Greenpanel Industries Ltd. share price target

Greenpanel Industries (GREENP) consolidated revenue declined 12.8% YoY in Q2FY24, as MDF revenue fell 10.3% YoY while plywood revenue declined 29.3% YoY. Blended MDF volume declined 2.1% YoY (4-year CAGR of 18.6%), as domestic volumes fell 9.1% YoY (4-year CAGR of 18.4%) impacted by higher imports.

Greenpanel Industries’ (GREENP) consol. revenue declined 16.8% YoY in Q1FY24 as MDF revenue fell 13.2% YoY while plywood revenue was down 36.5% YoY. Blended MDF vol. declined 7.4% YoY (4-year CAGR of 10.8%) with 10.2% YoY decline in domestic volume (4-year CAGR of 17.8%) due to temporary plant shutdown, while export volume grew 3.1% YoY.

Greenpanel Industries (GREENP) has reported Q4FY23 blended MDF volume growth of 10.2% YoY (4-year CAGR of 20.4%) driven by 89.1% YoY growth in export volumes, while domestic volumes declined 7.4% YoY (+1.6% QoQ; 4-year CAGR of 19.5%) on high imports.

In Q3FY23, Greenpanel Industries (GREENP) reported flat consolidated revenue YoY with MDF volumes declining 2.1% YoY (-6.3% QoQ) as domestic volumes fell 7.4% YoY (-6.7% QoQ) due to rise in imports. Consolidated operating margin declined 264bps YoY (-136bps QoQ) on lower margin in MDF/plywood segment resulting in EBITDA/PAT decline of 11.1%/20.9% YoY, respectively.

Increase in MDF imports could pose a threat to domestic price realisation, if not curbed

Q2 revenue increased 8% YoY to Rs 4.6bn led by 14% growth in MDF, though plywood business was down 17%

Greenpanel Industries (GREENP) has reported Q2FY23 consolidated operating margin
decline of 170bps YoY to 24.7% due to margin decline of 100bps/630bps YoY in MDF/plywood segment on account of RM cost pressure.