NAVA Ltd. share price target

Nava Bharat Ventures (NBVL) reported slightly weaker than expected results for Q1FY19. Sales/EBITDA were slightly lower than our estimates by 6.3%/5.6%, respectively. While Zambian utility company reported satisfactory operational performance, its receivables have been delayed. On a positive note, domestic Ferro Alloy segment EBIT increased 177% YoY to Rs173mn. Also, standalone Power EBIT increased 21% YoY to Rs255 mn. Net profit jumped nearly 4.5x YoY to Rs854 mn....

Although Nava Bharat Ventures (NBVL) Q3FY18 financial performance was below our forecast; nevertheless, a key positive from the results was that its 300 MW Zambian power plant remained fully available by the end of Q3FY18. NBVL's EBITDA stood at Rs1,709 mn (below our forecast) due to slower-thanexpected ramp up from Zambian power plants. Domestic Power business profits remained weak during the quarter with segment EBIT falling to Rs667 mn (-21.4% QoQ), although it was up 92.5% YoY. We have lowered our FY18 sales and profit estimates for Zambian power plants to factor lower-than-expected PLFs in Q3FY18. We slightly raise our FY19 estimates...

Net sales grew 9.7% QoQ Rs3,880 mn (3.5% above our estimate) and EBITDA grew 107.2% QoQ to Rs607 mn (17.4% above our forecast) as Sugar EBIT rose 176.8% QoQ to Rs119 mn. On a positive note, the company has completed the Performance Guarantee tests for both the 150 MW power units at its Zambian power plants. Company expects COD from June 2017 (April earlier)....

Nava Bharat Ventures (NBVL) profitability was marred down by disappointing power segment yet again in Q3FY17. Nevertheless, Ferro Alloys segment surprised us positively with EBIT of Rs74 mn vs EBIT loss of Rs31mn in Q2FY17. NBVL's EBITDA increased 26.7% QoQ to Rs293mn primarily driven by improvement in profitability in both Ferro Alloys and Power segments. Net profit grew 299.1% QoQ to Rs250 mnmainly due to higher other income of Rs358mn (+377.3% QoQ) and exceptional income of Rs64mn. On the positive side, NBVL's Zambian power plants are progressing in line with our...

Nava Bharat Ventures Limited (NBVL) operates in the business of power generation, ferro alloys and agri-business. Sales of power and ferro-alloys (87% of FY16 net revenues) are the main businesses of NBVL and it also operates a sugar plant with a capacity of 4,000 tcd (8% of FY16 net revenues). The company has completed its major capital expenditure cycle and is on the verge of transitioning its cash flow profile by commissioning a 300 MW power plant in Zambia in partnership with government of Zambia. The power plant is backed by a captive coal mine and has an offtake arrangement with Zambian electricity distributor ZESCO. We expect NBVL's EBITDA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 55%/14% during FY16-FY19E. Further, we estimate NBVL to generate strong free cash flows (over Rs10,000 mn...

We expect that the sales to grow at a CAGR of 20% during FY13-FY17E and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 21% during the same period. The top line is expected to revive and stabilise on the back of expansion and implementation of power plants and coal production at Maamba Collieries Limited (MCL), Zambia.