Mastek Ltd. share price target

Evosys is focused on Oracle cloud implementation and consultancy. It provides a gamut of solution offerings like Oracle HCM Cloud, Oracle ERP Cloud, Oracle SCM Cloud, Oracle CX, Oracle EPM Cloud, PaaS solutions (including custom-built solutions), AI, IoT and machine learning. The company generates 60% of revenues from Oracle cloud implementation, 32% from support services and rest from licence revenues. Geography wise, the company generates 44% of revenues from Middle East, 17% from North America, 30% from the US, UK and the rest from APAC region. Further, the...

Mastek has invested in strengthening its executive team both in US and UK geography. UK Govt. growth has slowed down due to Brexit uncertainties and UK elections but is expected to revive post the Brexit outcome and completion of spending review. US revenue is impacted by Retail slowdown but will recover led by ramp-up of new deals. Mastek will benefit from off-shoring opportunity at UK public sector given its long relationship with UK government and limited competition from Indian IT, off-shoring can aid margin expansion. We expect GBP growth for FY20/21/22E at -2.7/8.2/11.6% and 11% EPS CAGR for FY19-22E. The stock trades at 9.0/7.7x FY21/22E and Brexit clarity will result in re-rating. Mastek's stake in Majesco US (Rs 39/sh) and net cash (~Rs 145/sh) protects downside. We maintain BUY on Mastek following a weak 3Q on revenues but stable margin performance. UK elections, Retail slowdown, Brexit uncertainty and furloughs impacted revenue growth but cost management was impressive. Mastek successfully monetised 56% of its Majesco US holding and net cash stands at Rs 3.71bn (35% of Mcap). Our SoTP based TP of Rs 510 is based on 9x (~18% discount to 5Y average) Dec-21E EPS plus Rs 39/sh for 5% stake in Majesco US.

During FY16-19, the company's rupee revenue has grown at a healthy 25.2% CAGR. Acquisition of TaisTech got consolidated in FY18 for full year. However, in the near term (H1FY20), deferral of projects and delay in deal closures due to Brexit in UK had led to weak H1. Owing to major proportion of revenues coming from UK geography and government, we expect FY20E to report a revenue decline. The weakness would flow down to EBIT margin and profitability front. Though improving sentiments in UK government business, rising proportion in US business along with cost optimisation...

Mastek has been strengthening its executive team, three new additions in past eight months. We believe these are strategic initiatives for driving growth. We like Mastek's initial success in recovering US business and managing the Brexit uncertainty. Mastek will benefit (margin lever) from the off-shoring opportunity (~USD 20mn) arising with UK public sector given its long term relationship with UK government and limited competition from Indian IT. Brexit deal is positive but we would wait for further clarity to bake in our estimates. We expect GBP growth for FY20/21/22E at 0.1/9.6/11.0% and 5.4% EPS CAGR for FY19-22E. Mastek's stake in Majesco US (Rs 94/sh) and net cash (~Rs 79/sh) protects downside. We maintain BUY on Mastek despite slight miss on revenue and margins. Brexit deal announcement is positive but we do not build any optimism in our estimates and will wait for clarity. We cut our EPS est. by ~5% for FY21E. SoTP based TP of Rs 505 implies 9x Sep-21E EPS plus Rs 94/sh for 12% stake in Majesco US.

Mastek has successfully ramped up UK Govt. digital business (+6.9% 4-QTR CQGR). Mastek is the only Indian IT company in UK Govt's top-10 vendors list. We also like its initial success in recovering the US business (+8.7% QoQ) led by increased focus and management changes. Mastek is blessed with low exposure to legacy (~16% of rev) and can deliver 11.4/8.6% GBP rev/EPS CAGR over FY19-21E. Its stake in Majesco US (Rs 94/sh) and net cash (~Rs 67/sh) provide additional comfort. Risks to our thesis include prolonged deferment of spend in UK private due to Brexit and GBP depreciation. We maintain BUY on Mastek following a weak 1Q on revenues but stable margin performance. US turnaround is faster than expected and order book growth is encouraging. We cut est. by ~4% factoring soft UK Pvt. Our SoTP of Rs 618 implies 11x FY21E EPS plus Rs 94/sh for 12% stake in Majesco US.

With low exposure to legacy (~16% of rev), Mastek generates low teen margins, given higher on-site revenues and effort mix. We like its success in ramping up UK Govt digital business. Mastek is the only only Indian co in their top-10 vendor list. Co can generate 14.0/13.4% GBP rev/EPS CAGR over FY19-21E (despite US softness and Brexit worries). Its stake in Majesco US (Rs 83/sh) and net cash (Rs 63/sh provide additional comfort. Risks to our thesis include deferment of spend due to Brexit and GBP depreciation. We maintain BUY on Mastek following an inline 4QFY19. Our SoTP is Rs 657 implying 11x FY21E EPS which includes Rs 83/share for 12% stake in Majesco US.

We Initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a TP of Rs 660, based on 11x FY21E EPS. Mastek, founded in 1982, is one of the oldest IT companies in India. Mastek has experience spanning over three decades but in its current version, its just a four-year-old organisation (Demerger with Majesco happened in 4QFY15). Mastek has transformed itself post the demerger, led by (1) Appointment of experienced and capable CEO, John Owen, in Nov-2016 (2) Direct relationship with UK Govt. vs being a sub-contractor earlier and (3) Acquisition of TAIS Tech (SI for Oracle ATG), which marks its entry in the US. Under the new leadership, Mastek has delivered healthy revenue CAGR of 32% (~23% organic) and margin expansion of ~370bps over FY17-19E.