Alkem Laboratories Ltd. share price target

Revenues (Rs 20bn, up 10% YoY) came in line with estimates as exports led the growth (India grew 3% YoY), gross margins at 56.3% (down 540bps QoQ and 180bps YoY) was impacted due to product mix (higher contribution from trade generics and competition in Mycophenolate in the US) coupled with higher API prices from China. Despite poor gross margins, lower fixed costs and employee expenses (15% cost is variable) led to EBITDA margins at 14.8% (up 210bps...

Alkem Labs reported in-line Q4 EBITDA; margins were a tad miss at 14.8% as the negative gross margin was offset by lower staff cost.

INFOE: On a slippery slope initiate with SELL. Monthly Eco Chartbook: RBI's rate cut to support growth. Inflation and IIP: Inflation falls, growth rebounds. Balance of Payments: Favourable outlook on CAD

DRRD, LPC, Sun & Alkem to report strong quarters both for US and India.

Alkem Laboratories, established in 1973, is 5th largest pharma company in India by domestic sales. The company is leader in the acute therapies and has also invested in the chronic therapies. Alkem's US business grew at 24% CAGR over FY16-19 when its large peers struggled for growth. The company faced earning challenges over FY17-19 due to the macro events, weak seasonality, distributor restructuring, API price inflation and FDC ban. FY20E however is proving to be favorable for earnings with strong acute season and continued growth in the US business. With strong domestic business, continued growth in the US business and already completed capex, we believe Alkem has better earnings visibility. The potential...

With a lower than expected impact of gMycophenolate competition in the US, coupled with the highest top-line growth in India business among large-cap peers (1QFY20), we maintain our FY20/21E revenue estimates for Alkem and model a 13% CAGR over FY19-21E. The profitability, too, is likely to expand by 100-120bps YoY with lower raw material prices and improving business mix. With moderated tax expectations, we model 25% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E. Alkem remains among the fastest-growing companies in the Indian market while its performance in the US also stands out. At CMP, Alkem is available at 18x FY21E EPS. Considering its stable branded business, healthy cashflows (~Rs 8bn annual FCFF over FY20/21E), and reasonable return ratios (22% RoIC in FY21E), we believe this is unjustified. We maintain BUY on ALKEM despite a big miss on our 1QFY20 estimates. Our TP is 2,180 (22x FY21E EPS) with estimates largely unchanged owing to a sharp recovery expected in the next two quarters following a shift in the seasonally strong quarters (from 1Q earlier to 2Q now).

Alkem Labs reported a good Q1FY20 with an 11% EBITDA beat owing to gross margin expansion and better cost control.

We remain positive on the medium to long-term growth prospects of Alkem on the back of stable revenue growth from high-margin domestic business (outpace IPM growth). However, EBITDA margin is expected to reel under pressure in FY20E/FY21E owing to robust growth in low-margin US business (last 6 quarters average growth at 36%+ YoY) and large number of field force addition (2,000 added in FY17-19 and 1,000 in 1QFY20). At CMP, the stock trades at a PE of 23.7x and 20.3x of FY20E and FY21E earnings, respectively. As we expect the stock to command premium over its peers owing to healthy return ratios and higher exposure to India business, we maintain...

Alkem Labs is a midsized pharma company (US$ 1bn sales) with India and the US as key markets. It is the market leader in several key acute segments in India. We believe a recovery in Alkem's India business profitability and rising US operating leverage would revive earnings to a 22% CAGR over FY19-FY21 (after a weak FY17-FY19). Post 40% underperformance to the Sensex in the last two years, the stock is trading at 12.3x FY21E EV/EBITDA, implying compelling risk-reward....

Despite reporting subdued performance in FY19, we remain optimistic over Alkem as we believe the impact of raw material price hikes will alleviate in FY20E, and the domestic business is likely to recover on a softer base of FY19. We expect Alkem to return to normal business margins of 16-16.5% in FY20E. Although it is unlikely to repeat its US performance (+39% YoY) next year due to incremental competition, we do believe a 10%+ YoY growth is achievable owing to 8-10 yearly launches. With the expectation of 14/26% revenue/earnings CAGR, Alkem is available at ~17x FY21E EPS. Considering the stable branded business, healthy cashflows and reasonable return ratios, we believe this is unjustified. We maintain BUY on ALKEM following a big beat to our estimates. Our target price is at Rs 2,250 (22x FY21E EPS).