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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    10 May 2017
    Markets recover, Bharti Airtel takes a big hit on profits due to Jio effect

    Markets recover, Bharti Airtel takes a big hit on profits due to Jio effect

    The BSE Sensex recovered from insipid trading to hit new highs early on Wednesday, with trading enthusiasm up after foreign funds bought into stocks and forecasts of a normal monsoon continue to hold.  Alembic has gained after the company showed a profitable quarter, compared to a loss of Rs 1.46 crore in the same quarter last year.

    Bharti Airtel reported a higher than expected 72% drop in quarterly profit, missing expected targets. The company has been hit by the entry of Reliance Jio, and its offerings of free data and voice services that went on till March 31. Net profit fell to Rs 373.4 crore for the quarter ended 31 March, from Rs 1,319.2 crore in the same quarter last year.

    Stock in spotlight: Petronet LNG, which has gained sharply today after it reported a 19% rise in net profit in the fourth quarter of FY17. 

    Photo of the day: A vendor sells pictures of Tagore on his birthday. Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    07 May 2017
    Stock reports for the week: May 1 - May 7

    Stock reports for the week: May 1 - May 7

    Over 60 stock research reports landed this week, including reports from ICICI Securities, Axis Direct, HDFC Securities and more.  New IPO notes on HUDCO have also been published. Stockpick for the week is Intellect Design Arena, which HDFC Securities has identified as "back on track" with a high upside. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-05-06Housing and Urban Developmen.. --%IPO Note-HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-05-05Oberoi Realty Limited 405.000.47%NEUT.403.10HDFC Securities
    1x
    2017-05-05Exide Industries Limited 262.008.60%Buy241.25HDFC Securities and 1 other
    1x
    2017-05-05Multi Commodity Exchange of .. 1558.0039.11%Buy1119.95HDFC Securities
    2017-05-05Mahindra CIE Automotive Limi.. --%ACC.243.15Way2Wealth and 1 other
    2017-05-05ICICI Bank Limited --%-298.55Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other1x
    2017-05-05Dewan Housing Finance Corpor.. --%-432.05Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other1x
    2017-05-05Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limi.. 632.007.57%Hold587.55Nirmal Bang and 1 other1x
    2017-05-05Housing Development Finance .. 1750.0013.16%Buy1546.50ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2017-05-05Tata Communications Limited 650.001.44%Hold640.75ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-05-05Greaves Cotton Limited 176.006.47%Hold165.30ICICI Securities Limited
    1x
    2017-05-04Intellect Design Arena Limited 233.0080.69%Buy128.95HDFC Securities
    2017-05-04IndusInd Bank Limited 2008.0042.63%Buy1407.80Ventura
    2017-05-04Aurobindo Pharma Limited 900.0052.62%Buy589.70Motilal Oswal
    2017-05-04Shriram City Union Finance L.. --%-2156.00Chola Wealth Direct
    2017-05-04Lakshmi Vilas Bank Limited --%Results Update178.85Axis Direct
    2017-05-04Persistent Systems Limited 697.0020.17%Buy580.00Axis Direct 1x
    2017-05-04Rallis India Limited 245.003.44%Hold236.85Axis Direct
    2017-05-04Shriram Transport Finance Co.. 1130.0013.00%Hold1000.00Axis Direct 1x
    2x
    2017-05-04Supreme Industries Limited 1268.007.82%Buy1176.00Axis Direct and 1 other
    2017-05-04Syngene International Limited 500.005.99%Hold471.75Axis Direct and 1 other
    2017-05-04TVS Motor Company Limited 481.00-2.24%Hold492.00Axis Direct 1x
    2017-05-04Ujjivan Financial Services L.. 470.0035.62%Buy346.55Axis Direct and 1 other
