Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. share price target

Q1FY26 standalone revenue of Rs. 9,928 crore was down 1.4 y-o-y due to 90% mix of RTM projects in transmission revenue.

Power Grid is riding on transmission tailwinds, as India is augmenting its transmission infrastructure to integrate renewables into the grid. It racked-up projects worth >INR 1trn in FY25; it won 24 transmission projects in bids with estimated cost of INR 920bn.

In 1QFY26, Power Grid Corporation (PWGR) reported a standalone (SA) revenue of INR99.3b (-1% YoY), 6% below our estimate.

The sector outlook is expected to remain positive due to industrialisation, urbanisation and e-mobility adoption in the economy along with increased capacity requirements for non-fossil fuel capacity, additional demand for electricity and energy storage requirements. It has a strong pipeline of work across segments and has won good new projects, which is expected to drive growth in the long term. It has a well-planned capex outlook for the next three years and a strong business outlook, especially in the transmission business, up to 2032. However,...

Power Grid had a strong FY25, adding projects worth >INR 1trn (project cost) to its kitty. It had an impressive run in competitive bids, winning 24 transmission projects (market share of >50%) with estimated cost of INR 920bn; the most notable was Khavda-Nagpur HVDC project worth INR 250bn.

Q4FY25 standalone revenue of Rs. 10,983 crore was slightly down y-o-y due to weaker capitalization in the last year. The transmission revenue of Rs. 10,904 crore was down 1.6% y-o-y while consultancy revenue of Rs. 298 crore increased 45% y-o-y.

Power Grid has won 11 TBCB projects after the Q3FY25 results and the company maintains a strong win ratio (>50%) in its projects. The company is on track for a large capex of Rs. ~3.3 lakh crore till FY32 because of the strong renewable energy capacity addition in India.

Power Grid has continued its momentum in project wins; it won bids for transmission projects worth INR 190bn in Q3FY25. In 9MFY25/ FY24, it won INR 760bn/ INR 500bn worth of new projects, respectively.

Standalone PAT was down 1% y-o-y to Rs. 4,128 crore due to a one-time benefit in the prior period and high regulatory deferral expense in the current quarter.

LICI: Solid quarter; valuations overdone cut to HOLD. ALKEM: Good quarter; cut to SELL on stretched valuations. Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key. PWGR: In-line quarter, FY25 capex hiked; maintain BUY. TATACONS: Strong run continues. DIVI: Healthy margin recovery, heady valuations. TPW: Dull quarter; high valuations maintain HOLD. ESCORTS: Weakness persists - maintain SELL. TRCL: Tepid quarter, high capex overhang retain SELL. Metals & Mining: Ferrous read-across: Steel recovery in CY24 - ArcelorMittal

Q2 revenue/PAT in line at Rs 104bn/Rs 38bn; ramp up of FY24 capex target to Rs 100bn from Rs 88bn a key positive