TOP PICKS: LT, KNR, PNC Infra, Ashoka, NCC, Capacite Infra, ITD and KPTL. HDFC Securities Institutional Equities (HSIE) hosted the 4th Annual Infrastructure Investors Forum on 18/19th Feb 2021, though virtual this time. We had attendees from 12 large listed Industrials/Infrastructure companies represented by Promoters, CEO/CFO/IR teams. After almost a decade, there is strong/consensus optimism building up for the Indian Infrastructure story. Ordering has moved beyond roads with focus now on health, education, portable water, renewable energy, manufacturing expansion, uptick in real estate cycle and all this is coinciding with relatively lower crude prices, lowest interest rate and improving GDP/Tax collection. Companies remain bullish whilst valuation is still at 40-50% discount to cross cycle mean. We maintain constructive as envisaged in our thematic On Road to Rerating and Triggering a New Cycle.

OB at ~Rs119.2bn as on 2QFY21 (~5x TTM revenues); further bagged Rs11.4bn project in Oct'20 and is L-1 in orders worth ~Rs5bn. ITD cementation reported operational losses during the quarter despite healthy execution as the company made provisions of expected losses on...

OB at ~Rs119.2bn as on 2QFY21 (~5x TTM revenues); further bagged Rs11.4bn project in Oct'20 and is L-1 in orders worth ~Rs5bn. ITD cementation reported operational losses during the quarter despite healthy execution as the company made provisions of expected losses on...

We maintain BUY on ITD with an unchanged target price of Rs 68/sh, (1) given large order book (~4.4x FY20 revenue), (2) strong balance sheet and (3) bottom valuation (6.8x 2 yr fwd EPS). ITD Cementation: ITD numbers were better than expectation on account of execution beat and cost controls. Labour availability has improved to 70-80% of pre-COVID level. Order backlog is robust at Rs 126bn (4.4x FY20 revenue) aided by FYTD21 order wins of Rs 13.5bn. Besides, ITD is L1 in orders worth Rs 15bn (total order book at Rs 141bn). Although, NWC days and consolidated net debt (Rs 3bn vs Rs 1.8bn at FY20-end) have increased QoQ, balance sheet remains robust.

Healthy OB of ~Rs113.4bn as at 1QFY21 (4.4x TTM revenues); Additionally, Rs12.6bn projects bagged post Jun'20 and is L-1 in orders worth Rs15.2bn. ITD Cementation (ITCE) posted a decent set of numbers with revenues coming above our and street estimates despite impact of Covid-19 pandemic...

Maintain ADD with an increased TP of Rs 54/sh (8x Mar-22E EPS vs Rs 44/sh earlier). TP increase driven by 22.3% FY22E EPS upgrade. Despite COVID-19 impact, ITDs reported strong 4QFY20 execution leading to Rev/EBIDTA beat of 25/54%. ITD APAT stood at Rs 356mn vs. our estimate of Rs 35mn. With robust FY20 order inflow/backlog of Rs 60/107bn, FY21 should have been a strong year for ITD with Rev of Rs 40bn+. Covid-19 has resulted in migrant workers going home and construction work coming to halt. At best we expect ITD to record 50% Rev in 1QFY21 (Rs 3.5bn) with gradual rampup to Rs 10bn by 4QFY21E. Though ITD has taken cost control measures, negative oplev in 1HFY21 will result in PAT breakeven for FY21E. Weak 1HFY21 will limit further re-rating whilst stable BS with net D/E of 0.2x will limit correction.

ITD 3QFY20 performance was subpar as new projects worth Rs 60bn are in initial stages of mobilization. ITD is likely to deliver strong execution from 2QFY21. Debt is expected to stabilize at current levels of Rs 4.5bn. Bid pipeline is strong and dominated by high margin marine projects. ITD has bid for Rs 35bn JNPT marine project, final outcome expected by Mar-20. Stressed projects like Bengaluru Metro are nearing completion. We believe multiple tailwinds are in place. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in marine segment with competition from L&T, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. ITDs 3Q/9MFY20 order inflows have been robust at Rs 26/56bn ex Rs 3.5bn L1. Kolkata HC has given green signal to stuck Kolkata metro and ITD maintains no write offs in this project. We maintain BUY on ITD with TP of Rs 80/sh (12x Mar-21E EPS).

ITD has sharply de-rated over last 1-yr with Metro projects seeing series of adverse news flows. We believe that Kolkata metro risk is overpriced with project execution expected to resume from mid Dec-19. BS improvements, robust inflows and large unutilized FB/NFB limits augurs well. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in marine segment with competition from L&T, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. ITD delivered 2QFY20 Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 11/7/16%. 1HFY20 order inflows have been robust at Rs 29bn ex Rs 20bn L1. Risk surrounding Kolkata metro seems to be overpriced with work expected to restart mid Dec-19. We maintain BUY on ITD with an increased TP of Rs 83/sh (12x Mar-21E EPS) vs. Rs 78/sh earlier.

