Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. share price target

Gulf Oils core volumes grew 7% YoY in Q1FY18 (vs. 10% normal growth) even as GST-led destocking led to 10-15% volume degrowth for peer lubricant players. Volumes are likely to pick up from Aug 17, which will further help Gulfs volume growth and margin (operating leverage). EBITDA margin roseto Rs 23..

Gulf oil reported volumes of 20,800KL which is lower than 23000kl reported by company in Q1FY17, the decline has been majorly on account of large institutional order which was booked last year. Adjusted to this the volumes have grown by 7%. The mix of volumes has improved on yearly basis but has remained constant on quarterly basis at 63:37(B2C:B2B). Segment wise company posted double digit volume growth in MCO (motorcycle oils) segment , DEOs (diesel engine oils) grew by 5% while PCMO posted single digit negative growth on account of GST related price cuts which led to demand postponement. The Segmental mix has remained largely similar at 42% DEO, 20% MCO, 4% PCMO, 18% industrial and 17% by others. We expect the volumes to remain weak in Q2 due to GST concerns but a strong pick-up in volumes is expected in H2 , hence we continue to keep our volume estimates...

Gulf Oil Lubricants (GOL) reported its Q1FY18 numbers, which were above our estimates on the profitability front. Revenues declined 1.2% YoY to | 280 crore in Q1FY18 below our estimates of | 307.8 mainly on account of lower than estimated volumes The quarter witnessed core volumes (ex-one-time institutional order in Q1FY17) growth of 7% YoY to 21 million litre, below our estimate of 21.6 million litre. However, EBITDA per litre was at | 23.5 per litre, above our estimate of | 21.2 per litre mainly on account of lowerthan-expected other expenses...

Best-placed lubricant player:Gulf has progressed from a B2B player to a premium lubes company over past 7-8 years. Balanced approach to B2B and B2C segments has led to strong volume growth at firm margin.

Gulf oil reported 3.5% of volume growth in this quarter which was marginally below our estimated but still better than industry growth, further in Q4 FY16 there was impact of higher volume base on account of large institutional order if we exclude that base volume growth would have been 10%. The volume for entire year have been around 12.4% to 84200KL, this growth is around 3x of what lube industry has posted. The revenues have been higher than our estimates as the company has increased its prices by 2-3% which led to Net sales growing to Rs11,285.5mn from Rs10,113mn, realization's for the company improved on quarterly basis but remained flat on yearly basis to Rs134/ltr. Volume mix remained almost constant with DEO accounting 42%, MCO at 18-19%, PCMO 4-5%, 17-19% for other automotive (transmission oil) and 17-18% for industrial segments. Gulf further enhanced its foot print with 900 car stops, 6000 bike stops and overall distribution network remained around 55-56000. The personal...

Gulf Oil Lubricants Q4 numbers were in line with our expectations. The core business continued to deliver 10% volume growth, driven by distribution expansion and OEM tie-ups. Rev growth was ~10.2% YoY at Rs 2.74bn, supported by vol growth rate of 3.5% (incl. inst order).

GOLIL delivered a strong volume growth of 10% for the quarter and we expect this trend to continue. Gross margin expansion on a sequential basis was as expected and we believe that gross margins should not expand from these levels for FY18. GOLIL is confident of delivering at least 2x 3x volume growth as compared to the industry. This growth would be driven by the new product launches, expansion of distribution channels and focus on gaining more OEM tie-ups. Improvement in the working capital cycle further improves the balance...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gulf Oil Lubricants (GOL) reported its Q4FY17 numbers, which were in line with our estimates on the topline front. Revenues increased...