Inox Leisure Ltd. share price target

Inox’s Q3FY23 revenue grew 1% beyond its pre-covid levels (Q3FY20) of Rs5.18bn, which is positive in our view and underlines sequential improvement from Q2FY23 lows. However, revenue growth was pricing-mix led. ATP grew 13% from pre-covid levels.

INOX’s Q2FY23 adjusted EBITDA loss stood at Rs32mn, which was largely anticipated
after lacklustre performance by PVR.

Post-merger, board will be reconstituted and will have 10 members. Both promoter families will have equal representation on board with 2 seats each. We believe PVR and Inox merger is a win-win situation as it would lend invincible size advantage to the combined entity (pre-COVID screen/BO market share of ~46%/30% respectively) and result in material revenue & cost synergies by improving bargaining power with film distributors, real estate developers, ad-networks and ticket aggregators. Merger will relegate competition to backyard (Carnival & Cinepolis have ~400 screens each) and...

Reported revenue was | 296.5 crore (up by ~5x QoQ). The box office revenue was | 177 crore while F&B revenue was | 84 crore with ad revenues at | 20 crore. In Q3FY22, ATP was at | 226, up ~27% QoQ, while SPH was...

of Rs1.2bn). Gross debt stands at Rs890mn. INOL's operational performance was ahead of our estimates with Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.8% (PLe of 13.4%) aided by strong content (5 movies crossed Rs1bn mark in 3QFY22). ATP/SPH at Rs226/Rs97 was...

limit of Rs1.2bn). Gross debt stands at Rs930mn. INOL's operational performance was subdued with Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA loss of Rs644mn due to paucity of content and prevailing occupancy caps. However, with Maharashtra, a key market for Hindi movies, having opened cinemas from 22nd Oct, many production houses have announced their release schedules. For instance, potential blockbusters like Sooryavanshi, 83, RRR, Prithviraj, and Laal Singh Chaddha are scheduled to release in 2HFY22 indicating that content pipeline is extremely strong. Further, with pick...

Inox recognised | 22.6 crore as rent concessions. Subsequently, the company reported net loss (without impact of Ind AS116) at | 101 crore. On a reported basis, net loss was at | 122.3 crore...

INOL's operational performance was subdued with Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA loss of Rs1bn due to paucity of content and intermittent closures. However, with declining COVID cases, staggered re-opening is on the cards (31% of the screen portfolio is already operational) and footfalls are likely to stabilize by 2HFY22. Though emergence of 2nd wave has delayed the recovery process warranting a substantial cut in our FY22 EBITDA estimates we remain constructive over the long term as content pipeline is strong (~25 Bollywood & equal number of Hollywood movies are ready for release) which is expected...

Only 108 screens operational out of total 648 screen Q4 started on a promising note with a release like Master in southern market. However, desired flow of releases in Hindi languages was absent. ATP during the quarter was | 172, down 15% YoY while SPH was flat YoY at | 78. Inox opened 17 new screens during the quarter. The management said 19 screens are nearly complete and it expects to add 44 screens, if the situation normalises. We note that the second wave of Covid-19 has dampened recovery prospects in the near term. Currently, only 108 screens...

Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA loss stood at Rs855mn (excluding OI) versus our estimate of Rs737mn as rigorous cost cutting initiatives resulted in fixed opex burn of ~Rs250-300mn per month during the quarter. While 4QFY21 is more or less expected to be a replica of 3QFY21, removal of occupancy caps and expectation of big budget releases towards end of March indicate normalcy is expected to kick-in with the onset of FY22. Further, current trends on ATP (higher/similar to pre-COVID levels for fresh content) and SPH (down only 9.9% YoY from pre-COVID base) indicate no structural change in consumer...

A lack of fresh content weighed on Inox Leisure's (INOL) footfalls in Q3FY21, yielding paltry revenue Rs 149mn.

A tight leash on operating cost and rent waivers helped Inox Leisure (INOL) mitigate its operating/net loss to Rs 318mn/Rs 679mn, in the absence of any revenue in Q2.