Container Corporation of India Ltd. share price target

Container Corp (CCRI) posted a well-rounded performance in FY19.

We reiterate BUY as (1) Volume growth is expected in mid-teens with the commissioning of the DFC. We are building in 6%/14%/18% growth in volumes over FY20/21/22E (2) The medium term growth opportunity post DFC will drive up valuations (3) ROEs are expected to improve to 15.9% in FY22E (from 12.6% in FY19) Key risk: Any increase in charges by Indian railways. Despite flat volumes, Container Corporation (CCRI) reported a healthy beat in EBITDA margins at 24.6%. Medium term growth drivers are intact as the co will benefit from phased commissioning of the DFC and from margin efficiencies. Reiterate BUY with a revised TP of Rs 660 (at 24x Sep-21 EPS).

Container Corporation of India (Concor) reported a strong set of Q1FY20 numbers (ex-SEIS income). Topline grew 9% YoY while PBT grew 16%. The company did not record any SEIS incentive (exceptional income) during the quarter vs. | 70 crore in Q1FY19). Therefore, PAT de-grew 10 YoY. The topline growth was devoid of any incremental volume performance (-1% YoY) and was entirely based on realisation growth (~10% YoY). Ex-SIES EBITDA margins grew 324 bps to 24.6% led by adjustments related to the Ind-AS 116 lease accounting. The company has reported accumulated...

Volumes dip; profitability improves led by realization: Revenues grew 9% YoY to INR16.4b (v/s our est. INR17.6b). Volumes dip 1% YoY. Realizations increased 10%YoY. EBITDA margins came in at 24.6%, while EBITDA stood at INR4.03b. Subsequent to the implementation of IND-AS116 during the quarter, operating/other expenses declined, while depreciation/finance cost increased. While depreciation has increased by ~INR150m, the impact on finance cost is almost negligible. Thus, EBIT/TEU for EXIM was at INR3,720 (+32%YoY) while that for domestic stood at INR1,342 (+19%YoY) in 1QFY20....

In-line Q1, balance sheet better; Maintains volume guidance with riders The Q1FY20 was in-line, adjusted for unrecognized SEIS income. Margins improved 300bps YoY, despite a volume decline of 1% YoY, due to the price hikes taken in FY19 and beginning FY20. The company has maintained its 10-12% volume growth guidance, but cautioned that the growth depends on the economy. Balance sheet has improved and company is again net cash. DFC remains the most important long-term trigger that should aid margins. We retain our FY20/21 estimates, given the in-line PAT post...

Container Corp (CCRI) reported a healthy operating performance in Q1FY20.

We set a Sep-20 TP of Rs 670, based on 24x one year forward earnings, at a 10% premium to its 10-year mean multiple. With commissioning of the DFC, the medium term growth opportunity for CONCOR will drive up valuations We initiate on Container Corporation with a BUY. Indias dominant container rail operator (~75% mktshare) is expected to report healthy 16% earnings CAGR over FY19-22E, with the commissioning of the (Western) Dedicated Freight Corridor as well as internal efficiencies.

Revenue target of Rs 250bn: CCRI has set itself an ambitious revenue target of Rs 250bn by FY25/FY26 (Rs 7bn in FY19), factoring in the paradigm shift expected post DFC commissioning and material revenue...

Container Corporation of India (Concor) reported a strong set of Q4FY19 numbers (ex-SEIS income). SEIS incentive during the quarter came in at | 84 crore vs. | 82 crore in Q4FY18. Although overall volumes remain subdued in both segment (Exim & domestic), higher realisation led to 12% YoY growth in revenues. Adjusted EBITDA margins remained largely flat at 21.9%. Subsequently, adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to | 383 crore. PAT grew 20% to | 352 crore, as a strong operational performance and higher other...

In line Q4; Volumes key for FY20; Maintain Buy The Q4 results were in line, despite tepid volume, aided by two price hikes in FY19. The company has guided for a 10-12% volume growth and has taken actions to achieve that target: a 5% price hike in April 2019, followed by a price freeze for FY20, and locking its costs by paying in advance to the railways. The DFC remains the most important long-term trigger, as apart from boosting volumes, it will aid margins. We retain our FY20 volume guidance, despite recent softness, but trim our FY20 earnings by 15% to...