HPCL is doubling its existing capacity at its Visakh refinery from 8.3mmtpa to 15mmtpa by FY21E (outlay Rs. 210bn) and increasing it from the current 7.5mmtpa to 9.5mmtpa (outlay Rs 50bn) at its Mumbai refinery. This will drive the earnings for its refinery business. We remain constructive on HPCL in a falling crude price scenario as it will reduce Govt's intervention in auto fuel pricing, reduce working capital and put subsidy burden overhang to rest. Our SOTP target is Rs 381 (6x Jun 21E EV/e for standalone refining and pipeline, 7x EV/e for marketing and Rs 54/sh from other investments). Maintain BUY. Despite an underwhelming Q1, we maintain BUY on HPCL given (1) 55% refinery capacity addition to 24.5mmt by FY21E, and (2) Restoration to normative marketing margins post elections that will benefit HPCL the most of all OMCs as this business contributes ~60% to EBITDA.