M M Forgings Ltd. share price target

Lower than our Rs 669m estimate, MM Forgings’ Q1 EBITDA slipped 13% y/y to Rs625m due to more-than-expected other expenses. We expect 6% revenue/ EBITDA CAGRs each over FY25-28.

Lower our Rs819m estimate due to less-than-expected revenues, MM Forgings’ Q4 EBITDA slipped 4% y/y to Rs724m. Growth would be supported by the domestic M&H CV volume upswing, which would come at a 5% CAGR over FY25-27 on economic activity and replacement demand.

Broadly in line with our Rs774m estimate, MM Forgings’ Q2 EBITDA grew a healthy 7% y/y to Rs769m. We reckon the domestic M&H CV volume uptrend would hold at a 5% CAGR over FY24-27.

About the stock: MM Forging (MMF) is a prominent forging player serving India, Europe and US markets (FY21 geographical mix domestic 50%, exports 50%). EBITDA margins were flattish at 18.2% amid operating leverage gains; gross...

MM Forgings is a manufacturer of automotive components. It manufactures steel forgings in raw, semi-machined machined and fully machined stages in various...

Standalone revenue decline was limited to 16.2% QoQ at | 239 crore vs. >50% M&HCV; volume decline domestically; largely aided by exports EBITDA margins were down ~170 bps QoQ to 18.1%, tracking negative operating leverage; gross margins rose ~100 bps sequentially Consequent PAT declined ~21% sequentially to | 24 crore...

Prices of key raw materials, steel and aluminium, witnessed a steep increase in the past six months. The company has input cost pass-through arrangements with clients (albeit with a small time lag) and, hence, has been relatively unaffected. Solid offtake prospects domestically and abroad are seen leading to MMF deriving operating leverage benefits as capacity utilisation levels improve. Its focus on increasing machining content and value addition from heavier press lines added in the past are expected to be...

MM Forgings (MMFG) Q4FY21 result was ahead of our estimates on all parameters. EBITDA margin stood at 19.8% vs our estimates of 16.1% due to lower operating expenses. Currently revenue contribution from export market for MMFG is ~52% whereas NA/European contributes ~20%/22% respectively. We believe NA/European market to recover strongly on the back of strong GDP growth forecast. On Domestic front, we expect domestic CV industry to grow in double digit from multiyear low base due to higher push in Infrastructure and construction activity by Govt. We raise our revenue/EBITDA estimates by 7%/5% and 8%/2% for FY22/FY23 factoring the stronger...

actual policy draft is expected to be made public over the next few weeks. The ministry press release states that commercial vehicles beyond 15 years old and that fail to obtain a fitness certificate from automated fitness centres (adhering to global standards), will be de-registered and declared as end of life vehicles. In case of private vehicles, those over 20 years old, and which fail the testing or re-registration will be declared as end of life vehicles. Voluntary scrappage policy or Voluntary Vehicle-Fleet Modernization Programme (VVMP) is aimed at curbing pollution, replacing the existing fleet...

MMF has come out of a heavy capex cycle (~| 480 crore spent in FY18-20), spent on augmenting tonnage and overall capacity. Expected benefits from demand revival in key markets alongside gradual return to erstwhile margin trajectory makes us turn positive on MMF. Accordingly, we value the company at 15x FY23E EPS of | 35.3/share to arrive at a target price of | 530 (revised from | 330 earlier). We upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY. We have not included the financials of MMF subsidiary i.e. DVS Industries (FY20...

On the back of an already difficult last fiscal when CV segment posted negative sales growth of 28.8% in n India, deterred by the pandemic, the demand for automobiles declined sharply in the first six mothns this fiscal across India and globally. The demand for CV's in India and light weight...

MMF has undergone a large capacity expansion and improvement programme in the recent past. With capex spend of ~| 500 crore over the last three years, production capacities have grown ~54% from ~65,000 MT per annum to ~1 lakh MT per annum at present. MMF has added heavier press lines (6,300 tons, 7,000 tons, 8,000 tons) with a view to enhance offerings (acquired capabilities to provide 60-100 kg weight products vs. 2.53 kg weight products earlier). Amid soft demand scenario in key geographies, however, balance capex (of ~| 90-100 crore) would be backended and dependent on market recovery. Focus on increasing machining capabilities and value addition is expected to aid uptick in margins once...

The Company is a manufacturer of automotive components. It manufactures steel forgings in raw, semi-machined machined and fully machined stages in various...

MM Forgings (MMFG) Q2FY20 standalone revenue stood at Rs1.8bn; below our estimates of Rs1.9bn due to slowdown in domestic truck market and European truck market. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 18.2% vs our estimate of 18.8% mainly...

egistered a sales decline of 12.3% (yoy) during first three months of current fiscal (source: SIAM). Slowdown in demand has also led to accumulation of inventory ory at dealers which is likely to continue with advent of new safety and emission norms, prompting leading Indian car makers like Maruti Suzuki to cut production (its sales...