Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. share price target

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM)’s 1QFY26 PAT at INR34.4b was ahead of our estimate of INR30.7b due to higher other income even as EBITDA margin came in line.

In this note, we present the key insights from Mahindra & Mahindra (MM)’s Annual Report. Some of the company’s key achievements from the Auto segment in FY25 include: a 210bp YoY rise in revenue market share to 22.5%, and a segment RoCE of 45.2%.

We are positive regarding Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) due to its domestic market share gains across PVs, CVs and tractors.

M&M's Q4FY25 Standalone revenue grew by 24.5% YoY, coming in 2.3%/4.4% higher than PLe/consensus estimates. The growth in revenue was aided by strong volume growth in in Auto and Farm division as well as better mix in the automotive division led its realizations to increase by 6.2% YoY while Farm realizations remained flat, blended realization up by 4.4% YoY. Gross profit grew by 20.4% YoY while margin contracted by 89bps YoY. EBITDA grew by 42% YoY while margin expanded 184bps YoY, owing to lower staff cost and...

Automotive and tractor segment volume grew in double digits by ~16%/19% YoY; blended realisations gains ~7%/11% YoY/QoQ

MM reported a better-than-expected operating performance in 4QFY25, led by a strong margin beat in the FES segment (at 19.4% vs 17.3% estimated). The QoQ margin improvement was particularly commendable as it came in a seasonally weak quarter.

Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M) EBITDA margin, at 14.9%, was up ~30bps QoQ (I-Sec est.: 14.3%). Beat in margin was led by FES segment with EBIT margin up 130bps QoQ to 19.4% (I-Sec est.: 17.3%). Auto segment’s EBIT margin was down 50bps QoQ at 9.2%, in-line with our estimate.

M&M registered a strong Q3, on expected lines, with ~20%/21% revenue growth in the auto/farm segments, respectively. M&M logged auto volume growth of 16% YoY to 245K units, wherein it saw 20%/7% YoY growth in SUVs/LCVs to 142K/67.5K units, respectively.

MM reported an in-line operating performance in 3QFY25. EBITDA margin expanded 160bp YoY to 14.6% (est. 14.2%) led by improved mix.

Automotive and tractor segment volume grew in double digits by ~16% /20% YoY; reflects strong show in festive/post-festive season

Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M) EBITDA margin at 14.4% was up ~20bps QoQ (vs consensus estimate of 14.7%); auto segment’s EBIT margin was up 20bps QoQ at 9.7%, and FES EBIT margin increased 60bps QoQ to 18.1%.

We maintain a Buy rating on M&M with an SOTP-based revised PT of Rs. 3,600 on healthy traction
in its PV segment, market leadership in tractors space, opportunity to grow in farm machinery
segment, and a strong EV roadmap.

We attended M&M’s unveiling of its first two born EV SUVs—BE 6e and XEV 9e, and are impressed by the strong specifications/features and competitive pricing (introductory prices ~6% and 22%, respectively, below those of current top-selling models in the targeted ICE-SUV segments).

Automotive segment grew by ~9% YoY and tractor volume at 3% YoY in the monsoon quarter; festive season sales were encouraging

M&M reported AEBITDA at Rs. 3,950 crore in Q2FY2025 vs. estimate of Rs. 3,914 crore. This was the consecutive second quarter when it held up blended AEBITDA margin above 14% level.