Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. share price target

Ashoka Buildcon's (ASBL) Q4FY19 revenue and EBITDA scaled new highs as execution on HAM projects gained momentum. EBITDA margins were also healthy at 13.9%. High growth was supported by more debt (Rs 7.9bn as on Mar'19), but with improved recoveries in April, debt reduced to Rs 5.1bn. The order backlog as on Mar'19 stood at Rs 96.6bn (2.7x FY19 revenue, incl. L1 of Rs 12.6bn). Muted traffic led to a 2.6% YoY dip in gross toll collections to...

ASBL reported Q4FY19 sales of Rs13.1bn, above our and Street estimates, on betterthan-expected execution in key projects in both Power T&D; and Roads. EBITDA soared 124.8% yoy to Rs1.8bn on strong execution and better operating performance. During FY19, ASBL won orders worth Rs64bn and is L1 in orders worth Rs12.6bn from RVNL Punjab and Tumkur-Shivamogga Section package-IV HAM projects. ASBL's order...

RPAT grew 19.6% YoY to | 62.2 crore. The company recognised provisions amounting to | 39.8 crore towards GVR Infra Project Ltd in Q3FY19. Adjusting for this exceptional item, PAT growth was at 96.0% YoY to | 101.9 crore (our estimate: | 63.8 crore)...

We maintain BUY on ASBL with an increased TP of Rs 262/sh. ASBL achieved life high quarterly revenue with Construction/Sale of goods/BOT revenues at Rs 10.2/0.4/0.1bn (+66/+7/-10% YoY). ASBL, as a matter of prudence, recorded an exceptional provision of Rs 0.4bn against dues from GVR worth Rs 0.6bn).

31 January 2019 revenue grew 62% YoY to INR10.7b in 3QFY19, beating our estimate of INR8.6b. Sales were supported by better-than-estimated execution of projects in hand. Construction revenue grow 66% YoY supported by strong growth in the power T&D; segment (+94% YoY to INR2.5b). EBIDTA grew 99% YoY to INR1.5b, ahead of our estimate of INR1.0b, with margin improvement of 265bp to 14.0% from 11.3% in the year-ago period. Reported profit stood at INR622m (+32% YoY) below our estimate of INR700m. During the quarter, ASBL provided for INR398m towards its exposure to GVR Infra (total exposure at INR806m); adjusting for this PAT stood at INR895m (+91% YoY). ASBLs order backlog as at Dec18 stood at a healthy INR95b (including HAM EPC of INR42b). This provides revenue visibility of 3.

We maintain BUY on ASBL with increased TP of Rs 223/share (vs. Rs 210/sh earlier). Following a weak 1QFY19, ABL came back strongly with a 102% revenue growth YoY at Rs 7.6bn (42% ahead of estimates). Construction revenue came in at Rs 7.1bn, sale of goods at Rs 0.4bn and BOT at Rs 0.1bn. Blended EBITDA margins: 13.6% (+155bps YoY, +314bps QoQ, +150bps beat).

PAT grew strongly by 90.0% YoY to | 62.1 crore (our estimate: | 53.7 crore) mainly led by strong growth in revenues GVR Infra Project (GVR), one of the customers and joint venture partner for certain road annuity project, has been admitted for insolvency petition by National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). ABL has receivables worth | 82 crore from GVR. The company has...

EPC business on track to deliver 30% growth for FY19: Ashoka Buildcon's engineering procurement construction (EPC) execution has seen a muted start in FY19 (revenue decline of 3% YoY in 1QFY19), given the early onset of monsoons and lower availability of projects for execution. Ashoka Buildcon (ABL); however, is maintaining its 30% revenue growth target for FY19, given the progress it has witnessed on the new Hybrid Annuity Mode (HAM) projects (EPC order book of INR42b) on the financial closure front, and on momentum pick-up in the existing EPC order book. EPC execution is expected to pick up momentum from 2HFY19 as...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Ashoka Buildcon's (ABL) topline de-grew 2.6% YoY to | 683.7 crore (our estimate: | 865.2 crore) despite a strong order book (OB). As on Q1FY19, the company's OB was at | 10783 crore EBITDA margins contracted 148 bps YoY to 11.9% (our expectation: 12.5%) due to higher employee expenses (4.5% as percentage of revenue in Q1FY19 vs. 3.7% of revenue in Q1FY18) PAT grew 3.1% YoY to | 63.9 crore (our estimate: | 75.0 crore)...

We maintain BUY on ASBL with a bonus adjusted TP of Rs 225/share. ASBL delivered weak 1QFY19 performance with revenue 3.9% lower than our estimates. Construction revenue came in at Rs 6.3bn, sale of goods at Rs 0.4bn and BOT at Rs 0.1bn. Exceptional settlement Rs 0.1bn in Chittorgarh Bypass has been adjusted from revenue. Blended EBITDA margins were lower at 10.4% (-267bps YoY, -107bps QoQ) on account of a larger share of power segment (Rs 1.3bn in 1QFY19) in which ASBL generates lower margins.