ITD fundamental matrix has not seen any change for good in recent quarters. Margins have deteriorated, debt has increased and NWC remains elevated. New wins have largely been non marine. With no near term positive triggers, re-rating will take time. We maintain NEUTRAL. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in marine segment with bigger competition from L&T, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. We maintain NEUTRAL on ITD with a reduced TP of Rs 78/sh (12x Mar-21E EPS) vs. (Rs 95/sh earlier). TP reduction is on account of 17.3/17.2% FY20/21E EPS cut. Lack of large marine orders wins, higher share of NWC intensive infrastructure order book and limited visibility on debt reduction pose significant headwinds.

ITD's surprise Mar-19 quarter loss brought back memories of Delhi Metro. The company has added elevated metro as one more segment (besides roads) to its no bid list now. BS and NWC days deterioration will take time to reverse. ITD strengths in complex jobs execution is not translating into profitable growth. With no near term positive triggers, re-rating will take time. We maintain NEUTRAL. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in urban infra, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. We maintain NEUTRAL on ITD with a TP of Rs 118/sh (15x Mar-21E EPS). We believe ITD has failed to deliver on profitable growth and multiple headwinds like (1) Bengaluru elevated losses; (2) Limited visibility on Marine wins; and (3) High debt, limits further re-rating.

Maintain BUY with a reduced TP of Rs 168/sh. ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in 23% ahead of our estimate at Rs 343mn. Consolidated/Standalone EBIDTA stood at 16.9/13.3% (aided by JNPT provision reversals). Bengaluru metro project contributed Rs 1.9bn revenue and Rs 93mn EBIDTA (4.8% EBIDTA margin). ITD expects lower margins from Bengaluru Metro project (Rs 11bn residual value) owing to a 20% reduction in scope. ITD will file claims for same.

Maintain cautious optimism with BUY and Rs 189/sh TP ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in line with our estimates at Rs 274mn despite EBITDA beat of 33% (aided by Rs 100-150bn of provision reversals) as the Mumbai and Kolkata metro projects are yet to start contributing to profits (loss from associate stood at Rs 4mn vs Rs 40mn QoQ).

Maintain BUY with Rs 211/sh TP. ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in 22.9% ahead of our estimates at Rs 289mn. Consolidated EBITDA margins expanded 204bps YoY to 13.2% (vs. 10.1% est.) led by better profitability in standalone and 100-150bps contribution from residual profits in completed marine projects.

ITD Cementation (ITCE) reported revenue of Rs6.5bn, which was above our as well as street estimates of Rs6bn, mainly due to faster execution in its key projects. Operating margin (OPM) stood higher at 13.2%, as some projects were on the verge of completion. ITCE has a strong order book of Rs90.6bn (ex-L1 of Rs9.4bn), where execution is likely to pick up materially and flow into earnings over FY19-20E. ITCE has already received...

We maintain a BUY stance, with Rs 211/sh TP ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in 15.3% below our estimates at Rs 284mn. Consolidated EBITDA margins cracked to 9.3% (vs. 11.3% est.) led by lower EBIDTA contribution from Bengaluru metro project (23% revenue contribution and 5.6% EBIDTA margin).

ITD Cementation has reported revenue of Rs5.7bn, which is way below our estimate due to slower execution in its key projects. ITCE's Adj. PAT came in at Rs395mn (reported PAT at Rs190.9mn), which is better than our estimate on the back of a strong operating performance and higher other income. ITCE has a strong order book of Rs75bn (excluding L1 of Rs20bn), where execution is...

We maintain a NEUTRAL stance, with Rs 189/sh TP. ITD Cementation (ITD) delivered a strong APAT beat (45.1%), on the back of reversals in provisions in Marine projects nearing completion. Adjusted for same, PAT has come in line. Execution is lacklustre, and order inflows muted (Rs 4.4bn)

ITD Cementation in its Q2CY17 posted revenue of Rs473.cr vs Rs.830 cr in Q2CY16. This was due lower revenue from JNPT project & delay in the execution of metro projects. EBITDA of the company was reported at Rs.56cr in Q2CY17 vs Rs.57cr in Q2CY16.

Wonderla holidays Q1FY18 revenue grew 19% YOY to Rs. 102cr vs Rs.86cr YOY led by 20.1% growth in average revenue per visitor where as footfall declined marginally by 1.3%.

We roll forward our valuation to Jun-19E, and arrive at Rs 180/sh TP (18x Jun-19E EPS). Robust order backlog, 0.29x net D/E and improving WC are key triggers for further re-rating. With recent correction we upgrade ITD to BUY from NEUTRAL. ITD Cementation (ITD) delivered mixed 2QCY17 financial performance with (1) weak execution (Rev 13.4% below est.), (2) positive surprise on EBIDTA margins, (3) no new loss in Delhi Metro JV and (4) robust Rs 27bn order inflow during 2QCY17. Execution miss was on account of back ended execution in new order wins.