Natco Pharma delivered impressive results with a strong Q4, with EBITDA rising 157% YoY, and 22% above analyst estimates. FY17 overall revenues grew an impressive 91% to Rs. 20.65 billion, while net profits expanded 209%. An especially active flu season in the US and increased market share for the company's gTamiflu resulted in strong numbers for the company. 

The management says that it is now focusing on increasing its investments in India, and other international markets given improving regulatory standards. Regulatory standards being strengthened in Indian markets, with inspections now mandatory for every product approval, Natco believes, will reduce competition from cheap but low-quality medications, improving opportunity here.

In the case of US, the company is pushing for a significant scale-up, cashing in the first wave of limited competition products (gTamiflu, gNuvugil, gEntocort, gDoxil), while also planning 3 new launches for FY18 (gVidaza, gFosrenol, gTamiflu oral suspension). A strong US pipeline is expected to help Natco weather intensifying competition in the US market better than other pharma companies.

In the short term, the GST is set to have an impact on the June quarter, but Natco says it expects sales to bounce back in July as the business adjusts. The company's new Vizag facility is expected to open in July 2017. Axis Direct and other analysts have been bullish on the firm despite some short-term GST related upheaval. The share price of the company hit a new year high  today - it has gained over 80% so far in 2017.