Phoenix Mills Ltd. share price target

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Mar’23 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 111% of Mar’19 levels (Mar’20 was first Covid impacted month hence not comparable). However, Mar’23 LTL consumption was at 106% of Mar’22 levels. As we have been highlighting, while the FY23 LTL consumption was expected to range between 13-14% of FY20 (pre-Covid) levels adjusted for Mar’20 mall closures, with a high base of FY23, we model for 5% LTL consumption/rental CAGR from FY24E.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Q3FY23 LTL consumption of Rs23.6bn which stood at 114% of Q3FY20 levels. As per the company, while there were some concerns of a possible demand slowdown in Dec’22, Jan’23 LTL consumption numbers remain strong at 109% of Jan’20 levels.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) saw Dec’22 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at Rs8.2bn or 108% of Dec’19 levels. While the Dec’22 LTL growth is lower than the 15% LTL growth seen between Apr-Nov’22, we believe that a high base in Dec’19 (Black Friday sale was in Dec’19 vs. Nov’22 in FY23) has had a marginal impact.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) has announced the completion of the Surat mall land acquisition for Rs5.1bn in partnership with Ahmedabad based Bsafal Group.

The Phoenix Mills’ (PHNX) saw Nov’22 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls
at Rs6.3bn or 113% of Nov’19 levels and is lower than Oct’22 LTL consumption growth of 18% as the festivals of Dussehra and Diwali both fell in the month of Oct’22. For YTD FY23 (Apr-Nov’22).

The Phoenix Mills’ (PHNX) saw Oct’22 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at Rs8.7bn or 118% of Oct’19 levels and mirrors the Q2FY23 LTL consumption growth which was at 118% of Q2FY20 levels.

The Phoenix Mills’ (PHNX) saw Sep’22 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at Rs5.8bn or 115% of Sep’19 levels and mirrors the Jul’22 LTL consumption growth which was at 120% of Jul’19 levels and Aug’22 LTL consumption growth which was at 114% of Aug’19 levels.