Neuland Laboratories Ltd. share price target

Neuland Labs (NEULANDLAB) is a small cap API and CDMO player, since 1984, promoted by Dr. Davuluri Rama Mohan Rao (Executive Chairman), who has a Postgraduate Diploma in Synthetic Drugs and Fine Chemicals Technology from IIT, Kharagpur and a PhD in organic chemistry from the University of Notre Dame, USA. It is being steered by his sons, Mr. Davuluri Sucheth Rao (Vice Chairman and CEO) and Mr. Davuluri Saharsh Rao (Vice Chairman and MD) who have been with the company since 2002 and 2007, respectively.

Neuland lab (NLL) reported revenue of INR 2,365mn (-3.6% YoY, -8.3% QoQ), which was above our estimate of INR 1799mn mainly due to lower than expected decline in the Speciality API and healthy sequential improvement in CMS business. On a segmental side, Prime API business (47% of revenue in FY21) de-grew by 19.3% YoY, mainly impacted by customers' issues on the market-share and inventory front for two of their key products ( Levetiracetam and Mirtazapine). Specialty API business had a decent quarter (+7.1 YoY) with a key contribution from Ezetimibe. Despite the absence of revenue from the Key product, CMS business reported the highest ever quarterly revenues in Q3 with a growth of 4.2% YoY basis. On a sequential basis, CMS revenue improved by 36%, on account of 173% QoQ growth in commercial revenue. Management expects at least two molecules to be...

commercial revenue (-24% YoY). As per our understanding, the company has not made any shipment Stock of its one key product (24% of CMS revenue ) in this calendar year. Reported EBITDA margin contracted by 369bps to 12.8% level (vs our estimate of 15.3%) impacted largely due to Increase in raw material prices and upfront costs for certain projects. However, management is confident of improving margin profile from the current level on the back of a strong order book in CMS business, better traction in GDS business, and cost optimization measures. NLL reported a PAT of INR 87mn...

growth in profitability, healthy balance sheet with improving return ratios, we continue to remain Face Value (INR) optimistic about the mid to long-term growth prospects of the company. The stock has experienced a Average volume significant re-rating in the recent past as the company has been consistently delivering strong growth 3 months along with margin expansion. We foresee a 16.7% revenue CAGR, 277bps margin increase over 6 months FY21-23E. The balance of portfolio among high value and high volume products will help it clock a 1 year faster growth in earnings. Considering better growth visibility, we raised our earnings estimate for...

Neuland lab (NLL) has posted revenue of INR 2,454mn with a 20.4% YoY increase, which was 14% above our estimate of INR 2,150mn. The revenue growth was mainly driven by strong traction in the CMS (78.6% YoY growth) segment, led by 33 molecules (Development + Commercialize) along with the Speciality API segment, which grew by 20.5% in Q3FY21. EBITDA margin expanded by 510bps to 19% level, which was 76bps higher than our estimate driven by improved product mix. Management is confident to improve margin profile from the current level on the back of strong order book in CMS business, better traction in GDS business, and cost optimization measures. NLL reported a PAT of INR 267mn (up 141% YoY) compared to our PAT estimate of INR 202mn led by operationally...

Neuland lab (NLL) has posted revenue of INR2,414mn with a 29.6% YoY increase, which was 12% below our estimate of INR 2,160mn. The revenue growth was mainly driven by strong traction in the CMS (54.6% YoY growth) segment, led by 33 molecules (Development + Commercialize) along with...

low our estimate of INR 2,149mn. The revenue growth was mainly driven by the CMS (25.4% YoY growth) segment, led by 32 molecules (Development + Commercialize) with speciality API segment, which grew by 33.2% in Q1FY21. EBITDA margin expanded by 622bps to 16.5% level, which was 219bps higher than our estimate driven by 580bps improvement in gross margin led by improved product mix. Management is confident to improve margin profile from current level on the back of strong order book in CMS business, better traction in GDS business and cost optimization measures....

below our estimate of INR 2,032mn. The revenue growth was mainly driven by the CMS (62% YoY growth) segment, led by 25 molecules with speciality API segment, which grew by 18.9% in Q4FY20. EBITDA margin expanded by 498bps to 15.6% level, which was 274bps higher than our estimate due...

the business model and growth outlook till FY23E. NLL is in a slow growth phase with CAGR of 10% in revenues, while EBITDA and PAT declined at 9% and 16% over FY16-19. NLL underwent sharp decline of 700bps led by surge in raw material prices in China. Although worst seems over in terms of margins, significant expansion is unlikely to meet management guidance of 200bps/year beyond FY20E. We believe that Salmeterol API scale up for supplying to partners in US remains uncertain as it lacks clarity over the approvals of gAdvair from USFDA. Given the uncertain volatility over the...