    1x
    2017-05-04Wipro Limited 437.0012.33%Sell498.45Axis Direct and 1 other
    1x
    2017-05-04Zensar Technologies Limited 1000.0013.99%Buy877.25Axis Direct
    2017-05-04Federal Bank Limited 121.003.95%Buy116.40Axis Direct and 1 other4x
    2017-05-04SQS India BFSI Limited 574.006.54%Hold538.75Axis Direct
    2017-05-04Zee Learn Limited 72.0056.35%Buy46.05Axis Direct
    2017-05-04Marico Limited 341.0011.80%Hold305.00ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2x
    2017-05-04Ajanta Pharma Limited 1880.0015.27%Buy1631.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-05-03UPL Limited 780.00-3.44%NEUT.807.80HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-05-03Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Lim.. 1165.0037.67%Buy846.25HDFC Securities 1x
    2017-05-03IRB InvIT Fund IPO --%IPO Subscribe-Nirmal Bang and 1 other
    2017-05-03Oil India Limited 537.0066.77%Buy322.00Prabhudas Lilladhar 1x
    2017-05-03Parag Milk Foods Limited 250.003.97%NEUT.240.45Motilal Oswal
    2017-05-03Gujarat State Petronet Limited 199.008.77%Buy182.95Axis Direct
    2017-05-03Adani Ports and Special Econ.. 396.0014.82%Buy344.90Axis Direct 2x
    1x
    2017-05-03Ashok Leyland Limited 109.0031.09%Buy83.15Axis Direct
    2017-05-03Bharat Forge Limited 1218.0010.73%Buy1100.00Axis Direct 1x
    1x
    2017-05-03HDFC Bank Limited 1740.0013.57%Buy1532.10Axis Direct
    1x
    2017-05-03Hexaware Technologies Limited 210.00-11.67%Hold237.75Axis Direct 1x
    2017-05-03Hindustan Zinc Limited 269.007.30%Hold250.70Axis Direct 2x
    4x
    2017-05-03MindTree Limited 500.000.83%Buy495.90Axis Direct 3x
    2017-05-03Reliance Industries Limited .. 1600.0020.43%Buy1328.60Axis Direct
    1x
    2017-05-03UltraTech Cement Limited 3959.00-8.43%Hold4323.35Axis Direct 1x
    2x
    2017-05-03Vedanta (Sesa Sterlite Limit.. 278.0024.47%Buy223.35Axis Direct
    2017-05-03Ambuja Cements Limited 177.0028.14%Sell246.30Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other1x
    2x
    2017-05-03Bharat Financial Inclusion L.. 985.0024.74%Buy789.65Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other
    1x
    2017-05-03Dishman Pharmaceuticals and .. 380.0021.48%Buy312.80Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-05-03INOX Leisure Limited 348.0025.52%Buy277.25Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other1x
    1x
    2017-05-03JSW Energy Limited --%-64.30Reliance Securities and 1 other
    2017-05-03EPC INDUSTRIE LTD. 210.0025.75%Buy167.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-05-03Kansai Nerolac Paints Limited 445.0011.06%Buy400.70ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2017-05-03JK Tyre & Industries Limited 215.0021.78%Buy176.55ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-05-02Coromandel International Lim.. 385.00-2.37%Buy394.35HDFC Securities
    2017-05-02Navin Fluorine International.. 3300.008.02%NEUT.3055.00HDFC Securities
    1x
    2017-05-02Dabur India Limited 325.0019.27%Buy272.50HDFC Securities and 1 other
    1x
    2017-05-02RBL Bank Limited --%Strategy Note560.75Motilal Oswal and 1 other
    2017-05-02Coal India Limited 335.0020.09%Buy278.95Motilal Oswal 1x
    2017-05-02Bajaj Auto Limited 3190.0010.16%Buy2895.80Reliance Securities
    2017-05-02Astra Microwave Products Lim.. 142.008.73%Hold130.60Karvy
    2017-05-02Biocon Limited 1020.00-1.69%Hold1037.50ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-05-02The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Lim.. 95.0015.29%Buy82.40ICICI Securities Limited
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    The Baseline
    06 May 2017
    Q4 results update: Eicher Motors, CTS, Avenue Supermarts

