Cemindia Projects Ltd. share price target

ITD Cementation Ltd has a diversified portfolio across all verticals with expertise for disciplined project execution. It has established itself as a leading name in the construction of offshore maritime structures, ports, mass rapid transit systems.

We are optimistic about the company's growth story and recommend an ACCUMULATE rating with a revenue CAGR of 17% for FY24-FY26E and a forward P/E multiple of 18X based on FY26E EPS of Rs 28.08 along with target price of Rs 505 per share.

Targeting Larger Overseas Orders for Greater Profitability

To focus on complex projects ahead

Strong order accretion aids growth prospects

primarily driven from Marine and Metro segments. With execution ramp up, labour availability improving and large part of order book under execution management expects strong performance in 2HFY22E. ITD Cementation (ITCE) being a dominant player in urban infra space with MNC parentage, we remain positive on its a) healthy and diversified order book (Rs120.3bn as on 1QFY22) b) strong execution capabilities c) lean balance sheet (Gross D/E of 0.5x) and d) advanced technology and skilled labour. At CMP, the stock trades at a P/E of 14.2x/8.5x on FY22E/23E EPS and...

management guided for 15-20% revenue growth in FY22E. ITD cementation reported strong set of numbers as revenues (up 33% YoY) marginally missed estimates while margins surprised positively. However, it reduced gross debt by ~Rs1.4bn in 4Q taking net D:E to 0.2x. With strong order book position, healthy bid pipeline (Rs880bn) and improved liquidity position on one hand and headwinds due to second wave of Covid on the...

OB at ~Rs119.2bn as on 2QFY21 (~5x TTM revenues); further bagged Rs11.4bn project in Oct'20 and is L-1 in orders worth ~Rs5bn. ITD cementation reported operational losses during the quarter despite healthy execution as the company made provisions of expected losses on...

OB at ~Rs119.2bn as on 2QFY21 (~5x TTM revenues); further bagged Rs11.4bn project in Oct'20 and is L-1 in orders worth ~Rs5bn. ITD cementation reported operational losses during the quarter despite healthy execution as the company made provisions of expected losses on...

Healthy OB of ~Rs113.4bn as at 1QFY21 (4.4x TTM revenues); Additionally, Rs12.6bn projects bagged post Jun'20 and is L-1 in orders worth Rs15.2bn. ITD Cementation (ITCE) posted a decent set of numbers with revenues coming above our and street estimates despite impact of Covid-19 pandemic...

ITD 3QFY20 performance was subpar as new projects worth Rs 60bn are in initial stages of mobilization. ITD is likely to deliver strong execution from 2QFY21. Debt is expected to stabilize at current levels of Rs 4.5bn. Bid pipeline is strong and dominated by high margin marine projects. ITD has bid for Rs 35bn JNPT marine project, final outcome expected by Mar-20. Stressed projects like Bengaluru Metro are nearing completion. We believe multiple tailwinds are in place. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in marine segment with competition from L&T, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. ITDs 3Q/9MFY20 order inflows have been robust at Rs 26/56bn ex Rs 3.5bn L1. Kolkata HC has given green signal to stuck Kolkata metro and ITD maintains no write offs in this project. We maintain BUY on ITD with TP of Rs 80/sh (12x Mar-21E EPS).

ITD has sharply de-rated over last 1-yr with Metro projects seeing series of adverse news flows. We believe that Kolkata metro risk is overpriced with project execution expected to resume from mid Dec-19. BS improvements, robust inflows and large unutilized FB/NFB limits augurs well. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in marine segment with competition from L&T, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. ITD delivered 2QFY20 Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 11/7/16%. 1HFY20 order inflows have been robust at Rs 29bn ex Rs 20bn L1. Risk surrounding Kolkata metro seems to be overpriced with work expected to restart mid Dec-19. We maintain BUY on ITD with an increased TP of Rs 83/sh (12x Mar-21E EPS) vs. Rs 78/sh earlier.

ITD fundamental matrix has not seen any change for good in recent quarters. Margins have deteriorated, debt has increased and NWC remains elevated. New wins have largely been non marine. With no near term positive triggers, re-rating will take time. We maintain NEUTRAL. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in marine segment with bigger competition from L&T, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. We maintain NEUTRAL on ITD with a reduced TP of Rs 78/sh (12x Mar-21E EPS) vs. (Rs 95/sh earlier). TP reduction is on account of 17.3/17.2% FY20/21E EPS cut. Lack of large marine orders wins, higher share of NWC intensive infrastructure order book and limited visibility on debt reduction pose significant headwinds.

ITD's surprise Mar-19 quarter loss brought back memories of Delhi Metro. The company has added elevated metro as one more segment (besides roads) to its no bid list now. BS and NWC days deterioration will take time to reverse. ITD strengths in complex jobs execution is not translating into profitable growth. With no near term positive triggers, re-rating will take time. We maintain NEUTRAL. Key risks (1) High competitive intensity in urban infra, (2) Sustained cost overruns in projects, and (3) BS and NWC deterioration. We maintain NEUTRAL on ITD with a TP of Rs 118/sh (15x Mar-21E EPS). We believe ITD has failed to deliver on profitable growth and multiple headwinds like (1) Bengaluru elevated losses; (2) Limited visibility on Marine wins; and (3) High debt, limits further re-rating.

Maintain BUY with a reduced TP of Rs 168/sh. ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in 23% ahead of our estimate at Rs 343mn. Consolidated/Standalone EBIDTA stood at 16.9/13.3% (aided by JNPT provision reversals). Bengaluru metro project contributed Rs 1.9bn revenue and Rs 93mn EBIDTA (4.8% EBIDTA margin). ITD expects lower margins from Bengaluru Metro project (Rs 11bn residual value) owing to a 20% reduction in scope. ITD will file claims for same.

Maintain cautious optimism with BUY and Rs 189/sh TP ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in line with our estimates at Rs 274mn despite EBITDA beat of 33% (aided by Rs 100-150bn of provision reversals) as the Mumbai and Kolkata metro projects are yet to start contributing to profits (loss from associate stood at Rs 4mn vs Rs 40mn QoQ).

Maintain BUY with Rs 211/sh TP. ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in 22.9% ahead of our estimates at Rs 289mn. Consolidated EBITDA margins expanded 204bps YoY to 13.2% (vs. 10.1% est.) led by better profitability in standalone and 100-150bps contribution from residual profits in completed marine projects.

ITD Cementation (ITCE) reported revenue of Rs6.5bn, which was above our as well as street estimates of Rs6bn, mainly due to faster execution in its key projects. Operating margin (OPM) stood higher at 13.2%, as some projects were on the verge of completion. ITCE has a strong order book of Rs90.6bn (ex-L1 of Rs9.4bn), where execution is likely to pick up materially and flow into earnings over FY19-20E. ITCE has already received...

We maintain a BUY stance, with Rs 211/sh TP ITD Cementations (ITD) APAT came in 15.3% below our estimates at Rs 284mn. Consolidated EBITDA margins cracked to 9.3% (vs. 11.3% est.) led by lower EBIDTA contribution from Bengaluru metro project (23% revenue contribution and 5.6% EBIDTA margin).