Allcargo Gati Ltd. share price target

Quarterly Update Q3FY25

Initiating Coverage Report

Margin improves on efficiency, overhaul measures on track

Margin improves on efficiency, overhaul measures on track

Realisations continue to hurt, overhaul measures on track

Unlocking synergies and aligning corporate structure

Volumes robust, profit impacted on weak realisation

Turning over a new leaf

Gati Limited’s (GATI) Q4FY23 performance missed our estimates owing to lower yields than expected. Key points: 1) Surface express yield declined owing to adverse client and lane mix; 2) Margins slipped as Jan-23 and Feb-23 were weak, though business picked up in Mar-23.

Gati Limited’s (Gati) Q3FY23 performance missed our estimates owing to lower than expected volumes and higher costs. Key points: 1) surface express volumes grew 6.6% YoY (1.4% QoQ) to 284.8kte, lower than our estimate of 288kte; 2) EBITDA margin declined slightly to 4.4% (Q2FY22: 4.6%) due to higher expenses and slower than expected cost rationalisation.

Gati’s Q2FY23 performance stayed steady and we see in it evidence of the management’s turnaround strategy founded on the twin pillars of sales acceleration and infrastructure, taking shape.

We visited the Farukh Nagar sorting centre of Gati in Haryana. It’s 113,000 sqft facility is located inside Allcargo Logistics Park. Farukh Nagar has helped Gati consolidate three different erstwhile NCR hubs across 84,000 sqft allowing the benefits of consolidation, cross docking (having 89 bays), dock lever, improved planning for IT integration and better connectivity.

Gati's Q1FY20 revenues remained flat YoY, mainly as 2% de-growth in Express distribution and supply chain segment (~78% of the revenues) was negated by 5% and 27% growth in the fuel (16%) and other segment (6%). EBITDA margins declined 17 bps to 4.6% (I-direct estimate: 5.5%). Subsequently, EBITDA de-grew 69% to | 21 crore (I-direct estimate: | 26 crore). PAT de-grew 83% to | 1 crore (I-direct estimate: | 8 crore), mainly due to weak operational performance further compounded by high tax rate (58% vs. 33% in Q1FY19). Other than the weak operational performance an...

FY19 was a year of revival for Gati in terms of revenue and EBITDA growth. Consolidated revenues for FY19 increased by 7% YoY to | 1863 crore, while EBITDA grew by 22% YoY to | 94 crore. However on the quarterly performance front, Gati's Q4FY19 revenues remained flat YoY, mainly as 4% de-growth in express distribution and supply chain segment (~80% of the revenues) was negated by 10% and 58% growth in the fuel (16%) and other segment (14%), respectively. After eight quarters, margins clocked 5.7% (previous high at 6% in Q3FY17) signalling improved asset utilisation, cost...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues for Q3FY19 grew 7% YoY to | 481 crore (I-direct estimate: | 493 crore). Express distribution & supply chain (EDSC) grew 2% to | 378 crore. Growth was supported by 29% and 31% YoY growth in fuel and other sales to | 78 crore and | 27 crore, respectively EBITDA margins fell 39 bps to 5% (I-direct estimate: 5.1%). Higher operating cost to sales ratio (up 165 bps to 76.9%) was negated to an extent by a fall in employee cost (down 101 bps YoY to 10%) & other...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues for Q1FY19 grew 7% YoY to | 456 crore (I-direct estimate: | 440 crore). Express distribution & supply chain (EDSC) grew 5% to | 366 crore. Growth was further accelerated by 17% and 12% YoY growth in fuel and other sales, respectively Lower operating expenses to sales ratio (56.7% in Q1FY19 vs. 58.1% in Q1FY18) improved EBITDA margins by 53 bps to 4.8%....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues for Q4FY18 grew 10% YoY to | 455 crore (I-direct estimate: | 426 crore). Express distribution and supply chain (EDSC) grew 9% to | 370 crore. Growth was further accelerated by growth of 12% and 8% YoY in fuel and other sales, respectively Higher cost of sales continues to dent EBITDA margins that declined 96 bps to 3.4% (I-direct estimate: 5.5%). Subsequently, EBITDA degrew 15% YoY to | 16 crore (I-direct estimate: | 23 crore) PAT was at a loss of | 5 crore (I-direct estimate: profit of | 6 crore)...