Dhanuka Agritech Ltd. share price target

Dhanuka Agritech (DAGRI) maintained that the launch of new products will continue to drive growth for the company in FY20. It is also increasing its distribution reach as newer markets have emerged in the deep interiors of the country. Channel inventory for the industry is 20-30% higher than normal, due to tepid demand. Despite tepid performance we remain bullish on the stock led by 1) 15 product introductions in FY17 and FY18 2) renewed focus on efficient marketing and 3) planned launch of ~5-6 new products in FY20. Additionally, its focus on herbicides (32% of sales) and fungicides (15%)...

Gross margins contracted 670bps yoy to 36.6% on inflated RM cost, which the company was unable to pass on due to poor agronomics. This resulted in an EBITDA margin contraction of 603bps yoy to 9.9% (lower than our estimate of 15.1%). (up 30-40% yoy) for the industry. Dhanuka remains at a comfortable position as they have already taken a sales return of Rs490mn in Q3FY19 and Rs1.0bn in 9MFY19. We cut our EPS estimates by 20%/11% for FY19/20E and introduce FY21 estimates while rolling forward our valuations to FY21E. Maintain Buy and reduce our TP to Rs450 (earlier...

We maintain Buy with a TP of Rs 715/sh (22x Sep'20 EPS). Dhanuka Agritech (DAGRI) showed a gradual recovery in 2QFY19 after a weak 1QFY19 performance which was marred by higher input costs and inability to pass on RM inflation. Sales/EBITDA/PAT grew by 10.2/0.9/4.2% to Rs 3.8bn/ Rs 756 mn/Rs 550mn respectively.

We expect PI and Insecticides to post 3-year earnings CAGR of 13.4% and 13.5% over FY18-21E. We like Dhanuka's asset light business model and anticipate a better 2HFY19 performance. We like Dhanuka (TP:-Rs 723/share, upside of 31%) and PI Industries (TP:-Rs 923/share, upside of 19%) in our coverage universe. As Chinese environmental compliances get stricter, low level of RM inventory in the channels and higher RM costs are likely to pose near-term margin challenges for Indian agro-chemical manufacturers. To reduce dependency on China, Indian crop-protection companies are revisiting their sourcing options.

We maintain Buy with a TP of Rs 700/sh (22x Jun'20 EPS). Dhanuka Agritech (DAGRI) reported muted revenue of Rs 2.1bn (up 2.4% YoY) in 1QFY19, owing to lower change in product mix and inability to pass on RM inflation. Higher RM cost resulted in lower gross margins 35.2% (down 993 bps QoQ, and 240 bps YoY). EBITDA (at Rs 159mn) was largely impacted due to higher RM prices.

We maintain NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 730/sh (22x Dec FY19E EPS). Dhanuka Agritech (DAL) reported muted revenue growth of 4.6% YoY at Rs 2.21bn in 3QFY18, this was largely driven by volume growth. Higher RM costs resulted in lower gross margins at 43.3% (-134bps). EBITDA stood at Rs 353mn was impacted owing to higher employee cost (+13.4% YoY), consequently, EBITDAM declined by 237bps YoY to 15.9%. APAT stood at Rs 286mn (+6.4% YoY).

Dhanuka is India's second largest agro-chemical formulations company in domestic branded sales focusing on speciality molecules from global innovators. It has grown at revenue CAGR of around 11% over FY11-17, following an asset light model of producing formulations only and not technicals, which it sources from global partners. It has 11 tie-ups with global MNCs, which ensure new specialty products in Indian markets. Dhanuka has regularly launches new products, mainly in the fast-growing Herbicide/ Fungicide segments and over the years, it has a strong basket...

We maintain NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 712/sh (22x FY19E EPS). Dhanuka Agritech (DAL) reported healthy revenue growth of 11.4% YoY at Rs 3.4bn in 2QFY18, owing to new product launches which boosted volume growth. Higher RM costs resulted in lower gross margins at 41.0% (-139bps). EBITDA at Rs 750mn was impacted owing to higher other expenditure and employee cost (+7.1% and 9.6% YoY). APAT stood at Rs 528mn (+5.3% YoY).

Dhanuka reported 2.2% YoY decline in revenue led by volume de-growth of 1.5% YoY (Bayer's domestic revenue down 5-7%; Rallis down ~5%; UPLs up 6%). Management highlighted that volumes have normalized from mid-July.

Gross sales dropped by 2% yoy to Rs2.1bn on the back of destocking ahead of GST implementation but was above our estimate of Rs2bn. Absence of operating leverage and higher RM cost resulted in 250bps yoy contraction in EBITDA margins to 11.8%. EBITDA fell 14% yoy to Rs245mn and was below our estimate of Rs278mn. PAT dropped by 19% yoy Rs161mn and was below our estimate of Rs197mn due to lower other income. Post GST, re-stocking has progressed at a healthy pace across north, central and west India owing to good monsoon and lower channel inventory. However, sales are yet to pick up in South India which has so far received deficient rainfall....