    Q4 results update: Eicher Motors, CTS, Avenue Supermarts

    Eicher Motors announced an impressive 33.9% growth in its consolidated net profit, to Rs 459.4 crore against Rs 343.1 crore during the same period last year. The company was able to sustain 30% operating profit margins in the March quarter despite rising input costs, keeping its eye on operational expenses and retaining customers despite price hikes. The company announced a dividend of Rs. 100 per share.

    Avenue Supermarts (DMart) is expected to announce its results today. Its share price was sharply up over 4% on Friday close, with investors hoping for a strong performance, the first quarterly result since the company's IPO. In the past four years, based on the firm's disclosures, the company's net profits and revenues have grown in the high double digits - at 51% and 40%. 

    Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTS), the US headquartered software company, reported revenues of $3.55 billion for the quarter ending March 2017, a higher than expected 10.7% growth from the same period last year. The company reported Q4 revenue growth of 2.7% QoQ. Net profits were up 26% to $557 miilion, compared to the same quarter in the past year. It's strong performance beats TCS and Infosys, with the company's revenue growth in Q4 almost double the average of the other IT firms. 

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    The Baseline
    04 May 2017
    A new vaccine against bank NPAs

    A new vaccine against bank NPAs

    The cabinet has cleared the nonperforming asset (NPA) resolution package, that includes an ordinance empowering the Reserve Bank of India to effectively deal with bad assets. The ordinance will help start efforts to clean up the balance sheets of banks burdened with bad debt. These changes will be reflected in Section 35A of the Banking Regulation Act, and enables the RBI to direct banks towards specific actions to deal with NPAs.

    Bad loans at Indian banks surged in the past year, revealing previously hidden cracks in the banking system, after an asset quality review ordered by the central bank as part of a clean-up exercise. 

    ICICI Bank, which has the highest amount of bad loans among India's private sector lenders, has said additions to its non-performing assets (NPA) in the fourth quarter were increased primarily by one borrower in the cement sector but expects bad loans overall to be "significantly" lower for the coming financial year. The bank also announced a bonus issue, and said it would issue one free share for every 10 held by investors. 

    Stock in spotlight: Auto components major Motherson Sumi, whose share price has been trending up in markets and hit a new year high yesterday.

    Photo of the day: April with her newborn baby giraffe at the Animal Adventure Park. Reuters

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    The Baseline
    03 May 2017
    Crackdown on errant real estate developers

    Crackdown on errant real estate developers

    The new real estate laws introduced by the government requires real estate developers to use at least 70% of sale proceeds to complete residential projects, rather than funnel money to other jobs. Developers will also not be permitted to start pre-selling apartments before building approvals are obtained. Non-compliance will mean up to three years in jail. 

    To crack down on the use of cheap materials in construction, the law also states that developers will have to fix any defects found within five years of completion, free of charge. Analysts expect this to push smaller developers out of the market, who lack the financial werewithal to comply with the new laws. Overall this is expected to reduce the delays in project completion substantially. Only recently, Unitech owners were arrested on corruption and charges of delaying completion of their projects. 

    State banks, already reeling under losses due to higher bad loan provisions, have started wage negotiations with unions with a hardening stance, and the discussions, insiders say are set to be contentious. The wage unions have submitted their wage demands to the banks, and the Indian Banks Association representing bank managements is likely to make its offer in a weaak to ten days. While public sector banks including SBI have given approval for the talks to go ahead, hikes are not expected to be significant. 

    Stock in spotlight: Natco Pharma, which trendlyne had identified at the beginning of the year as expected to deliver strong results, given that  the company launched the first generic equivalent of Tamiflue capsules in the US on December 12, 2016, and was granted an exclusivity period on drug sales till February. December-March is peak flu season. Natco's share price is currently above all SMAs.

    Photo of the day: The Mount Sinaburg volcano spews thick volcanic ash in Sumatra. Tibta Pangin/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    02 May 2017
    Indian government proposes wide-ranging agri reforms, Infosys to hire American workers

    Indian government proposes wide-ranging agri reforms, Infosys to hire American workers

    The Indian government is proposing wide-ranging reform of agricultural markets, creating a single market for agricultural produce that would give farmers more freedom to sell their crops beyond the closest mandi. This follows up on PM Modi's launch of an electronic National Agriculture Market (eNAM) platform, and model laws on land leasing and better insurance schemes. Agriculture being a state subject, the central government can only propose reforms, although there is pressure on the states to reduce the regulation on the sector to increase farmer incomes. 

    Infosys has responded to proposals for increased H1B visa curbs, by announcing plans to hire 10,000 American workers over two years, across four new technology centres in the United States. The 10,000 new U.S. jobs would be a small part of Infosys' overall workforce of more than 200,000. However, this marks a shift in hiring strategy in the wake of criticism from the US administration that companies like TCS and Infosys were replacing US workers with foreign ones. 

    Stock in spotlight: KSB Pumps, which recently announced the early commissioning of a manufacturing facility in Satara. ICICI Securities issued a buy on the company on April 27. 

    Photo of the day: People snap pictures on their smartphones of a family of ducks in Hyde Park. Toby Melville/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    01 May 2017
    Stock research reports for the week, April 23 - 30

    Stock research reports for the week, April 23 - 30

    Over 50 research reports have landed as company results have come in, and analysts take a look at Q4 growth and projections for FY18. Reports from Axis Direct, HDFC Securities, Motilal Oswal and others have issued new targets and updates for multiple stocks. Stockpick among analysts is Kotak Mahindra Bank, which posted strong quarterly results and improvement in net interest margins, as well as lower NPAs.

