Phoenix Mills Ltd. share price target

As per company, The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) has clocked mall consumption of Rs6.6bn in Nov’21 which is 116% of Nov’19 levels and Rs6.7bn in Oct’21 which is 91% of Oct’19 levels. While the threat of a fresh round of Covid induced mall closures remains a risk, we expect mall rentals to revert to pre-Covid levels by Q4FY22 as consumption continues to improve.

Reported revenues grew ~72.8% YoY to | 371.3 crore. Retail revenues grew ~71.6% YoY at | 233.5 crore while hospitality revenues were up ~275% YoY at | 34.5 crore. While Q2 consumption was at ~74% of pre-Covid, October 2021 consumption across retail portfolio was at ~| 660 crore, at 90% of October 2019. Commercial remained a resilient segment, which...

PML has an operational retail area of ~7 mn sq ft spread over nine operational malls and is developing another five malls with 6+ mn sq ft of retail space. It has a GLA of 1.6 mn sq ft in the commercial segment. It plans to add 5.3 mn sq ft of commercial office space...

PML rental income in Q4FY21 at | 216.6 crore was at ~97% of Q4FY20 and up 23% QoQ. FY21 rentals at | 563 crore was ~55% of FY20. Additionally, retail collections witnessed sharp improvement (up 42% QoQ) at | 370 crore during Q4FY21. Currently, consumption, footfall remained impacted by lockdowns led closure and PML expects to resume discussions with retailers close to reopening. However, it remains confident that recovery could be much quicker post reopening. We conservatively bake in rentals at | 868 crore (~15% lower than FY20 levels on a like-to-like basis), given the likely...

Retail continues to witness a demand recovery, while the same for the Office segment largely remains steady with the recently completed office space seeing increased leasing activity. The Hospitality segment is likely to remain subdued in the short term. PHNX remains one of the best proxy plays on India's consumption story in the medium-to-long term. Reiterate Buy....

PML rental income in Q3FY21 at | 176.1 crore (~67% of Q3FY20) was higher than H1FY21 rental (at ~| 170.5 crore at ~33% of H1FY20). Additionally, retail collections saw a sharp improvement to | 260 crore, | 390 crore in Q3FY21, 9MFY21, respectively. This was largely driven by overall consumption improvement. Going forward, the management expects consumption to reach 85-90% by FY21-end and fully normalised levels (along with contractual escalations) in FY22E. We expect ~45% decline on like to like basis in rental revenues (ex-CAM charges) in FY21 vs. earlier...

The proceeds from the proposed transaction are intended to be utilised as growth capital for further expansion and acquisition of greenfield, brownfield, operational and/or distressed mall opportunities. Since it is a mix of primary infusion and secondary...

PML remains a quasi play on India's consumption story, notwithstanding this weak transient phase in FY21, given the quality of assets, healthy balance sheet & strategic expansion plans. The QIP fund raise of ~| 1089 crore has boosted the gross cash position and PML is poised to lap up a few assets as well as sail through with comfortable liquidity. With only five to six major retail mall developers currently in India, and given PML's USP of operating large format properties efficiently, it is likely to emerge as a superior player in the medium to long term. We maintain BUY rating with an...

PML remains a quasi play on India's consumption story, notwithstanding a steep impact on retail & hospitality portfolio in FY21, given the quality of assets, healthy balance sheet & strategic expansion plans. With only five to six major retail mall developers currently in India, and given PML's USP of operating large format properties efficiently, it is likely to emerge as a superior player in the medium to long term. Recommencement of key malls of Mumbai and Pune are likely to provide some relief in cash flows. We...