Trendlyne Blog: The Baseline, Latest on stock market and finance in India and the world.

16 Sep 2019, 03:02PM

What is the real price of the things we buy?

by Parul

How do you feel after you buy an expensive car, or a Snickers chocolate? Shouldn't you include that in the price?

The price of something isn't just the cost of what we pay. The real, hidden price includes everything we feel about what we buy - excitement, enthusiasm, happiness, guilt, regret. And this is very different from person to person.

Let's for example, take a stock or mutual fund investment. One kind of investor, who is very enthusiastic about investing, may snap up a stock - for example, Titan at what he thinks is a bargain price of Rs. 1065.3 on August 21st. He then watches as the price climbs and falls, to Rs. 1,037 before rising to Rs. 1,123.4 on September 13. That's a gain of +5.45% in less than a month, and he is excited and pleased.

Another more aggressive investor may have bought Titan expecting a jump of 10% in share price as markets recovered. He may feel regret at the purchase because he missed out on bigger buys while putting money on Titan.

A third, very nervous investor may have watched the stock initially fall to Rs. 1,037 on September 4, and get extremely upset at the price fluctuations.

The true cost of purchase is thus very different for different people - whether it is purchasing a stock, a box of sweets - where the price you pay is guilt after consumption, or buying a fancy new car - where the price is explaining the purchase to your wife.

It is important for investors to ask themselves: how will I feel about this on purchase? Are you the nervous kind of buyer, who would be happier with fixed deposits and low risk mutual funds, or the moderate investor, who is happy with good gains on blue chips? Or is it only the really risky investments that excite you? Knowing who you are helps you figure out the real cost of your purchase. Because there is definitely is one, and it is not just the price you pay in rupees.

The Baseline

11 Sep 2019

Screener: 100 Nifty500 companies have current PE less than 3 year, 5 year and 10 year PE averages

With market volatility and growth worries driving down share prices, over 100 Nifty 500 companies currently have PE less than their three year, five year, and ten year PE averages. This stock screener (subscription, but snapshot above) tracks stocks that have their PE TTM below these averages, making them potentially more valuable at their current share prices. Among the 103 stocks in the screener are Axis Bank, Biocon and Phoenix Mills.

The Baseline

10 Sep 2019

Indian Markets closed today on account of Moharram

Indian markets are closed today on account of Moharram (September 10). In broader news, markets have been volatile but ended strongly yesterday, driven by rise in FMCG stocks. The auto sector had more bad news, with August sales indicating a deepening slowdown and logging a tenth month of decline

FMCG sectors outside auto are more optimistic, with Titan management indicating that September showed some recovery in jewellery and watch sales. It is too soon however, to suggest a recovery. For that to happen, broader consumer and manufacturing numbers need to show a strong uptick.

Global markets have mixed cues, with the bump in share prices from US and China resuming trade talks, fading. Equity markets were higher in South Korea and Japan, while they fell in China. Hong Kong was flat. The UK Parliament passed a law against no-deal Brexit happening in October, and providing for a three year extension.

The Baseline

21 Aug 2019

Reports Screener: Stocks seeing new target and recommendation upgrades

Despite market volatility and weakening sentiment, some stocks continue to see bullish sentiment from brokerage analysts.

This stock screener identifies companies that have received target price or recommendation upgrades from research analysts. The companies include Kotak Mahindra Bank, which has received 5 target price upgrades from brokerage analysts in the past month, cement company ACC Limited, which both HDFC Securities and Geojit upgraded their recommendations to BUY; Asian Paints which posted strong results and has got target upgrades from ICICI Securities and Axis Direct. See the stock screener for all 130 stocks.

The Baseline

07 Aug 2019

Results Screener: Pidilite Industries, Berger Paints among firms with upbeat results

The live results screener (subscription, but screenshot above) tracks companies that have announced results in the past two days, showing both net profit and revenue growth. This screener only selects companies that have shown both YoY and QoQ growth for both revenue and net profit.

Companies like Berger Paints and Pidilite Industries rose on their strong results performance. In total, 46 companies made the list including Sheela Foam and Torrent Power.

Some of these companies while making this criteria, still disappointed investors due to misses in consensus estimates, like Titan.