We continue to believe NLL is best-placed to benefit from the lack of third-party API suppliers who manufacture low-volume high-quality APIs, with its strength in complex chemical processes. The steady growth in the CMS portfolio (16% CQGR over the last 5 quarters), the launch of gSalmeterol in the US, and stable pricing in the Prime API segment are some of the key reasons for us to build in 13% revenue CAGR over FY19-21E. On the profitability front too, albeit a bit late, we expect to see a steady ramp up over FY20E as the contribution of Niche API and CMS segments is expected to increase, coupled with alleviated raw material prices and backward integration. Model 650bps margin expansion and expect NLL to deliver 101% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E. We maintain BUY on NLL following a mixed quarter. Our TP is revised to Rs 725 (14x FY21E EPS). The scale up in lucrative products like Salmeterol and Austedo remain key triggers for improvement in operational performance.

Easing of raw material price hikes, higher capacity utilization (Unit-3) and scale up in high margin segments (Niche API, CMS) will enable robust revenue growth (~13%) and sharp margin recovery over FY19-21E. The US Salmeterol market is also gaining traction and we believe Neuland is well placed to benefit from this opportunity, which will reflect in improved operating performance over the next two years. Additionally, another potential blockbuster, Austedo, is expected to ramp up by FY21E. We maintain our positive stance on the company owing to a high visibility on growth and attractive valuations of 21/10x FY20/21E P/E at CMP. We maintain BUY on NLL following a beat on our estimates. Our TP is revised to Rs 920/sh (14x FY21E EPS). Hopes are hinged on ramp up in critical products like Austedo and Salmeterol.

Remain bullish on the stock and maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 830 (14x Dec-20E EPS). Neuland Labs (NLL) reported encouraging numbers with 41% YoY revenue growth and a 73% YoY jump in EBITDA in 3QFY19. However, EBITDA margin remained muted at 9% of sales (in line) on account of continued raw material pressure, underutilized facilities and inferior business mix. PAT at Rs 46mn was up 5x YoY.

Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 914 (16x FY20E EPS) Neuland Labs (NLL) delivered poor performance in its 1QFY19 results. Revenue grew 31%YoY to Rs 1.54bn (down 4%QoQ) and EBITDA at Rs 90mn was up 11.3%YoY (sequential drop of 52%) with margin at 5.8% (declining by ~100bpsYoY). PAT reduced by 37%YoY and 95%QoQ, standing at Rs 4.1mn.

Re-iterate BUY with a TP of Rs 1,000 (16x on FY20E EPS). Ahead of expectations, Neuland Labs (NLL) ended the year with improved business performance. Top line grew 13.2% YoY/31.5% QoQ to Rs 1.6bn, with significant jump seen in Ciprofloxacin and Levetiracetam revenues during this quarter. EBITDA declined 34%YoY to Rs 188mn. However, sequential growth of 105% was encouraging. EBITDA margin stood at 11.7% (down 838bps YoY, up 420bps QoQ and 170bps ahead of expectation). Reported PAT after merging with NHSPL and NPRPL, came in at Rs 81mn in 4QFY18.

Initiate coverage with a BUY rating and target price of Rs 1,065 (16x FY20E). Although NCE drug research remains a distant dream for Indian pharma companies, they are making strong inroads into API CRAMS which is at the core of innovation for pharma MNCs. Neuland Labs (NLL) is one among these Indian companies. NLL has made great strides in API CRAMS over the past few years and has managed to win clients from key regulated markets like the US, Europe and Japan.

Amalgamation Scheme: The scheme involves issue of fresh equity shares by NLL to NHSPL and NPRPL which would increase NLL's equity by 25.6%. Promoter holding would change from 51.68% to 41.29 % post-merger. This would likely come into effect from Q2FY18. The amalgamation is aimed at building stronger business and financials, obtain tax benefits by clubbing R&D; services required for CMS business & better operational convenience. Going forward, we expect NLL to enjoy high margins led by strong...

Strengthening High-Margin Product Portfolio: Being a pure generic API Player, NLL is shifting its focus to high margin products like Niche molecules and CMS. Revenue from Niche Molecule/CMS has grown at a CAGR of 28%/28% over FY14-FY16 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17%/38% over FY16-19e. As a result of this strong business mix, the EBITDA has grown at a CAGR of 6.7% over FY14-16 and going ahead the growth expected to be at a CAGR of ~25% over FY16-19e. The EBITDA...

Neuland Laboratories Ltd