Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd. share price target

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC’s (ABSLAMC) 1QFY26 operating revenue grew 16% YoY to ~INR4.5b (in line), leading to YoY improvement in yields to 44.4bp from 43.9bp in 1QFY25 (vs. our est. of 44.7bp).

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC’s (ABSLAMC) 4QFY25 operating revenue grew 17% YoY to ~INR4.3b (in line), leading to a ~0.9bp YoY improvement in yield on management fees to 44.9bp (vs. our est. of 45.4bp). For FY25, revenue grew 25% YoY to INR16.8b.

Steady AUM Growth with improving mix and profitability

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC’s (ABSLAMC) 3QFY25 operating revenue grew 30% YoY to ~INR4.5b (5% beat), leading to a ~250bp YoY improvement in yield on management fees to 46.4bp (vs. our est. of 44.3bp). For 9MFY25, revenue grew 27% YoY to INR12.6b.

AXSB: Moderate business growth; PAT supported by other income. IIB: Stable performance. SBICARD: Trend of lower NIM, higher credit cost persists. ABSLAMC: Better quarter

MSIL: Healthy all-round performance raise to BUY. DRRD: Buoyant US sales drive performance. VOLT: UCP improving, Qatar business a dampener. DIXON: Mobile business dials up growth; maintain BUY. KJC: Soft demand, intense competition mar quarter. BLSTR: Purple patch continues; maintain BUY. KECI: Pipeline robust, margin improvement delayed. ABSLAMC: Double-digit growth but market share bleed continues. Metals & Mining: Jindal Stainless: Management meet takeaways

QAAUM grew 11% YoY to Rs 3.1tn in Q3 with equity assets rising even faster at 13%; however, market share inched down

QAAUM grew 10% YoY to Rs 3.1tn in Q2 with equity assets rising 9%; however, market share inched down

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSL) is likely to benefit from prospects of better fund performance/AUM growth, strong retail franchise and benign revision in TER regulation compared to its earlier announcements. Equity and SIP flow market shares are yet to witness meaningful stabilisation.

We upgrade Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSL) on the back of improved earnings growth prospects driven by better fund performance, strong retail franchise and revision in TER regulation, which is now expected to be favourable (Link) vs earlier announcements.

QAAUM grew 5% YoY to Rs 2.9tn in Q1; market share inched up to 6.9% after a prolonged decline

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSL AMC) has reported Rs1.1bn of core PAT in Q4FY23, down 14% QoQ. While yield performance had been stable for the last seven quarters ending Q3FY23 (~44bps at an aggregate level), Q4FY23 witnessed a marginal decline to 43.2bps.

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSL AMC) reported Rs1.3bn of core PAT in Q3FY23, down 2.4% QoQ. While yield performance has been stable for the last seven quarters (~44bps at an aggregate level), declining equity/SIP market share (Q1/Q2/Q3FY23 equity market share was 8.4%/8,2%/7.9%, while SIP market share was 8.3%/8%/7.9%) and flattish quarterly operating EBITDA of Rs1.8bn have led to muted earnings growth expectations.

Market share declines to 7% as Q3 QAAUM falls 6% YoY to Rs 2.8tn vs. 5% growth for the industry

Kotak Mahindra Capital Co Ltd., Bofa Securities (I) Ltd., Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd., Axis Capital Ltd., HDFC Bank Ltd., ICICI Securities Ltd., IIFL Securities Ltd., JM Financial Ltd., Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors...

ABSL AMC is the 4th largest Asset management company in terms of QAAUM and the largest non-bank affiliated AMC as of June 2021 with an AUM of Rs 2.9trn, a market share (based on QAAUM) of 8.5% in the industry and a client base accounts 7mn folio. ABSL AMC PAT has grown at a CAGR of 15% from FY18 to FY21, and RoE has improved by 700bps during the same period to 33.7%. ABSL AMC has the second highest share from B-30 centers, (FY16: 19.3% Q1FY22: 27.4%) At upper price band, IPO is priced at a P/E of 33x discount to peers (Nippon India P/E of 39x and HDFC AMC with P/E of 50x). With focus on growing market share through higher distribution tie-ups, increasing margin...

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited Issue Open: Sep 29 Oct 01 2021 Price Band: Rs. 695 712 Issue Size: 38,880,000 eq sh (Entirely Offer for Sale) Rs.2702.1 -2768.2 cr Reservation for: QIB Upto 18,468,000 eq sh Non Institutional atleast 5,540,400 eq sh Retail atleast 12,927,600 eq sh ABCL Shareholders Upto 1,944,000 eq sh