We believe that the current valuation multiples (8.5x EV/e FY21) are already pricing in a full privatisation scenario. We believe that only potential improvement in earnings and cash flows can drive re-rating of the stock. But this will obviously be realized with a lag and is contingent upon the stake acquirer's ability to bring about efficiencies. Our SOTP target is Rs 452/sh (5.5x Dec-21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Dec-21E EV/e for marketing and pipeline business and Rs 145/sh for other investments). We maintain NEUTRAL on BPCL with a TP of Rs 452 (vs consensus TP of Rs 513) following a performance in-line with our PAT estimates in 3QFY20. 8.2% beat at EBITDA level was due to higher inventory gains of Rs 5.32bn vs est Rs 3.63bn.