Greenpanel Industries Ltd. share price target

Greenpanel Industries’ Q3 revenue/gross profit/EBITDA/PAT fell 6.8%/28%/71/69.3% y/y to Rs3.6bn/1.6bn/173m/85m. The poor showing stemmed from export volumes falling (due to unprofitable orders) while domestic volumes were flat.

Sharp contraction in GREENP EBITDA (-71% YoY) for ninth straight quarter on supply overhang in MDF industry and high timber prices

MDF industry margin to remain under pressure in the near future on supply-side pressure and steep rise in timber prices

Sharp contraction in GREENP EBITDA (-57% YoY) for eight straight quarters on supply overhang in MDF industry

Sharp contraction in GREENP EBITDA (-45% YoY) for seventh straight quarter on supply overhang in MDF industry and rising timber prices

Sharp contraction in operating profit (-33% YoY) for sixth consecutive quarter on supply overhang in MDF industry and higher timber prices

Sharp contraction in operating profit (-34% YoY) for fifth consecutive quarter owing to supply-side pressure in MDF industry

Greenpanel Industries (GREENP) consolidated revenue declined 12.8% YoY in Q2FY24, as MDF revenue fell 10.3% YoY while plywood revenue declined 29.3% YoY. Blended MDF volume declined 2.1% YoY (4-year CAGR of 18.6%), as domestic volumes fell 9.1% YoY (4-year CAGR of 18.4%) impacted by higher imports.

Greenpanel Industries’ (GREENP) consol. revenue declined 16.8% YoY in Q1FY24 as MDF revenue fell 13.2% YoY while plywood revenue was down 36.5% YoY. Blended MDF vol. declined 7.4% YoY (4-year CAGR of 10.8%) with 10.2% YoY decline in domestic volume (4-year CAGR of 17.8%) due to temporary plant shutdown, while export volume grew 3.1% YoY.

Greenpanel Industries (GREENP) has reported Q4FY23 blended MDF volume growth of 10.2% YoY (4-year CAGR of 20.4%) driven by 89.1% YoY growth in export volumes, while domestic volumes declined 7.4% YoY (+1.6% QoQ; 4-year CAGR of 19.5%) on high imports.