Coal India Ltd. share price target

Coal India’s (CIL) Q3FY22 offtake volumes at 174mnte (up 12.8% YoY) took 9MFY22 volumes to 481.8mnte, up 17.6% YoY (up 15.4% vs 9MFY20), at an all-time high. Key factors behind the surge in offtake volumes were: 1) Higher power demand; 2) low coal stocks at most power plants; 3) unprecedented power prices on exchanges in Oct’21, 4) elevated global coal prices, forcing Indian importers to look for domestic alternatives, 5) RE generation still some way off from becoming a substitute for coal, especially during non-solar hours of the day.

COAL's 2QFY22 e-auction premiums have been disappointing. However, the management highlighted that the current premium is over 50% compared to the 15.3% reported in its 2QFY22 result. It has re-started e-auction to nonregulated sectors, which should result in improved profitability. The management expects the price hike to offset an increase in wages, given the current strong demand environment and high international coal prices. The stock trades at 3.4x/3x FY22E/FY23E EV/EBITDA, with an attractive dividend yield of 11%. We value the stock at 4x FY23E EV/EBITDA with a TP of INR200. We maintain our Buy rating, with a revised TP of INR200/share (from...

During the quarter, FSA realisation, e-auction realisation was lower than our estimate. FSA realisation for Q2FY22 was at | 1382/tonne (down 2% YoY, 1% QoQ), lower than our estimate of | 1425/tonne & e-auction realisations...

On consolidated basis, Quarter ended Sep 2021 compared with Quarter ended Sep 2020. Net sales (including other operating income) of Coal India has increased 10.11% to Rs 23291.08 crore. Operating profit margin has declined from 18.79% to 16.93%, leading to 0.82% decline in operating profit to Rs 3,942.31 crore. Raw material cost as a % of total sales (net of stock adjustments) increased from 8.39% to 8.61%. Employee cost decreased from...

COAL India (COAL) delivered marked improvement on three counts in Change in Estimates | Target | Reco from State power generators and strong E-auction revenues were the...

Demand recovery for coal coupled with rising prices should continue to benefit Coal India in the coming quarters. Though reliance on coal usage is expected to decline to 34% by 2040, company expects demand will continue to grow by 31% in absolute terms. Being the market leader in the domestic market and with well-budgeted capacity in place, Coal India is well positioned to tap into this future opportunity. We retain our BUY with a revised TP of Rs. 176 based on 4.5x FY23E EV/EBITDA....

Purchase of finished goods cost rose from Employee cost decreased from 49.79% to 45.05%. contract fell from 18.29% to 17.43%....

Coal India (COAL) reported Q4FY21 earnings in line with our estimates. Adj. EBITDA fell 16% YoY to Rs81.1bn (PLe:Rs81.4bn) due to 5% fall in realisations well as for us. Increase in linkage prices would get diluted in mitigating the elevated capex and upcoming wage hike effective from 1 st July, 2021. Similarly, E-auction realisations remained subdued despite global prices at multi-year highs. Due to low visibility on earnings and deteriorating quality of...

Coal India Ltd.'s quarterly profit rose, missing estimates, amid cost control measures and an increase in other income. State-owned Coal India on Monday reported a marginal 1.1 per cent decline in its consolidated profit at Rs 4,586.78 crore for the quarter ended March 2021 on the back of lower sales. The...