PVR INOX Ltd. share price target

The quarter was supported by a well-diversified content slate and improved admissions. Near-term risks include external disruptions and regulatory overhangs like Karnataka pricing. However, a strong rebound in Hollywood content, select Bollywood hits and stable regional traction offer comfort. The company is well-positioned to...

In Q1FY26, PVR Inox’s revenue grew 23.4% YoY/ 17.5% QoQ, driven by successful Bollywood and Hollywood releases as well as initiatives like Blockbuster Tuesday and F&B combo offers.

PVR INOX reported strong YoY growth in Q1 FY26, with admissions up 12% to 34 mn, ATP rising 8% to Rs 254, and SPH hitting a record Rs 148 (up 10%). Ad revenue grew 17% to Rs 110cr, while adjusted revenue stood at Rs 1,488cr, EBITDA at Rs 114cr, and net loss narrowed to Rs 34cr. Despite losing 67 lakh admissions, the company saw strong footfalls aided by affordable pricing and weekday value offers. It maintained its Rs 400425cr FY26 capex guidance, including Rs 250260cr for new screens and Rs 7075cr for renovations. Net debt reduced to Rs 892cr. The capitallight strategy continues, with 20 screens added (14 under FOCO/asset-light) and 127 signed. "Blockbuster Tuesday" has driven higher weekday traffic, and...

While our EBITDA estimates are broadly unchanged, our PAT estimates for FY26E/FY27E have undergone a meaningful upward revision as we tweak our depreciation and interest cost assumptions given PVRINOX IN is increasingly adding screens via FOCO and asset light route. In 1QFY26, IND-AS 116 impact on depreciation & interest was lower by 3.7% YoY to Rs3,436mn. PVRINOX IN reported better than expected performance with pre-IND AS EBITDA of Rs950mn (PLe Rs779mn) aided by 10.4% YoY rise in SPH to Rs148 and tight cost...

For FY26, capex is guided at Rs. 400425cr, with Rs. 250300cr for new projects and the rest for renovation, maintenance, and IT. Capex intensity is expected to *over or under performance to benchmark index...

PVRINOX reported better than expected performance with pre-IND AS EBITDA loss of Rs110mn (PLe loss of Rs366mn) led by better cost control (on same-store basis fixed cost was up 0.4% YoY to Rs7,639mn). Given the ongoing challenges surrounding footfall growth, PVRINOX is now in a reset mode where the focus is to 1) rationalize cost, 2) reduce debt and 3) migrate towards an asset light model with an aim to conserve cash. Progress on cost rationalization exercise is noteworthy as fixed cost per screen has remained flat at ~Rs20mn over the...

PVR Inox’s ad revenue grew ~36% QoQ to ~INR 1.48bn (highest quarterly ad-income post Covid) in Q3FY25, which in our view is an encouraging development.

Despite the release of the all-time blockbuster, Pushpa 2, PVRINOX (PVR)’s footfall remained stable QoQ at 25.7%, due to weaker performance from the Hindi language movies.

Nurturing Growth with a Shield of Margin Safety

PVR Inox’s occupancy reverted to ~26% in Q2FY25 despite a very weak content pipeline. Management has guided for significant improvement in Q3FY25.

PVR Inox’s Q2 results reflect better box office performance after a disappointing Q1. Footfalls, ATP, and SPH all improved in Q2 and were slightly higher than our estimates.

PVRINOX’s revenue stood at Rs. 1,622, up~36% q-o-q/down 19% y-o-y, beating our estimate of Rs. 1,581 crore.

Post Covid, PVR Inox’s stock performance has been tracking box office collections/upcoming pipeline. After a dull H1CY24, box office collections have picked up and are expected to further improve in Q3FY25.

After a muted Q1, PVR Inox is set for sequential improvement from Q2FY25. Plus, advertising income, which has been lagging pre-Covid levels should get a boost.

We have believed that a weak content pipeline is to be blamed for the weak performance of the movie exhibition industry over the last year and not a structural shift in consumer behaviour towards OTTs, etc.