GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

29 July 2020 GSK Pharma (GLXO)s performance for the quarter was deeply impacted by the COVID-19-led disruption. As a result, the company posted the lowest revenue recorded in the past 16 quarters. The severity amplified with reduced operating leverage. The outlook is expected to gradually improve with the easing of the lockdown. We reduce our EPS estimate by 26.3%/11.7% for FY21/FY22 to factor COVID- 19-led weakness in the Prescription and Vaccination segments. We continue to value GLXO at 37x 12M forward earnings (25% discount to its three-year average) to arrive at TP of INR1,355. GSK Pharma revenues were down 17.7% to INR6.5b (v/s est. GM expanded 230bp YoY to 60.

GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd: Outlook & Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates for FY21E by 4.3% to Rs 34.5 bn and introduce our revenues for FY22E.

4 February 2020 GSK Pharma (GLXO) was able to improve profitability over FY17-9MFY20, led by product rationalization/enhanced focus on high-margin products. However, its decision to stop selling Zinetac brand (~6% of sales) should have an adverse impact on near-term growth. We expect 8-9% sales CAGR over the next 2 years after adjusting for the loss of Zinetac sales. We reduce our EPS estimates by 12.8%/1.7%/1.3% and reduce P/E multiple to 41x (from 43x earlier) to factor in the (a) voluntary stoppage of Zinetac, and (b) gradual industry-wide slowdown in the anti-infective category with improved hygienic conditions/lower intensity of epidemics. Revenue declined 6% YoY to INR7.8b (v/s est. Adj. for the voluntary recall of ranitidine products and portfolio-optimization initiative, revenue was up 6% YoY. Gross margin (GM) expanded 430bp YoY (+20bp QoQ) to 57.9%, led by the change in product mix.

Revenue growth lower than estimates: Revenues for the quarter at Rs 8821 mn were below our estimates of Rs 9469mn on account of lower traction.

22 October 2019 2QFY20 sales increased 8% YoY to INR8.8b (v/s est. Gross margin (GM) stood at 58.1% and improved 80bp YoY (stable QoQ) due to portfolio rationalization. EBITDA margin improved ~175bp YoY to 22% on account of the superior product mix and lower other expenses as % of sales (-60bp YoY to 18.2%). Employee cost was also down, 40bp YoY, supporting margin expansion. As a result, EBITDA increased ~17.5% YoY to INR1.9b (v/s est. Adj PAT came in at INR1.

steady operating performance with revenue growing by ~8% (driven by 5.4% volume growth). Strong expansion in EBIDTA margins and higher other income led to strong bottom-line growth. Horlicks continued to maintain its leadership in the Health Food Drinks (HFD) category with 44% market share. Premium products gaining good traction coupled with new product launches and improving penetration will be key revenue drivers going ahead. The integration of GSK Consumer and Hindustan Unilever (HUL) will take place by...

Revenues for the quarter at Rs 7880 mn were below our estimates of Rs 8195 mn. The operating margins at 21% in Q1FY20 were below our estimates of 23.2% on account of lower revenue traction and lower gross margin.

Volume growth sustains; Low input cost and efficiencies led to margin expansion: GSK Consumer reported strong results in Q4FY2019, with broad-based growth across products and channels. Revenue grew by 9%, driven by 6.3% volume growth. Business auxiliary income rose by 20% y-o-y, led by double-digit growth across all products. Unlike other FMCG companies, GSK...

GSK has given an optimistic growth outlook on the back of 1) double digit Change in Estimates | Target | Reco HFD volume growth in 9MFY19 2) uptick in rural demand post consumption friendly budget 3) success of Horlicks Protein Plus in fast growth protein...

4 February 2019 Sales grew at robust rate of ~17% YoY to INR8.3b as against our est. of INR7.7b, led by better traction in dermatology and hormones category. Gross margin (GM) declined sharply by ~650bp YoY and ~360bp QoQ to 53.6% due to change in product mix. EBITDA margin contracted by ~350bp YoY to 16.6%, primarily due to decline in GM. This was off-set to some extent by lower employee expense/other expenses, which were down ~240bp/~60bp (as % of sales) YoY. EBITDA declined ~3% YoY to INR1.4b as against our est. Despite margin contraction, PAT increased ~26% YoY to INR1.1b due to better revenue growth, one-time income of INR230m from property sale, and INR50m from non-core brand divestments.