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The Baseline
09 Oct 2024, 05:50PM
Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - October 09, 2024
By Divyansh Pokharna

 

1. Polycab India:

Hem Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this consumer durables company with a target price of Rs 8,427, indicating a potential upside of 13.9%. In Q1FY25, Polycab had reported a revenue growth of 20.8% YoY to Rs 4,698 crore. The company’s fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) segment grew 21% YoY, driven by increased demand for fans following a heatwave across several parts of the country. However, EBITDA margins decreased by 171 bps YoY to 12.4%, due to a decline in international business growth. 

Analyst Mudit Jain said, “We expect the company to deliver strong numbers in the upcoming quarters, driven by rising demand from real estate and infrastructure activities.” He projects the share of organized players in the wires and cable business will increase from 78% in FY24 to 85% by FY28, fueled by premiumization. Polycab currently holds a 25% market share in the domestic organized sector. The company also aims to increase its international business share to 10% of total revenue by FY26 and is launching a distribution-based model in the US.

Jain anticipates the company’s revenue and PAT CAGR to grow at 16.5% and 15% respectively over FY25-26. He believes this growth will be driven by rising electricity demand in urban areas, fueled by industry, business, and housing.

2. Nazara Technologies:

Prabhudas Lilladher upgrades a ‘Buy’ rating on gaming company Nazara Technologies, with a target price of Rs 1,185, suggesting a 21.1% upside. Analysts Jinesh Joshi, Stuti Beria and Dhvanit Shah highlight the company’s strategic investment in Moonshine Technology (MTPL), which operates the online poker platform PokerBaazi, holding a 50-55% market share. Nazara acquired a 47.7% stake in MTPL for Rs 9.8 billion, paying Rs 5.9 billion in cash and issuing 2.5 million shares. 

The analysts point out that MTPL reported a revenue of Rs 4.1 billion in FY24, with a 10% EBITDA margin. This acquisition is expected to strengthen Nazara’s presence in the growing real-money gaming market, with MTPL’s revenues projected to grow at a 30% CAGR over the next three years.

Joshi, Beria and Shah note that they incorporated MTPL's projections into their estimates, since Nazara holds a 47.7% non-controlling stake. Consolidation is expected once the conversion of compulsorily convertible preference shares (CCPS) occurs. They project a revenue CAGR of 23%, along with EBITDA and PAT CAGRs of 41% and 47.6%, respectively, over FY 25-27.

3. Petronet LNG:

Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this oil distribution company with a target price of Rs 425, indicating an upside of 20.7%. Analysts Sabri Hazarik, Harsh Maru and Arya Patel highlight that the company’s Dahej terminal saw 110% utilization in Q1FY25, largely driven by the power sector, which has now cooled off. They expect Q2 to be seasonally weaker but project that utilization will approach 100%, suggesting a full-year run rate exceeding 100%.

Petronet LNG is facing concerns about possible changes in tariffs for its buyers, known as offtakers. However, the company’s management says that any tariff changes will be minor and won't affect the interests of minority shareholders, as “offtakers are also company stakeholders”.

Hazarika, Maru and Patel note that Exxon’s second contract for 1.2 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) will begin in FY26-27, along with a 5 mmtpa expansion of Dahej terminal. This is expected to drive volume growth for Petronet, benefiting from higher Kochi terminal tariffs.

4. V2 Retail:

Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this department stores chain with a target price of Rs 1,754. This indicates an upside of 24.8%. V2 Retail added 12 new stores during Q2FY25, bringing the total store count to 139. The management plans to add 60 new stores in FY25 while maintaining double-digit same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the rest of the year. Analyst Palash Kawale expects 50 store additions and 20% SSSG for FY25.

The company aims for a 30-40% sales CAGR over the next three to four years, which is expected to drive margin expansion and improve store performance. V2 Retail also aims to maintain a 20% return on equity (RoE) and achieve Rs 1,800 crore in sales by FY25.

The company is focused on improving revenue per square foot, which grew by 30% YoY during Q2FY25. Kawale notes that value retailing in India is changing as consumers become more selective and aim for higher-quality products. This shift highlights the need for better shopping experiences, fashionable products, affordability, and larger wardrobes, with organized retail replacing unorganized formats.

5. Jindal Steel & Power:

Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this iron and steel products company with a target price of Rs 1,200, indicating an upside potential of 20.1%. Analysts Alok Deora and Sonu Upadhyay highlight the company’s Rs 310 billion capital expenditure plan, which will increase steel production capacity to 15.9 million tons (mt) annually. A significant portion of this investment (75%) will be directed towards the expansion of the steel production plant in Angul, Odisha, with the remainder allocated to coal mines and other projects.

The analysts note that the company has already spent Rs 150 billion and plans to invest the remaining amount funds over the next three years. Post completion of these new projects, flat steel products will represent 55% of the total output, up from the current 35%. 

Deora and Upadhyay are optimistic about the company’s financial health as the company has deleveraged its balance sheet from Rs 391 billion of net debt in FY19 to approximately Rs 104 billion as of Q1FY25. They expect steel production volumes of 9 mt in FY25 (an 18% YoY increase) and 11 mt in FY26 (a 25% YoY increase).

 

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 

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