Phoenix Mills Ltd. share price target

PML's retail rental income grew only 9% YoY to | 249.9 crore in Q4FY19 while retail consumption growth was slow at 6% YoY to | 1,626.5 crore in Q4FY19. The slowdown in consumption is on account of ongoing infrastructure work and change in store format at a few retail assets (HSP & Palladium, PMC Chennai & PMC Bengaluru). Overall, with >20% area coming up for renewal in FY20E-21E at each of its key assets along with expansion mode, we expect PML's retail rental income to grow at a CAGR...

Additional 1.6msf can be built at HSP (0.5msf mall, 1.1msf office space); however, this is in the planning stage and finalization will take ~12 months. < Valuation view: We believe that PHNX offers a unique way to play India's retail growth story due to its (a) strong track record of execution and (b) scalability, as reflected in the line-up of five new under-construction malls and (c) robust cash generation. We value PHNX's retail assets based on the DCF-based NAV approach, assuming a cap rate of 8.5% (HSP - 8%) and a...

HNX is well on track to achieve 11-12msf portfolio by FY23. Currently, the company has a retail portfolio of 5.9msf (operational) and 4.6msf (under construction), with plans to add another 1-2 new assets -taking the total portfolio to 11-12msf by FY23. The company is developing five new malls - three under the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) platform (PMC Wakad, PMC Hebbal, and PMC Indore), Palladium Ahmedabad (a 50:50 alliance with BSafal group), and PMC Lucknow (100%self-owned).

Steady Performance Across Malls; Capex Activity on Track: PHNX's revenue grew 6%/5% YoY/QoQ to Rs. 4404 Mn in-line with our estimates. EBITDA margins expanded by 90 bps YoY to 50.5% vs our estimates of 49%.

Phoenix Mills' (PML) topline grew 5.7% YoY to | 440.4 crore almost in line with our estimate of | 448.6 crore in Q3FY19. On a sequentially basis, revenues grew 8.8% in Q3FY19...

Phoenix Mills (PML) is a market leader and owner of prime malls in India. It started the real estate business with its iconic High Street Phoenix mall. Sailing on its retail-led mixed-use development model, PML has an operational asset portfolio of eight operational retail assets aggregating 5.9 msf and four operational commercial assets aggregating 1.16 msf. Going ahead, PML plans to almost double its retail portfolio and triple its commercial asset portfolio. Consequently, we expect its rental income to almost double to | 1702 crore in FY18-23E. We also highlight that PML is...

6 November 2018 PHNXs revenue increased 9.2% YoY to segment (+11% to INR2,839m). EBITDA grew 11% YoY to INR1,981m (our 2QFY19/1HFY19 includes a realized gain of INR358m on the sale of investments of 0.5m equity shares of Graphite India. Interest expense of INR917m (+7% YoY) came in higher than our estimate of INR865m. Consequently, PAT of INR620m (48.5% YoY) missed our estimate of INR664m. Revenues grew by 7% YoY to INR8,179m, EBITDA by 11% YoY to INR3,935m and PAT by 44% YoY to INR1,217m. investment of INR18b, ISML has already invested INR12.8b on acquisitions (including Indore asset, PMC 2 at Wakad in Pune, PMC 2 at Hebbal in Bangalore), which also includes land cost and initial expenses. (2) Lucknow retail asset to begin operations by Diwali next year. We believe that PHNX provides a unique way to play Indias retail growth story.

On a standalone basis ( only High Street Phoenix (HSP)and Palladium, Mumbai), income from operations increased 6% YoY toINR3,972m in FY18 from INR3,759m in FY17. On a consolidated basis, income from operations decreased by 11 % to INR16,198m in FY18 from INR18,246min FY17. The decrease in revenues was on account of the Classic Mall Development Company (PMC Chennai) being classified as an associate against a subsidiary previously. Total retail income from malls stood at INR10,595m,down 11% YoY. Hospitality and other revenue came in at INR3,429m, up 12%YoY. Revenue from residential projects stood at INR1,562m, while commercial revenue was INR611m. Consolidated EBITDA decreased by 8% to INR7,774m inFY18 from INR8,469m in FY17; however, consolidated margins have increased to 48% in FY18 from 46% in FY17

Performance of the company during Q1FY19 was in line with our estimates. Rental growth was driven by the strong operational performance of Market City malls PMC Chennai, PMC Pune & PMC Mumbai as well as High Street Phoenix & Palladium. Commercial and hospitality segment also registered 35%/6% YoY growth respectively led by improvement in rentals and ARRs. High Street Phoenix performance was led by rental improvements as North Sky zone and new F&B; outlets which has an area of 50,000 sq ft comprising of nearly 13 retailers has started contributing towards improvement in rental income....

9 August 2018 PHNXs revenue grew 4% YoY to INR4,132m (est. EBITDA grew 11% YoY to INR1,953m (est. INR2,207m), with the margin expanding 280bp YoY to 47.3% (est. Interest expense declined 6% YoY to INR846m (est. PAT, thus, increased 40% YoY to INR597m (est. of INR656m), led by a strong operational performance from the Retail and Commercial segments, along with lower finance costs. Consumption was up only 5% YoY to INR17b off a high base (advancement of sales in the run up to GST rollout, with sales rising 19% YoY in 1QFY18). Retail rental income increased 15% YoY to INR2,419m in 1QFY19, driven by a strong operational performance of PMC Pune, Mumbai, Chennai, and HSP and Palladium, Mumbai. Commercial office income increased 35% YoY to INR149m due to increased contribution from Art Guild House, PMC Kurla.