PVR INOX Ltd. share price target

PVR restarted operations from 30th Jul'21, garnering 4% occupancy levels, with 588 operational screens (~70% by Sep'21). The quarterly operating loss run-rate was contained at INR1.2b v/s an operating loss of INR810m YoY and INR1.3b QoQ, with revenue down 89% in 2QFY22 against preCOVID or 2QFY20 levels. A strong pipeline of movies to be released coupled with a fully operational network, despite some restrictions, should usher a revival. However, advancement of OTT platforms, shrinking of the exclusive window to four weeks for Cinemas, and recent capital raise could overplay on valuations....

PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 846 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box office, Food & Beverage (F&B;) and Advertisement (Ad). PVR reported revenue of Rs.59cr (Q4FY21-Rs.181cr) from core operations as Covid second wave impacted Q1FY22 operations significantly. 63% of total screens are permitted to operate with various restrictions...

EBITDA loss (without impact of Ind-AS116) was at | 121.5 crore against EBITDA loss of | 127.7 crore in Q4 as it has provided for lower rental expenses (| 30.9 crore vs. | 70.9 crore in Q4) given they are under...

PVR's operational performance was subdued with Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA loss of Rs1.2bn due to paucity of content and intermittent closures. However, with declining COVID cases, staggered re-opening is on the cards (13 states and 3 UT's have already given permission to re-open) and footfalls are likely to stabilize by 2HFY22. Though emergence of 2nd wave has delayed the recovery process prompting us to cut our footfall estimates by 31% to ~43mn in FY22 we remain constructive over the long term as content pipeline is strong which is expected to result in bunching up of releases post reopening. Further, we believe narrowing window gaps and higher distributor...

PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 842 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box office, Food & Beverage (F&B;) and Advertisement (Ad). PVR reported revenue of Rs.181Cr (Q3FY21-Rs.45Cr) from core operations as theatres operated in a staggered manner. PVR operated with 50% capacity restrictions during the quarter till restrictions imposed on operations for the last 15 days in some states due to the resurgence of covid-19. As of date, only Maharashtra allowed reopening with various restrictions Management is renegotiating rental agreements to save costs and limit...

Notwithstanding the strong response to regional releases, restrictions on occupancy and lack of major Bollywood releases meant footfalls remained limited. Footfalls at 5.8 million were down 70% YoY and ATP at 183 was down 10% YoY (largely owing to mix of releases tilted towards regional). The spend per head (for F&B;) was largely flattish YoY at | 95. Given the second wave, all screens have shut down since April, 2021. The management expects big budget releases from H2FY22 onwards. We bake in 40 screens addition in FY22E and 90 screens addition in FY23E....

PVR's net loss came in at INR1.7b (in line), with operating loss at INR1.2b (est. loss of INR695m), as a recovery in occupancy levels was gradual at 8%, with 50% capacity limits. However, South Indian movies reached 50-60% of pre covid levels and overall ATPs touched 10% below pandemic levels at...

PVR's net loss came in at INR1.7b (in line), with operating loss at INR1.2b (est. loss of INR695m), as a recovery in occupancy levels was gradual at 8%, with 50% capacity limits. However, South Indian movies reached 50-60% of pre covid levels and overall ATPs touched 10% below pandemic levels at...

PVR's operational performance was broadly in-line with our estimates. Emergence of 2nd wave has delayed the recovery process (all screens are currently shut) and footfall stabilization is expected in 2HFY22 given rising instances of localized lockdowns prompting us to cut our FY22E EBITDA estimates by ~43% odd. Nonetheless, we keep our FY23E estimates broadly intact and remain constructive over the long term as content pipeline is strong which is expected to result in bunching up of releases post reopening. We maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs1,429 (11x FY23EBITDA; no change in target multiple) as 1) the ongoing vaccination drive is expected...

The recent INR8b QIP may keep the liquidity situation manageable and avoid any further dilution, though leverage at 0.8x (FY21E D/E) could rise further. The continued restrictions on Cinema operations is certainly fuelling the OTT market, which could put pressure on occupancies. At FY22E EV/EBITDA, the stock trades 10% lower to pre-COVID historical valuations,...