The Baseline

05 Aug 2019

Results Analyzer: Venky's India, Dwarikesh Sugar, Globus, Vesuvius

by Rushali Srivastava

19 results have been declared by the companies for the quarter ending June 30, 2019 and 8 companies have reported positive profit results. Some of the companies are as follows:

Venky’s (India) reported a net profit growth of 106.6% on a quarterly basis at Rs 61.8 Cr in June 2019 quarter against Rs 29.9 Cr in the quarter previous to it. Profits declined on a yearly basis by 13% from Rs 71 Cr in the year ago. The stock hit a year low of Rs 1100 today which was the new 52 week low but price quickly increased post results by Rs 170.3 from its opening price today, posting a gain of 14.3%.

Basic EPS growth was the same as that of net profit and stood at Rs 43.9. Total revenue increased by 19.8% YoY at Rs 913.6 Cr compared to Rs 762.5 Cr in the year ago quarter.

Operating expenses increased by 26.2% on a yearly basis at Rs 804 Cr compared to 637.1 Cr in June 2018 quarter.Operating profit decreased by 14.9% YoY at Rs 101.3 Cr in the quarter but on a quarterly basis it increased by 74.9% from Rs 58 Cr in March 2019 quarter.

FII/FPI have decreased their holdings by 1.35% of holdings in Jun 2019 quarter. Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock fell by 14 to 59. Institutional Investors have decreased their holdings by 1.36% in the quarter. It made a new 52 week low today and has fallen 61.2% from 52 week high of 3445. It made its 52 week high on Aug 06, 2018.

Dwarikesh Sugar Industriesreported a net profit decline of 35.2% YoY at Rs 19.9 Cr in June 2019 quarter from Rs 30.7 Cr in the year ago quarter.

Total revenue increased marginally on a yearly basis but increased by 77.7% QoQ at Rs 380.5 Cr compared to Rs 214.1 Cr in March 2019 quarter.

Basic EPS decreased by 35% YoY at Rs 1.1 compared to Rs 1.6 in the year ago. Operating profit also declined by 19.2% at Rs 36.3 Cr against Rs 45 Cr in the year ago. Operating expenses increased by 116.7% in the quarter at Rs 342.6 Cr against Rs 158.1 Cr in March 2019 quarter. EBIDT in the quarter declined by 16.8% YoY at Rs 37.9 Cr against Rs 45.5 Cr in June 2018 quarter.

It made its 52 week high on Oct 15, 2018 and 52 week low on Sept 05, 2018 and has fallen 39.1% from 52 week high of 34.4. After the results were out, the stock price declined steeply by 4.12% to Rs 20.95.

Globus Spiritsreported a net profit growth of 24.9% at Rs 9.4 Cr in June quarter against 7.5 Cr in the year ago. However, profits declined on a quarterly basis by 34.5% from Rs 14.4 Cr in March 2019 quarter.

Basic EPS growth was the same as that of net profit and stood at Rs 3.3 in the quarter.

Total revenue increased by 27.9% at Rs 297 Cr compared to 232.3 Cr in June 2018 quarter.

Operating expenses increased by 30% YoY at Rs 266.7 Cr in June 2019 quarter from 205.1 Cr in the year ago. Operating profit increased by 9.5% on a yearly basis at Rs 28.9 Cr in the quarter.

EBIDT increased by 11.5% YoY at Rs 30.3 Cr in the quarter compared to Rs 27.2 Cr in the year ago quarter. Promoters holding marginally changed to 55.1% from 54.5% as of Jun 2019 quarter. Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock rose by 1 to 8 in the quarter.

It made its 52 week high on Sept 19, 2018 and 52 week low on Aug 01, 2019. It has fallen 49.4% from its 52 week high of 214.95 and is currently near its 52 week low. The stock price decreased by 1.63% today to Rs 108.7 with a decrease of Rs 1.8 from the opening price.

Vesuvius Indiareported a 12% decline in its net profit at Rs 19.6 Cr against Rs 22.2 Cr in the year ago. After the result announcement, the stock price fell from the intraday high of Rs 1028 to Rs 980.1.

Basic EPS also declined by 12% and stood at Rs 9.6 in the quarter compared to Rs 11 in the year ago.

The total revenue declined by 6.9% YoY at Rs 224.8 Cr compared to Rs 241.3 Cr in June 2018 quarter. EBIDT also declined by 9.6% YoY at Rs 37.1 Cr in the quarter.

Operating profit declined by 13.5% YoY at Rs 30.9 Cr in the June quarter compared to Rs 35.8 Cr in June 2018 quarter.

Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock rose by 1 to 52 in Jun 2019 qtr. Number of Mutual Funds holding stock rose by 1 to 29 in Jun 2019 qtr. Institutional Investors have decreased their holdings by 1.15% of holdings in Jun 2019 qtr. It made its 52 week high on Aug 06, 2018 and 52 week low on Aug 02, 2019 and is currently near its 52 week low. It has fallen 26.9% from its 52 week high of 1341.3.

The Baseline

02 Aug 2019

Superstar investments in June: Jhunjhunwala, Ashish Kacholia, Dolly Khanna

by Rushali Srivastava

As June shareholdings were released, superstar portfolios have grown more detailed. Some updates on what large investors bought and sold in the June quarter:

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala publicly holds 32 stocks with a net worth of over Rs. 11,691.2 Cr. He bought shares and increased its holding in:

Agro Tech Foods- increased its holding by 0.51% increasing its total holding to 7.5% in the company with 1,828,259 number of shares amounting to Rs 92.3 Cr.
Spicejet- increased its holding by 0.42% with total holding of 1.67% in the company with 10,000,000 shares amounting to Rs 135 Cr.
Jubilant Life Sciences- increased holding by 0.27% with a total holding of 1.9% with 3,025,000 number of total shares amounting to Rs 132.4 Cr.

He sold shares and decreased its holding in the following companies:

NCC- decreased the holding by 0.91% with the new holding percentage of 9.86%; 59,208,266 number of shares amounting to Rs 434.3 Cr .
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation - decreased holdings by 0.73% to 2.46% total holding with 7,720,000 shares amounting to Rs 36.8 Cr.
Federal Bank- decreased holdings by 0.46% to 2.93% total holding with 57,221,060 shares amounting to Rs 513.6 Cr.
Lupin - decreased holdings by 0.22% to 1.71% total holding with 7,723,605 shares amounting to Rs 596 Cr.
Prakash Industries - decreased holdings by 0.07% to 1.46% total holding with 7,723,605 shares amounting to Rs 12.4 Cr.

Ashish Kacholia who heads Lucky Investments and is an active participant in company earnings calls, publicly holds 21 stocks with a net worth of over Rs. 537.9 Cr. The shares bought by him as per the shareholding data filed with the exchanges are as follows:

KPIT technologies- Bought 4,269,579 shares of the company which is 1.56% of holding in the company amounting to Rs 33.9 Cr.
DFM Foods- increased holding by 0.34% with a total holding of 2.33% with 1,115,053 number of total shares amounting to Rs 27.8 Cr.
Majesco- increased holding by 0.24% with a total holding of 2.59% with 736,123 number of total shares amounting to Rs 33.5 Cr.

He sold shares and decreased its holding in the following company:

CHD Developers- decreased holdings by 0.33% to 5.31% total holding with 6,833,322 shares amounting to Rs 2.1 Cr.

At present, Dolly Khannapublicly holds 6 stocks with a net worth of over Rs. 164.4 Cr. The shares sold by her due to constant decrease in the share price as per the shareholding data filed with the exchanges are as follows:

NOCIL- decreased holdings by 0.14% to 2% total holding with 3,310,025 shares amounting to Rs 28 Cr.
IFB Agro Industries- decreased holdings by 0.19% to 1.11% total holding with 104,240 shares amounting to Rs 2.9 Cr.
Muthoot Capital Services- decreased holdings by 0.25% to 1.28% total holding with 211,092 shares amounting to Rs 11.4 Cr.
Radico Khaitan- decreased holdings by 0.28% to 1.13% total holding with 1,502,904 shares amounting to Rs 44.8 Cr.
Rain Industries- decreased holdings by 0.31% to 1.91% total holding with 6,422,542 shares amounting to Rs 56.4 Cr.
Nilkamal- decreased holdings by 0.34% to 1.49% total holding with 222,804 shares amounting to Rs 21 Cr.

The Baseline

02 Aug 2019

Screener: Stocks seeing positive shifts in upcoming results

The live Upcoming Results Screener identifies stocks that are gaining in share price ahead of results. As results season picks up, some investors are turning bullish on stocks, and this reflects in more bullish technicals.

Stocks seeing such share price gains ahead of results include Relaxo Footwears, Mangalam Seeds and Triveni Turbine. 36 such stocks are currently in this list.

