Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. share price target

ONGC’s Q3FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.4bn, a 4% beat to our estimate, mainly led by higher-than-expected revenues. RPAT at Rs82.4bn was a 4% miss on higher DD&A; and lower other income.

ONGC’s 3QFY25 EBITDA was in line with our estimate at INR189.7b, as crude oil/gas sales came in line. Both crude oil and natural gas production trends were flat QoQ.

ONGC’s reported EBITDA stood at INR182b (flat YoY) in 2QFY25, in line with our estimate. PAT was 30% above our estimate, mainly aided by higherother income.

ONGC’s Q2FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.3bn, a 9% beat to our estimate, led by lower-than-expected survey-dry wells expense and levies.

ONGC reported adjusted EBITDA/PAT (standalone) of INR 178.6bn (-2/+7% YoY/QoQ)/INR 89.4bn (-11/-9% YoY/QoQ) vs I-Sec’s estimate of INR 174/INR 92.7bn in Q1FY25.

ONGC posted a 10% beat on Q1FY25E SA EBITDA, logging at Rs169.7bn led by lower than expected opex/levies. RPAT at Rs89.4bn saw a similar beat.

ONGC reported adjusted EBITDA/PAT (standalone) for Q4FY24 of INR 166.9bn (-4% YoY)/INR 98.7bn (+12% YoY) vs. I-Sec’s estimate of INR 188.5/INR 98.1bn.

ONGC’s reported EBITDA stood at INR174b (+7% YoY) in 4QFY24, 3% below
our estimate, mainly due to higher-than-expected other expenses. The sharp
rise in other expenses was due to one-off charges of INR9b for tax-related
matters.

ONGC has reported 28% YoY dip in standalone EBITDA and 34% dip in recurring PAT for Q1FY24 (EBITDA / PAT was INR 182.5bn / INR 100.1bn vs I-Sec estimate of INR 154.3bn / INR 66.8bn, respectively), with consolidated recurring EBITDA / PAT up 59% / 12% YoY led by stronger performance from subsidiaries HPCL and MRPL.