PVR INOX Ltd. share price target

We expect H2CY24 to be meaningfully better for movie exhibition business compared to H1CY24. We note many producers delayed the scheduled releases, which has now led to a pent-up content pipeline.

PVR Inox reported revenue at Rs.1191 crore, down 5.2 q-o-q/ 8.8% y-o-y in line with our estimates of Rs.1194 crore. Company reported a weak quarter due to the lack of blockbuster movies and impacted by cricketing events and general elections, which led to postponement of releases.

PVR Inox’s results reflect the subpar box-office collections during the quarter due to a weak slate of movie-lineup, given the general elections happening over an extended period, and the IPL and T20 World Cup held during Q1.

We believe CY24 could be a tale of two halves for theatrical content market in India. Q1FY25 was disrupted by Lok Sabha elections and the busiest sporting season.

PVR Inox’s weak stock performance reflects the lack of major movie releases
over the last couple of quarters. After a subpar Q4FY24, Q1FY25 is also turning
out to be a damp squib, with the IPL, the T20 World Cup, and the general
elections being hurdles for movie releases.

PVR Inox is undertaking a slew of new initiatives such as: 1) Tying up with Devyani International to launch branded food courts near its properties, 2) trying franchisee owned company operated (FOCO) model to reduce capex
requirements

PVR Inox’s Q4 results reflect the subpar performance of a weak movie lineup,
sans any tentpole films. Footfalls, ATP, and SPH also saw a sequential decline
owing to weak performance of movies and promotional offers.