eClerx Services Ltd. share price target

eClerx (ECLX) reported an above-expected operating performance in the Mar'19 quarter on the back of in-line revenues and an operating margin beat. A combination of offshore revenue growth and onsite revenue decline aided margins, though this trend is unlikely to continue, in our view. Management was noncommittal on FY20 revenue growth and margins, citing uncertainty led by short-tenured contracts and a changing business mix. We maintain...

In FY19, dollar revenues grew a mere 1% YoY due to client specific issues and lower growth in new projects. Taking into consideration, though moderated but continued impact from concern in certain client buckets, shorter duration projects and pressure in legacy revenues (50% of revenues), it seems an uphill task to reach industry growth rates in FY20E. Considering the above mentioned headwinds, we expect the company to register mere mid-single digit revenue growth in FY20E. The key drivers of FY20E revenue growth are a healthy deal pipeline (higher than FY18 YoY),...

India's US$ 160bn logistics industry is amidst a much-needed transformation led by (1) structural reforms (GST, e-way bill) and the government's infrastructure thrust (DFC, Sagarmala), (2) the emergence of new-age, service-oriented businesses versus asset-heavy models, and (3) growing formalisation of the sector, propelling organised players to the fore. We prefer the emerging 3PL and express segments for long-term value creation. Among...

Announces Rs 2.6bn buyback a transient trigger Event: eClerx (ECLX) has announced a buyback worth Rs 2.6bn through the tender offer route at a maximum price of Rs 1,600/sh (39.6% premium over...

Maintain NEUTRAL with TP of Rs 1,035, 13x Dec-20E EPS. eClerx posted in-line revenue and weak operating performance. Revenue stood at USD 50mn, 0.7/3.3% QoQ/YoY in CC terms. EBIT% contracted sharply by 514bps QoQ to 15.3% impacted by higher employee cost (-260bps impact) and higher SG&A; (-200bps impact). Operating performance impacted by investments in onshore delivery (-250bps impact) and facility expansion (Pune center). APAT was lower at Rs 0.39bn on forex loss impact and higher ETR.

Reported PAT of | 39 crore was below our expectation of | 64.6 crore on account of a sharp margin decline and lower other income Pressure in emerging clients to continue in near term The company posted a marginal increase of 0.4% QoQ led by 4.3% growth in managed services and 5% in onsite revenue. This was offset by 0.9% decline in offshore revenue and 2.6% drop in revenue from emerging clients (non top 10 clients). Decline in emerging clients was mainly on account of two clients in $1-5 million revenue category...

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Challenges to turn into opportunities profitability in FY16-18. The key factors affected the performance were: 1) being on the wrong-side of the actions at the client's end; and 2) a mix change toward onsite, with low gross margins (onsite now accounts for 22% of revenues versus 1% in FY15). Despite the modest performance in the recent past, we are certain about a gradual recovery in growth on account of: 1) stable deal momentum (adding about USD40-50mn in new TCV); 2) no client roll-offs (witnessed no adverse case in the last six quarters); 3)...

eClerx (ECLX), in a recent management meet, reiterated its strategy of onsite presence ramp-up in a bid to move closer to clients. Management indicated possible double-digit growth in FY20 on receding client-specific challenges and healthy deal wins. Operating margin uncertainty persists despite levers such as potential price hikes in top 10 accounts and favourable hedge positions (from H2FY20). Given the clouded margin outlook, we reiterate REDUCE with an unchanged Sep'19 target price of Rs 1,080....

EBITDA margin expanded 110 bps QoQ mainly led by lower selling & distribution expenses (down 5.4% QoQ) and one-time gain of | 3.1 crore in rent cost due to Pune facility consolidation. Adjusting for one time gain, the margin was at 22.5% (below our estimate of 23.8%)...

At a broader level, eClerx continues to face revenue growth headwinds owing to issues such as project roll offs. This is being witnessed in legacy projects (>5 year old projects), where roll offs in the near-term will continue to pressurise offshore revenue, which will be offset by robust onshore revenue growth led by managed services, analytics and RPA. Outlook remains healthy in these areas, with client demand strong and focus on cost cutting. However, from a margin perspective, new business in these areas comes at lower margins initially, and higher share of this business along with higher onshore revenue is likely to pressurise the margin profile in the short-term, till such time as offshore revenue sees a revival. INR depreciation is the biggest...