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-04-28Lakshmi Vilas Bank Limited 174.00-5.90%NEUT.184.90Chola Wealth Direct
    2017-04-28Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited 955.005.92%Buy901.60Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other2x
    2017-04-28Menon Bearings Limited 91.0015.19%Hold79.00Karvy
    2017-04-28KPIT Technologies Limited 140.009.20%Hold128.20ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2017-04-28KSB Pumps Limited 800.0014.29%Buy700.00ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    1x
    2017-04-28Maruti Suzuki India Limited 7200.0010.34%Buy6525.50ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    1x
    2017-04-28Reliance Capital Limited 740.0011.29%Buy664.95ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-04-28IRB InvIT Fund IPO --%IPO Note-ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-27Tata Sponge Iron Limited --%Results Update825.55HDFC Securities
    2017-04-27Wipro Limited --%Results Update494.10HDFC Securities and 1 other
    1x
    2017-04-27Welspun India Limited --%Results Update95.95HDFC Securities
    2017-04-27Persistent Systems Limited --%Results Update587.50HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2017-04-27LIC Housing Finance Limited --%Results Update668.40HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2x
    2017-04-27IPCA Laboratories Limited --%Results Update595.10HDFC Securities
    1x
    2017-04-27IDFC Bank Limited --%Results Update65.75HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2017-04-27Axis Bank Limited --%Results Update509.60HDFC Securities and 1 other
    1x
    2017-04-27Zensar Technologies Limited 1023.0018.75%Buy861.50HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-04-27Shriram Transport Finance Co.. 1269.0022.60%Buy1035.05Motilal Oswal and 1 other2x
    1x
    2017-04-27TVS Motor Company Limited 581.0017.23%Buy495.60Motilal Oswal 1x
    2017-04-27Oil & Natural Gas Corporatio.. 233.0025.07%Buy186.30Motilal Oswal 1x
    2017-04-27Mold-Tek Packaging Limited 351.0026.92%Buy276.55Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-04-27WIM PLAST LTD. 1628.007.03%Buy1521.00Karvy
    2017-04-27JK Lakshmi Cement Limited 625.0033.83%Buy467.00Prabhudas Lilladhar
    2017-04-27Larsen & Toubro(L&T) Limited --%Sell1748.05Prabhudas Lilladhar
    2017-04-27Fiem Industries Limited 905.00-10.04%Hold1006.05CD Equisearch
    2017-04-27Kewal Kiran Clothing Limited 1844.004.18%Hold1770.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-27Swaraj Engines Limited 1860.002.66%Hold1811.75ICICI Securities Limited
    1x
    2017-04-27Sterlite Technologies Limited 175.0018.64%Buy147.50ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-26Mahindra & Mahindra Financia.. 374.0010.88%Buy337.30HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-04-26Rallis India Limited 280.0016.18%Buy241.00HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-04-26UltraTech Cement Limited 3380.0020.02%Sell4226.30HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2x
    2017-04-26Indiabulls Housing Finance L.. --%Results Update1016.65SMC online and 1 other
    2017-04-26Reliance Industries Limited .. --%Results Update1394.80SMC online and 1 other
    1x
    2017-04-26S Chand and Company Ltd IPO.. --%IPO Subscribe-Way2Wealth and 1 other
    2017-04-26MindTree Limited 468.00-3.73%NEUT.486.15Chola Wealth Direct 2x
    2017-04-26Indian Bank 350.009.91%Buy318.45Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other
    2017-04-26Eros International Media Lim.. 260.0019.60%Buy217.40Dynamic Levels
    2017-04-26Vadilal Industries Limited --%Mgmt Note903.35ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-26Balaji Telefilms Limited --%Mgmt Note100.30ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-26Ashok Leyland Limited 100.0017.03%Buy85.45ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2017-04-25Hexaware Technologies Limited 215.00-6.20%NEUT.229.20HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2017-04-25HDFC Bank Limited --%Results Update1542.15SMC online and 1 other
    1x
    2017-04-25Cyient Limited 606.0010.57%Buy548.05Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other
    2017-04-25Multi Commodity Exchange of .. 1235.001.61%Buy1215.45Axis Direct and 1 other
    2017-04-25Bajaj Corp Limited 426.008.27%Hold393.45Karvy
    1x
    2017-04-25Wheels India Limited --%Mgmt Note1327.05ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-25Astral Poly Technik Limited 565.001.71%Mgmt Note555.50ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-04-24Bank of Baroda 220.0017.33%Buy187.50HDFC Securities
    2017-04-24Gujarat Alkalies and Chemica.. 519.0011.53%Buy465.35HDFC Securities
    2017-04-24ACC Limited 1300.0019.75%Sell1620.00HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2x
    2017-04-24Bharat Forge Limited 1167.002.01%ACC.1144.00Prabhudas Lilladhar 1x
    1x
    2017-04-24IRB Infrastructure Developer.. 305.0016.97%Buy260.75Emkay
    2017-04-24Tata Consultancy Services Li.. 2651.0016.68%Buy2272.10Angel Broking
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    The Baseline
    29 Apr 2017

