Greenpanel Industries Ltd. share price target

Greenpanel's Q1FY26 performance was significantly below our expectations, with revenue declining by 10% YoY to Rs3.3bn due to weak performance across segments. A consolidated EBITDA loss of Rs 158mn was reported, impacted by an EUROINR forex loss of Rs 275mn out of which Rs 41mn was classified under finance costs and Rs 234mn under other overheads. Despite the weak performance, management remains ambitious, maintaining MDF volume guidance of 550,000 CBM as they realign their strategy to regain market share through pricing and cost control. We cut our FY27E EPS estimates by 10% and...

Greenpanel Industries’ (GREENP) consol. revenue dipped 10.1% YoY in Q1FY26 as MDF revenue fell 10.8% YoY. Blended MDF volume slumped 14.3% YoY (flat QoQ; 6-year CAGR of 4.9%) with an 8.6% YoY decline in domestic volume (+1.9% QoQ; 6-year CAGR of 11.7%) due to discontinuation of OEM SKUs (on BIS implementation).

navigate margin pressures in a competitive environment. The management also shared insights on domestic demand sustainability, the impact of reduction in MDF imports, and GREENP's roadmap to drive volume growth...

incentives of Rs350mn and expect Rs510mn over FY26/27. The company expects MDF/plywood margin of 12%/7-8% in FY26. We had considered consolidated EBITDA margin of 11.8% with 1) steep increase in timber prices, 2) higher OEM vol in the MDF segment, 3) lower domestic volumes, and 4) lower realization with competition in MDF. Timber prices will continue to impact margins in coming quarters. The management has indicated moderation in...

Greenpanel Industries’ Q3 revenue/gross profit/EBITDA/PAT fell 6.8%/28%/71/69.3% y/y to Rs3.6bn/1.6bn/173m/85m. The poor showing stemmed from export volumes falling (due to unprofitable orders) while domestic volumes were flat.

Sharp contraction in GREENP EBITDA (-71% YoY) for ninth straight quarter on supply overhang in MDF industry and high timber prices

MDF industry margin to remain under pressure in the near future on supply-side pressure and steep rise in timber prices

Sharp contraction in GREENP EBITDA (-57% YoY) for eight straight quarters on supply overhang in MDF industry

Sharp contraction in GREENP EBITDA (-45% YoY) for seventh straight quarter on supply overhang in MDF industry and rising timber prices

Sharp contraction in operating profit (-33% YoY) for sixth consecutive quarter on supply overhang in MDF industry and higher timber prices

Sharp contraction in operating profit (-34% YoY) for fifth consecutive quarter owing to supply-side pressure in MDF industry