Radico Khaitan Ltd. share price target

Upping the competitive ante; Growth + PE re-rating story Radico Khaitan (RDCK) AR highlight that it registered a healthy 12.5% volume growth in FY20 against industry growth of meager 0.5%. Premiumisation remains the key focus area and a growth driver. 11 out of 12 brands launched in last decade were in premium category. RDCK's brand portfolio is entirely organically developed. RDCK has four millionaire brands and two more in the pipe. RDCK was ranked as the no. 1 mid-cap company in Fortune India's The Next 500 viz. the most...

backdrop of Covid. Key highlights were (1) A modest volume de-growth of 10% YoY in Jun (2) 1/3rd debt reduction from Rs 3.8bn in Mar'20 to Rs 2.6bn as of Jun and (3) 740/240bps gross/EBITDA margin expansion. Over the last three years, RDCK experienced robust volume growth, price increases, premiumisation, RM tailwinds, and thus de-leveraging. RDCK's revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew at an impressive CAGR of 13/21/41% over FY17-20. Net debt declined from Rs 9.5bn in FY16, to Rs 2.6bn as of Jun-20. We remain constructive on RDCK story due to...

The company is seeing a good recovery as June sales were only down ~10% YoY and the company expects to reach normal revenue trajectory in H2FY21. On profitability front, gross margin expanded owing to combination of factors like better price realisation and favourable state and product mix and price increase in key southern state of Telangana. Benign input cost and higher product realisation are expected to aid in gross margin improvement and stringent cost control and judicious spend on sales promotion will...

Strong volume growth continues for IMFL category Despite the lockdown in the latter part of March, RKL was able to deliver double digit volume growth in Indian made foreign liquor (IMFL). For FY20, IMFL volume growth was ~12.5% whereas prestige and above segment grew 15.2% YoY to 7.05 million cases while regular and other segment volumes grew 11.4%. Volume growth was broad based across key states and key IMFL brands. RKL's new brands 8PM Black Whiskey and 1965 Spirit of Victory rum continued their strong growth trajectory. Revenue for FY20...

During FY17-19, Radico enjoyed an earnings upcycle which has moderated in 9MFY20. However, co's focus on investing in new launches, driving premiumisation and deleveraging B/S has kept the growth momentum steady. Robust cash flow generation over the last 2 years (Rs 5bn cumulative FCF) was redeployed to repay debt (Rs 3.6bn in Dec-19 as compared to Rs 7.9bn in Mar-17). We expect deleveraging to sustain, making the co debt free by FY22. Healthy cash flow and deleveraging will re-rate the stock. Radico Khaitan saw a blockbuster performance in 3Q with P&A; saw 21% volume growth (beating estimates). Liquor industry facing multiple headwinds (slowdown, flooding, liquidity stress and policy changes) in 9MFY20, despite, Radico posted 16% P&A; volume growth to 5.5mn cases. Ease in RM inflation and sustaining healthy volume should re-rate the stock. We value Radico at 22x (45% discount to UNSP) on Dec-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 527. Maintain BUY.

Revenues from core services fell marginally by 0.2% to US$155.2 million while DLM revenues dipped 36.8% QoQ to US$15.1 million. Weakness within core services was mainly due to drag in its largest vertical aerospace & defence (decline 5.1% QoQ) on account of a dip in spend in engineering design. Decline in transport (down 14.7% QoQ) vertical also contributed to the slowdown in core. On the positive side, communication recovered healthily with 2.3% QoQ growth. Going ahead, growth is expected to gradually recover in aerospace from Q4FY20E. Taking into account...

During FY17-19, Radico enjoyed an earnings upcycle which is expected to moderate in FY20. However, co is investing in new launches, driving premiumisation and deleveraging B/S which keeps the story alive. Robust cash flow generation over the last 2 years (Rs 4.4bn cumulative FCF) was redeployed to repay debt (Rs 3.5bn in Sep-19 as compared to 7.9bn in Mar-17). We expect deleveraging to sustain, making the co debt free by FY22. We expect the stock to re-rate as premiumisation and deleveraging continues. Radico Khaitans 2Q performance was soft but still stronger than industry growth. Liquor industry was impacted by slowdown, flooding, liquidity stress in the trade and stiff RM inflation. We believe these headwinds will moderate in 2H. We value Radico at 22x (45% discount to UNSP) on Sep-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 498. Maintain BUY.

During FY17-19, Radico enjoyed an earnings upcycle which is expected to moderate in FY20. However, co is investing in new launches, driving premiumisation and deleveraging B/S which keeps the story alive. Robust cash flow generation over the last 2 years (Rs 4.4bn cumulative FCF) was redeployed to repay debt (Rs 3bn in Jun-19 vs. 7.9bn in Mar-17). We expect deleveraging to sustain, making the co debt free by FY22. We expect the stock to re-rate as premiumisation and deleveraging continues. Radico Khaitans 1Q performance was mixed with beat in volume growth but in-line EBITDA. Hardening of RM cost led to crack in GM margins. Consistent market share gains and scaling new launches drives our revenue upgrade by 6% over FY19-21E. However, sustained RM pressure leads to only 1% EBITDA upgrade over FY19-21E. We value Radico at 26x (35% discount to UNSP) on Mar-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 492. Maintain BUY.

We believe that the broader mid-cap sell-off, concerns about rising raw material costs and fears about liquor ban in Andhra have overshadowed positive developments such as market share gains backed by product launches and continued debt reduction. RDCK is protected from the recent jump in Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) prices as it is backward-integrated with 100mn liters of ENA capacity. The recent price hikes by 10 states...