RBL Bank Ltd. share price target

RBL Bank's (RBK) Q2FY21 operating performance remained weak as NII growth slowed to 7% YoY and provisions stayed high.

The decline in NIM weighed on NII growth (10% qoq and 7% yoy). There was strongrecoveryincorefeeincome(up52%qoqandstoodat93%ofQ2FY20 level)withrevivedtractionincardfeesandprocessingincome.Treasuryincome waselevated,andstoodsimilartoQ1FY21atRs950mn. Notwithstanding higher business activity levels in nonwholesale products on sequentialbasis,theabsoluteopexcameoffinQ2FY21andexhibitednogrowth onyoybasis.Cost/incomeremainedbelow50%. AdvancesstoodatRs562bn(1%qoqand4%yoy);nonwholesalegrew7%qoq...

RBL Bank Ltd. is a fast-growing private sector bank with a network of 386 branches and over 8.5 million customers. It offers various services, including corporate and institutional banking, commercial banking, retail...

RBL Bank's (RBK) Q1FY21 PAT at Rs 1.4bn was below our estimate as non-interest income fell 30% YoY due to lower credit offtake, a conservative approach and reduced credit card income.

RBL Bank Ltd. is a fast-growing private sector bank with a network of 386 branches and over 8.5 million customers. It offers various services, including corporate and institutional banking, commercial banking, retail...

Background: RBL bank (RBL) came into operations in 1943 and was incorporated as a small, regional bank in Maharashtra with two branches in Kohlapur and Sangli. Post the change in the management team in 2010, it has been one among the fastest growing private sector banks and now has 386 interconnected branches and 389 interconnected ATMs spread across 24 Indian states and union territories serving ~8.4mn customers. The bank offers a comprehensive range of banking products and services customized to cater to the needs of large corporations, SMEs, agricultural customers, retail customers and development banking & financial inclusion (low income) customers. Loan book of the bank grew at a CAGR of 46% over FY11 to FY20 and stood at...

RBL Bank's (RBK) Q4FY20 PAT at Rs 1.1bn (54% YoY) was ahead of estimates due to an NII beat.

7 May 2020 RBK reported weak business trends, weighed by decline in wholesale assets and deposit outflows. Higher provisions impacted earnings, but slippages moderated on a sequential basis, enabling improvement in the coverage ratio. Asset quality is expected to remain under watch as 33% of the loan book availed moratorium, with management guiding for elevated credit costs in credit cards/MFI/MSME portfolio. We cut our PAT estimate for FY21/FY22 by 6%/5%, primarily as we factor in moderation in fee income, led by reduced economic activity / lockdown. 4QFY20 PAT stood at ~INR1.1b (54% YoY decline), affected by higher provisions of INR6.1b. NII grew 38% YoY to INR10.2b, led by 36bp QoQ margin expansion to ~4.9%. Other income increased 22% YoY to INR5.0b, with core fee income growth of 21% YoY, impacted by lockdown. Overall, PPoP growth remains strong at 37% YoY to INR7.6b. In FY20, NII/PPOP rose at 43%/42% YoY, while PAT declined 42% YoY, affected by high provisions.

Asset quality deterioration was on expected lines, and from pre-identified stressed pools. However, we remain cautious on RBK's asset quality for the following reasons (1) 3QFY20 saw a sharp ~Rs 7bn rise in BB and below rated corp loans, (2) Recent asset quality trends reflect poorly on underwriting and risk practices , and (3) Broader economic conditions. While the capital raise is a big positive and will support the bank's growth trajectory, it does not entirely mitigate the above risks. We maintain NEUTRAL. Yet again RBKs PPOP was better than expected, due to sharp NIM improvement and one-off staff cost reversals. PAT was above estimates, even as provisions remained elevated. Slippages remained high, and were mostly from anticipated stress. Maintain NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 348 (1.5x Dec-21E ABV of Rs 232).

Background: RBL bank (RBL) came into operations in 1943 and was incorporated as a small, regional bank in Maharashtra with two branches in Kohlapur and Sangli. Post the change in the management team in 2010, it has been one among the fastest growing private sector banks and now has 346 interconnected branches and 383 interconnected ATMs spread across 24 Indian states and union territories serving ~7.8mn customers. The bank offers a comprehensive range of banking products and services customized to cater to the needs of large corporations, SMEs, agricultural customers, retail customers and development banking & financial inclusion (low income) customers. Loan book of the bank grew at a CAGR of 52% over FY11 to FY19 and stood at INR 596bn as of 3QFY20...