Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. share price target

The quarter witnessed volume growth of 22% YoY to 24.4 million litres above our estimates of 22 million litres, driven by robust growth across all segments. EBITDA during the quarter increased 48.2% YoY to | 61.5 crore above our estimates of | 57.5 crore. The EBITDA per litre stood at | 25.2 per litre slightly below our estimates of | 26.1 per litre on account of higher other expenses Subsequently, PAT during the quarter increased 53.4% YoY to | 42.4 crore above our estimates of | 36.8 crore. The company also...

Q2FY18 volume grew 13% YoY at ~22.6 mn ltr, as volumes recovered from August/ September after implementation of GST (company has passed on full GST impact).

Gulf Oil Lubricants (GOL) reported its Q2FY18 numbers, which were above our estimates on all fronts driven by higher-than-expected volume growth. Revenues increased 17.8% YoY to | 322.9 crore in Q2FY18 above our estimate of | 300.3 crore The quarter witnessed volume growth of ~13% YoY to 22.5-23 million litre above our estimates of 21.9 million litre, overcoming the GST transition phase. EBITDA during the quarter increased 41.3% YoY to | 61.9 crore, above our estimate of | 49.6 crore. EBITDA per...

Consequently, we upgrade to BUY with a TP of Rs 936 (25x FY19 EPS). Gulf Oil Lubricants reported strong results in 2QFY18, largely driven by 13% volume and 8% realisations growth. The strengthening of the personal mobility segment and OEM tie-ups led to both volume and price growth.

Gulf Oils core volumes grew 7% YoY in Q1FY18 (vs. 10% normal growth) even as GST-led destocking led to 10-15% volume degrowth for peer lubricant players. Volumes are likely to pick up from Aug 17, which will further help Gulfs volume growth and margin (operating leverage). EBITDA margin roseto Rs 23..

Gulf oil reported volumes of 20,800KL which is lower than 23000kl reported by company in Q1FY17, the decline has been majorly on account of large institutional order which was booked last year. Adjusted to this the volumes have grown by 7%. The mix of volumes has improved on yearly basis but has remained constant on quarterly basis at 63:37(B2C:B2B). Segment wise company posted double digit volume growth in MCO (motorcycle oils) segment , DEOs (diesel engine oils) grew by 5% while PCMO posted single digit negative growth on account of GST related price cuts which led to demand postponement. The Segmental mix has remained largely similar at 42% DEO, 20% MCO, 4% PCMO, 18% industrial and 17% by others. We expect the volumes to remain weak in Q2 due to GST concerns but a strong pick-up in volumes is expected in H2 , hence we continue to keep our volume estimates...

Gulf Oil Lubricants (GOL) reported its Q1FY18 numbers, which were above our estimates on the profitability front. Revenues declined 1.2% YoY to | 280 crore in Q1FY18 below our estimates of | 307.8 mainly on account of lower than estimated volumes The quarter witnessed core volumes (ex-one-time institutional order in Q1FY17) growth of 7% YoY to 21 million litre, below our estimate of 21.6 million litre. However, EBITDA per litre was at | 23.5 per litre, above our estimate of | 21.2 per litre mainly on account of lowerthan-expected other expenses...

Best-placed lubricant player:Gulf has progressed from a B2B player to a premium lubes company over past 7-8 years. Balanced approach to B2B and B2C segments has led to strong volume growth at firm margin.

Gulf oil reported 3.5% of volume growth in this quarter which was marginally below our estimated but still better than industry growth, further in Q4 FY16 there was impact of higher volume base on account of large institutional order if we exclude that base volume growth would have been 10%. The volume for entire year have been around 12.4% to 84200KL, this growth is around 3x of what lube industry has posted. The revenues have been higher than our estimates as the company has increased its prices by 2-3% which led to Net sales growing to Rs11,285.5mn from Rs10,113mn, realization's for the company improved on quarterly basis but remained flat on yearly basis to Rs134/ltr. Volume mix remained almost constant with DEO accounting 42%, MCO at 18-19%, PCMO 4-5%, 17-19% for other automotive (transmission oil) and 17-18% for industrial segments. Gulf further enhanced its foot print with 900 car stops, 6000 bike stops and overall distribution network remained around 55-56000. The personal...