Coal India Ltd. share price target

Sales at Rs 207bn (+4% yoy) were in line with our estimate led by higher FSA sales volumes.Productionwasup6%yoyto152mntonnesandsalesdespatcheswereup4% yoyto135mntonnes.BlendedrealizationwasflatyoyatRs1,544/tonne....

Coal India (CIL) reported a strong operating performance (EBITDA Rs 69.7bn, 5.4% YoY). This was driven both by off-take volumes (up ~3.7% YoY) and realisations (flattish despite lower e-auctions volumes YoY). On a sequential basis however, e-Auction volumes revived (10.3% vs 4.9% in 3Q) back to normal.

Media reports have highlighted that CIL?s e-auction volumes have been uncapped (vs 7% cap agreed upon earlier) and are likely to revert to old normal (~10%). This reaffirms our long-held view of unsustainability of limits on e-Auction volumes, especially with a view to divert the volumes to FSA consumers (mainly power). The modes of offtake for the two categories make the caps difficult to sustain. Positive comments from the power consumers on improving coal stock would have also helped.

Buy on dips to Rs 346 - Rs 355 for Target of Rs 390 in 1 quarter

Coal India (CIL) results were below estimates (EBITDA Rs 44.9bn vs. est Rs 58.3bn) as e-auction volumes halved (4.5% off-take vs 12.9% YoY and 9.6% QoQ). However, FSA volumes jumped 17.5% YoY (up 8% YTD) even as overall off-take growth remains moderate (3.8% YoY).

Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has reported a good set of consolidated numbers in Q4FY14 inspite of unfavorable economic conditions. Revenue of the company comes in at Rs. 19998 cr...