Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. share price target

Aditya Birla Capital’s (ABCL) Q4FY23 earnings reflect acceleration in growth momentum and progressive expansion in NIM trajectory. Overall, consolidated PAT stood at Rs6.1bn, up 35% YoY. RoA of 2.5% / 1.9% in the NBFC / HFC subsidiaries improve visibility on achieving the FY24 guidance ahead of the targeted period.

Aditya Birla Capital’s (ABCL) Q3FY23 earnings reflect acceleration in growth momentum and progressive expansion in NIM trajectory. Overall, consolidated PAT (excluding fair value and stake sale gains) of Rs5.3bn (up 27% YoY) was above our estimate of Rs5.1bn. RoA of 2.4%/ 1.9% in the NBFC/ HFC subsidiaries improve visibility on achieving the FY24 guidance ahead of the targeted period.

Aditya Birla Capital’s (ABCL) Q2FY23 earnings reflected accelerated growth momentum, progressive expansion in NIM trajectory and sustained credit cost.

Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) is the holding company for the financial services businesses of the Aditya Birla Group. ABCL's subsidiaries have a strong presence across Protecting, Investing and Financing solutions. It is a universal financial solutions group catering to diverse needs of its customers across their life cycles. Powered by more than 22,000 employees, the subsidiaries of ABCL have a nationwide reach with 850+ branches and more than 200,000 agents/ channel partners and several bank partners. As of December 31st, 2020, ABCL manages aggregate assets under management around Rs.320,000 crores; has a...

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lower yield and the impact of negative carry, (b) the GNPL ratio was stable at 3.6%, with PCR improving 500bp QoQ to 39%, (c) management expects 50% of GNPL to be recovered/resolved in FY21, (d) the share of retail loans has increased to 19% YoY from 15%, (e) the HFC loan book has been largely flat over the past few quarters at ~INR120b, and (f) NBFC disbursements in July 2020 were close to monthly run-rate levels. The past four to six quarters have been challenging for the company, with the run- down of the loan book and emergence of asset quality stress due to certain large- However, the key monitorable is how this portfolio behaves once it is free of moratorium in September. However, the company has responded by running down the wholesale lending book (especially structured finance, which is high-risk However, the key monitorable is how this portfolio behaves once it is free of moratorium in September.

PAT for NBFCs has plummeted 33%/40% QoQ/YoY to INR1.37b due to (a) loans declining 9%/2% YoY/QoQ to INR470b, and (b) higher credit cost (2.7% v/s 0.5% in 4QFY19), led by COVID related provision of INR1.6b and 90bp QoQ rise in GS3 to 3.6% (+30% to HFC loans were flat QoQ and up 6% YoY to INR121b, AMC AAUM grew 1%/2% QoQ/YoY to INR2.67t; 4QFY20 PAT declined 24% QoQ/YoY to INR1b, impacted by mix change and INR200m MTM loss Life Insurance business reported EV of INR51.9b (+6% YoY)and RoEV of 13.2%. Few mid-large corporate NPLs are under resolution, which are delayed due to FY20 has been a challenging year for the company with slowdown in loan Resolution of some corporate NPLs is underway; however, we do not foresee any meaningful resolutions in the near term given the overall We see significant moderation in business growth and earnings pressure in high profit contributing segments like Lending and the Asset Management business.

PBT grew 46% YoY to INR5.2b in 4QFY19, largely driven by strong profit growth across the lending (NBFC +26% YoY and HFC 3.2x YoY) and AMC (+19% YoY) businesses. Even the insurance business witnessed an improvement in profitability during the quarter. it reported a decline in cost of funds to 8.2% from 8.3% a quarter ago. quality was stable QoQ (ex-IL&FS;), with GNPA% at 1.05%. ABCAP has recognized all four exposures of IL&FS; of INR2.2b as GNPA (44bps of loan book) and the coverage ratio on the same stands at 27%. AAUM grew 6% YoY to INR2.65t; however, equity AAUM increased 21% YoY to INR890b. With the rising share of equity AAUM, PBT to AAUM improved to 29bp in 4Q and 26bp in FY19.

Aditya Birla Capital (ABCL), a financial service provider, continued its robust growth in business operation in 4QFY18 as well. The company's consolidated revenue increased by 25%yoy and PAT jumped by 91%yoy to `208cr in said quarter. Consistent growth throughout the year took the company's net profit for the FY18 to `824cr, up by 44%. It..

Loan book grew 9%/25% QoQ/YoY to INR432b. Margins (incl.fees) were under some pressure (-30bp YoY to 4.3%) due to a 70bp YoY decline in yields. Management continues focusing on retail and SME segments, the share of which is currently at 47%. Overall, profitability for the full year was intact, with RoA/RoE at 1.9%/14%. ABCAP recognized 20bp NPLs stemming from the RBI's Feb 12th circular, as a result of which, GNPL ratio stands at 92bp.

Indostar Capital Finance Ltd (Indostar) is a non-deposit taking NBFC having major exposure to i) corporate credit, followed by ii) SME, iii) vehicle finance and iv) housing finance. IndoStar has been sponsored by financial institutions such as Everstone Capital, Goldman Sachs Group, Baer Capital Partners, ACPI Investments, and CDIB Capital International Corporation. Strong promoter provides strong capital sponsorship and professional expertise to Indostar. Over the span of 6 years, IndoStar has built its Corporate lending business (76.8% of total credit as on Q3FY18) and has cemented relationships with large corporates. The company had then forayed into the SME segment in 2015 (22.7% of credit as on Q3FY18) and now it...

Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415 | Piran Engineer (Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393 Nitin Aggarwal (Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540 | Anirvan Sarkar (Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505 Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report....