The Baseline

30 Jul 2019

Screener: Results in the past two days with both QoQ and YoY profit growth

The live results screener (subscription, but screenshot above) tracks companies that declared results in the past two days showing both YoY and QoQ net profit growth. 24 companies among the 42 announcing results on Monday and Tuesday made the list, including Piramal Enterprises,Cochin Shipyard and Shriram City Union Finance.

The Baseline

29 Jul 2019

Results Analyzer: Bank of Maharashtra, CPC fall on Q1 results

by Rushali Srivastava

30 results have been declared today for the quarter ending June 30, 2019 out of which 15 companies reported positive profit growth. Some of the companies which declared the results today are as follows:

Bank of Maharashtrareported total revenue growth of 6.9% YoY at Rs 3,191.9 Cr against Rs 2,987.1 Cr in the year ago. The net profit growth was 107.3% YoY at Rs 81.1 Cr against loss of Rs 1,119 in June 2018 quarter. Basic EPS increased by 103.4% YoY at Rs 0.1 against Rs -4.3.

The operating profit in the quarter increased by 93.3% to Rs 239.2 Cr against Rs 123.8 Cr in the year ago.

Promoters have increased their holdings by 4.75% of holdings in Jun 2019 quarter. Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock rose by 1 to 49. Institutional Investors have decreased their holdings by 4.55% of holdings in Jun 2019 qtr.

Bank of Maharashtra’s price crossed below its 200 day SMA today. It made its 52 week low on Oct 11, 2018 and 52 week high on Apr 26, 2019. It has fallen 28.4% from 52 week low of 29.9.

Chennai Petroleum Corporationreported an increase in total revenue by 6.7% on a yearly basis at Rs 10,162.2 Cr against Rs 9,529 Cr in June 2018 quarter. The net profit declined by 250% YoY at a loss of Rs 233.4 Cr against 156 Cr in the year ago. Basic EPS also declined by the same rate at negative of Rs 15.7 in the quarter against Rs 10.5 in the year ago.

The operating loss in the quarter was Rs 120.4 Cr compared to a profit of Rs 447.2 Cr in June 2018 quarter.

Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock fell by 7 to 127 in Jun 2019 quarter. Number of Mutual Funds holding stock fell by 2 to 9 in the quarter.

Chennai Petroleum made 52 week high on Aug 13, 2018 and 52 week low on July 11, 2019. It has fallen 40.2% from 52 week high of 344.95.

EID Parryreported total revenue decline by 6.4% YoY at Rs 3,153.4 Cr against Rs 3370.5 Cr in the year ago. Net loss decreased by 98.5% YoY at Rs 2.5 Cr in the june quarter against Rs 159.1 Cr but the company’s net profit decreased by 101.2% from Rs 201.3 Cr when compared to march 2019 quarter. Basic EPS increased by 85.8% YoY at a negative amount of Rs 2.5.

Operating expenses declined by 9.8% YoY at Rs 2,965.8 Cr against Rs 3,287.6 Cr in the year ago. Operating profit declined significantly by 65.8% on a quarterly basis at Rs 160.7 Cr against Rs 470.3 Cr in March 2019 quarter.

Promoters pledge remained at 0.08% of holdings in Jun 2019 quarter. Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock fell by 1 to 98 in the quarter.

It made its 52 week high on Nov 12, 2018 and a new 52 week low today (July 29, 2019). It has fallen 36.4% from 52 week high of Rs 247.9. It is trading below all available SMAs.

Kansai Nerolac Paintsreported net profit growth of 5.8% YoY at Rs 147.9 Cr. The growth on a quarterly basis was 59.3% against Rs 92.8 Cr in the previous quarter. Basic EPS increased with the rate rate on a yearly basis at Rs 2.7.

Total revenue also increased by 5.8% YoY at Rs 1470 Cr against Rs 1389.5 Cr in the year ago. It increased by 25.9% on a quarterly basis from Rs 1,167.6 Cr in the March 2019 quarter.

Operating profit increased by 13% YoY at Rs 249 Cr against Rs 220.4 Cr in the year ago.

Number of FIIs/FPIs holding stock rose by 2 to 139 in Jun 2019 quarter. Number of Mutual Funds holding stock rose by 1 to 20 in the quarter.

It made its 52 week low on Oct 23, 2018 and 52 week high on Aug 13, 2018. It has gained 25.3% from 52 week low of 343.