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The Baseline
04 Jul 2023
Five analyst picks this week
By Suhas Reddy
  1. Trent: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this retailing company with a target price of Rs 2,025. This implies an upside of 15.1%. The analysts at the brokerage remain positive about the firm’s growth prospects due to its “consistent double-digit same-store-sales growth (SSSG) that beats peers and well-defined store expansion strategy”. They add that the company has maintained its leadership position in FY23 with same-store sales growth in the Westside brands and the expansion of the Zudio business. 

The analysts are also upbeat about Trent's ability to generate a healthy cash flow of Rs 450 crore, despite a capex of Rs 215 crore in FY23. They expect robust revenue growth over the next two financial years to be driven by consistent high footfall, growing online traction, increased billing size and new store additions. The analysts anticipate the retail giant’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 23% over FY23-25.

  1. Chalet Hotels: ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this hotels company with a target price of Rs 603, indicating a potential upside of 37%. Analyst Adhidev Chattopadhyay is optimistic about the company's future because of its strategy to expand through ownership. This includes the expansion of existing projects and entry into long-term leases. He expects Chalet Hotels' EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 18%, with profit margins around 45% in the coming years.

Chattopadhyay believes that the company is well-positioned to take advantage of the hotel industry's expected growth over the next five years. He highlights that the company has set a target to increase its room capacity by 40% by FY26. Additionally, Chalet plans to expand its rental portfolio to reduce risk, considering the cyclical nature of the hotel business. Chattopadhyay predicts robust revenue growth for the company, with an expected CAGR of 11%. This would bring its revenue to an estimated Rs 1,390 crore in FY26.

  1. Bharat Forge: HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this industrial products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 998. This implies an upside of 18.7%. Analysts Aniket Mhatre and Sonaal Sharma are upbeat about the company’s long-term growth prospects given its diversified portfolio mix, which provides a more stable revenue stream. They also expect the company’s subsidiaries in Europe and the US to gradually recover in the coming quarters on the back of a robust orderbook. 

The analysts believe that investors' concerns regarding “a slowdown in US Class 8 truck orders in 2024 hurting business growth, are exaggerated as “the company has multiple growth drivers to offset this slowdown”. They expect new defence orders, an order backlog in aerospace, and rising exports to drive top-line growth. Mhatre and Sharma estimate the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 12.6% over FY23-25. 

  1. Ultratech Cement: Axis Securities maintains a 'Buy' recommendation on this cement and cement products company, targeting a price rise of 10.5% to Rs 9,350. Analysts Uttam Kumar Srimal and Shikha Doshi have an optimistic view about the company's future due to several factors. First, they anticipate an expansion in the firm's production capacity to meet the growing market demand for cement. Second, they predict that a decline in fuel costs will lead to an improvement in the company's profit margins in the upcoming quarters.

The analysts also highlight the potential benefits of digitising sales channels, using a blended cement strategy, and optimising resource utilisation. All of these are expected to boost the company's profit margins. They also acknowledge the significant industry experience of the company's promoters, which spans several decades. Additionally, the company carries a low debt burden and consistently generates positive cash flow, according to Srimal and Doshi. They project a CAGR of 9% in the company's volume and revenue for FY23-25.

  1. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co: Motilal Oswal keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this general insurance company and raises the target price to Rs 1,550 from Rs 1,400. This indicates an upside of 16.6%. Analysts Prayesh Jain, Nitin Aggarwal and Nemin Doshi believe that the Indian general insurance industry is poised for robust growth, driven by new reforms and initiatives introduced by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDAI). They are positive about the company’s strategy to capitalise on industry tailwinds, with market share expansion, improving profitability, robust risk management and good customer service. 

In the health segment, the analysts expect the firm’s profitability to improve through price hikes and enhanced efficiency of the agency channel. However, they anticipate slower growth in the motor segment “as the company awaits the rationalisation of pricing in the Own Damage (OD) insurance segment”. The analysts estimate the firm’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 20% over CY23-25. 

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

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