    Q4 results update: Biocon, Ambuja Cements, IDFC

    Pharma company Biocon has reported a 75% increase in its net profit to Rs 135 crore for the fourth quarter of FY17, citing strong performance in  biologics and small molecules. Revenues for the same period however were flat due to what the management said were "elongated approval timelines in some emerging markets, discontinuance of in-licensed products, and the impact of a fire at the firm’s Syngene facility." For the entire FY17, Biocon's revenues went up to Rs. 4,079 crore or 18%, thanks to growth of biosimilars and entry into new markets. 

    The Biocon board also announced a bonus issue, recommending two bonus shares for every one share and a final dividend of Rs. 3 to shareholders.

    Ambuja Cements, which has a Jan-Dec financial year, reported a 4X increase in its first-quarter net profit compared to the same period last year, thanks to pricing that countered higher operational and material costs, and strong sales volume. Net profit jumped to Rs 247 crore in the quarter ended 31 March, from Rs 53.51 crore for the March quarter last year. 

    The net profit number beat analysts' expectations, of Rs 235 crore. Margins however have shrunk to 15.4%, against 18.6% in the period last year due to higher prices of imported coal and pet coke.

    IDFC’s consolidated net profit has edged up 4% YoY to Rs 135 crore in its Q4, from Rs. 130 crore in the same period last year. The company said that loans and advances increased 11% in Q4 to Rs. 53,578 crore. Investment jumped 66% to Rs. 51,030 crore. The financial business of the company had  been transferred to IDFC Bank last year,  and since then IDFC has continued as an investment company.

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    The Baseline
    28 Apr 2017
    Markets edge lower on protectionist remarks from the US

    Markets edge lower on protectionist remarks from the US

    US President Trump said yesterday that he would like to either terminate or re-negotiate a deal with South Korea, while he refused to rule out a confrontation with North Korea, saying that a "major conflict" was possible but he would prefer a diplomatic solution. His remarks on the two Koreas drove markets down, as investors and traders read these statements as a move towards greater protectionism on the part of the United States. Trump however has had a record of remarks that he later reverses after diplomatic meetings and conferences with advisors. 

    Educational content publisher S Chand and Company's IPO was completely subscribed as of day 2 of the share issue, and as of 5pm, the share sale was subscribed 1.96 times. Institutional and retail investors led the bidding for the IPO. The portion reserved for retail investors was subscribed 2.24 times, while the qualified institutional investors’ category was subscribed 2.68 times.

    Stock in spotlight: Ultratech Cement, which delivered Q4 results above analyst expectations in the post-demonetization Q4. Motilal Oswal issued a buy report on the stock on April 25. 

    Photo of the day: Statues are covered with ear protectors to mark Noise Awareness Day, to encourage reducing noise pollution. Barcroft Images

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    The Baseline
    27 Apr 2017
    S Chand IPO subscribed 52% on day 1, Maruti Suzuki to announce results today

    S Chand IPO subscribed 52% on day 1, Maruti Suzuki to announce results today

    The IPO of education content publisher S Chand and Co. has been 52% subscribed on the first day of the issue.  The offering of 7.68 million shares received bids for 52% of the total, with the qualified institutional investors' share subscribed 61%. The quota for non-institutional investors was subscribed 23%, while retail investors have bid for about 60%. Angel Broking, Emkay and other analysts have given the IPO a 'subscribe' rating, saying that its been priced competitively compared to its listed peer Navneet Education. 

    Maruti Suzuki will announce its results today, and the market is optimistic with the successful take off of models like the Vitara Brezza, Ignis and Baleno. Waiting periods are 24 weeks for Baleno, 18 weeks for Brezza and 8-10 weeks for Ignis.

    20% of Maruti car sales are from government employees, and the upward revision in pay scales is set to boost car demand further. The company has seen 15% volume growth in monthly sales YoY, and analysts are expecting a strong earnings result for Q4. Revenues are expected to cross 20% growth YoY, and net profits to be in double digits. 

    Stock in spotlight:  Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC), which is in talks with online classifieds company Quikr India to sell its brokerage business HDFC Realty and its digital business HDFC Red in an-all stock deal, where HDFC would get 5% of Quikr. Since its last funding round and after acquisitions, Quikr was valued at around $1.5 billion. 

    Photo of the day: A young girl lights a candle marking the anniversary of the 2015 earthquake in Nepal. Navesh Chitrakar/Reuters

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