Phoenix Mills Ltd. share price target

PML rental income in Q4FY21 at | 216.6 crore was at ~97% of Q4FY20 and up 23% QoQ. FY21 rentals at | 563 crore was ~55% of FY20. Additionally, retail collections witnessed sharp improvement (up 42% QoQ) at | 370 crore during Q4FY21. Currently, consumption, footfall remained impacted by lockdowns led closure and PML expects to resume discussions with retailers close to reopening. However, it remains confident that recovery could be much quicker post reopening. We conservatively bake in rentals at | 868 crore (~15% lower than FY20 levels on a like-to-like basis), given the likely...

Retail continues to witness a demand recovery, while the same for the Office segment largely remains steady with the recently completed office space seeing increased leasing activity. The Hospitality segment is likely to remain subdued in the short term. PHNX remains one of the best proxy plays on India's consumption story in the medium-to-long term. Reiterate Buy....

PML rental income in Q3FY21 at | 176.1 crore (~67% of Q3FY20) was higher than H1FY21 rental (at ~| 170.5 crore at ~33% of H1FY20). Additionally, retail collections saw a sharp improvement to | 260 crore, | 390 crore in Q3FY21, 9MFY21, respectively. This was largely driven by overall consumption improvement. Going forward, the management expects consumption to reach 85-90% by FY21-end and fully normalised levels (along with contractual escalations) in FY22E. We expect ~45% decline on like to like basis in rental revenues (ex-CAM charges) in FY21 vs. earlier...

The proceeds from the proposed transaction are intended to be utilised as growth capital for further expansion and acquisition of greenfield, brownfield, operational and/or distressed mall opportunities. Since it is a mix of primary infusion and secondary...

PML remains a quasi play on India's consumption story, notwithstanding this weak transient phase in FY21, given the quality of assets, healthy balance sheet & strategic expansion plans. The QIP fund raise of ~| 1089 crore has boosted the gross cash position and PML is poised to lap up a few assets as well as sail through with comfortable liquidity. With only five to six major retail mall developers currently in India, and given PML's USP of operating large format properties efficiently, it is likely to emerge as a superior player in the medium to long term. We maintain BUY rating with an...

PML remains a quasi play on India's consumption story, notwithstanding a steep impact on retail & hospitality portfolio in FY21, given the quality of assets, healthy balance sheet & strategic expansion plans. With only five to six major retail mall developers currently in India, and given PML's USP of operating large format properties efficiently, it is likely to emerge as a superior player in the medium to long term. Recommencement of key malls of Mumbai and Pune are likely to provide some relief in cash flows. We...

Retail rental income impacted sharply by Covid-19 PML reported retail rental income decline of 11% YoY to | 222.7 crore mainly due to Covid-19 led lockdown and consequent lower trading density in March, 2020. Operational malls reported overall consumption decline of 15% YoY to | 1387.4 crore in Q4FY20 despite strong consumption growth of 15-16%, 8-9% in January, February, 2020 for HSP and other properties, respectively. The monitorable will be resumption of malls in Mumbai, which forms ~45%+ of retail revenue. Near term pain is imminent. We expect...

30 June 2020 The near-term uncertainty in PHNXs business, especially retail malls (one of the worst hit businesses due to COVID-19), remains a challenge. However, in the medium-to-long term, PHNX still remains one of the best proxy plays on Indias consumption story. Revenue declined 45% YoY to INR3,992m (v/s est. EBITDA margin declined 100bp YoY to 51.2% (in line with est. EBITDA stood at INR2,043m (v/s est. Adj. PAT declined 75% YoY to INR467m (v/s est. Retail revenue declined 7% YoY to INR2,705m, largely impacted by COVID-19 led countrywide lockdowns in the second half of Mar20.

Real estate players (like all major sectors) have faced the brunt of Covid-19, which is apparent from the stocks having seen a sharp correction in the past month. Segment wise, mall developers would be the first casualty with closure of malls and invocation of Force Majeure by at least some tenants. Similarly, home buyers' demand as well as construction stoppage will impact the residential segment. On the other hand, office segment cash flows remain protected. We expect the ground level situation to remain operationally challenging for all companies in our coverage universe amid...