Biocon Ltd. share price target

Biocon' Q2FY21 revenue grew by 11% vs. our expectation of 15% due to supply chain bottleneck and lower takeoff biosimilars' business in new geographies (covid-19 lockdown). EBITDA margins (22%) decreased by 400 bps on YoY due high R&D; expenses, frorex losses and other expenses.

Q2FY2021 was a soft quarter for Biocon. Revenues from operations grew by 11% y-o-y to Rs 1,745 crore. Adjusted PAT rose by 10.3% y-o-y to Rs. 173.8 crore. Improving traction in existing biosimilars, likely pick up in Semglee, geographical expansion are the key growth drivers for Biologics segment. Biocon has retained its guidance for $1 billion in revenues from the biologics segment...

Biocon Ltd is an integrated biotechnology enterprise with a presence in biopharmaceuticals, enzymes, custom research and clinical research. The Company's pharmaceutical products include statins, immune suppressants and anti-diabetic drugs.

Biocon reported a muted set of numbers for Q1FY21 with revenues growing at 14% on annual comparison but EBIDTA contracted by~6% and PAT by 27% on back of rising costs of Biologics business and higher R&D; spends.

Capital investment and product development are on track for the Generics segment, additional We maintain our EPS estimates for FY21/FY22 and value BIOS at 30x (20% discount to its five-year avg.), arriving at TP of INR450. BIOS is well-placed to deliver a 39% earnings CAGR over FY2022, led by new launches / increased market share for existing products in the Biologics segment and superior performance from the Generics / Research Services segment. New contracts, led by Mylans efforts, would lead to better market share going BIOS is on track with regard to developing Insulin Aspart. Considering new launches and strong traction from existing products, we expect a 43% CAGR in revenue to INR40b over FY2022. An increase in the number of customers and better traction from existing customers are expected to drive a 12 13% CAGR in Research Services revenue over FY2022E. BIOS delivered 16% YoY growth in this segment, led by favorable demand for API.

Q1FY21 revenues grew 14% YoY to | 1671 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1651 crore) mainly due to 18.9% YoY growth in biosimilars to | 692 crore. The Generics segment grew 16.1% YoY to | 599 crore. Research services segment remained flat YoY at | 422 crore. EBITDA margins contracted 512 bps YoY to 24.7% (I-direct estimate: 22.2%) mainly due to lower gross margins and higher R&D; costs. EBITDA declined 5.5% YoY to | 413 crore against I-direct estimate of | 366 crore. Adjusted PAT declined 27.6% YoY to | 149 crore (I-direct estimate: | 127 crore). Delta vis--vis EBITDA was due...

Insulin Glargine (Semglee) is Biocon-Mylans third biosimilar to be approved by the USFDA in a span of 24 months. Considering two competitors (Innovator- Sanofi; Biosimilar by Eli Lilly/Boehringer Ingelheim team; EL/BI) are already in the market and Biocon-Mylan are the third to get USFDA approval with other peers still under clinical phase, we expect Biocon (BIOS) to garner USD130m on an annualized basis from this opportunity, post commercialization in 2HFY21. BIOS recently received the USFDAs approval for its Insulin Glargine (biosimilar version Semglee) for both versions (vial and pen). Further, BIOS-Mylan has recently won a favorable ruling from the US Patent and Trial Board (USPTAB) in the patent litigation against Sanofi for 4 device patents for Lantus SoloSTAR. Moreover, in Mar20, the US district Court of New Jersey ruled that Sanofis 844 patent (product patent) was not infringed by Mylans Insulin Glargine product.

We recommend a BUY on Biocon with a Target Price of Rs 385, an upside of ~10% from CMP of Rs. 350 and Stop Loss Rs 332.