Bayer Cropscience Ltd. share price target

We maintain reduce rating (TP- Rs 676) on CRIN due to capacity constraints in NPK and likely headwinds on the raw material side starting 4Q. We are positive on Urea companies given healthy volumes and significantly lower...

We downgrade BYRCS topline/EBITDA/APAT estimates by 1%/9%/9% for FY21, 1%/4%/5% for FY22 and 1%/7%/8% for FY23. We roll over to FY23 estimates and maintain Accumulate rating with revised target price of Rs 6022 (Previous TP 6090) based on 35x FY23 EPS of Rs 172. Bayer reported disappointing results. While topline was in-line with our estimates @ Rs 9.2 bn with 8% growth (PLe Rs 9.3 bn), gross margin contracted by sharp 542 bps due to lower sales of high margin corn seeds and product repositioning...

We lower BYRCS's topline, EBITDA & APAT estimates by 2%/3%/3% for FY21E, 3%/7%/6% for FY22E & 4%/5%/5% for FY23E to factor in lower topline growth and reduced gross margin expansion than earlier anticipated. We downgrade the stock to ACCUMULATE (from BUY) with revised TP of Rs 6090 (Previous 6421) based on 35x Sept'22 EPS of Rs 167. We continue to like the stock due to its lean business model, robust cash flow generation and superior return ratios of ~20-25%. BYRCS's 3% topline growth was largely...

Bayer reported better than expected results with robust growth in both crop protection and seeds segment. Topline/EBITDA/APAT grew by 29%/61%/57% YoY. Gross margin contraction of 240 bps would have been largely due to higher sales growth of Roundup (Glyphosate) which is a low margin product for the company. Liquidation growth continues to be better than placement growth implying limited build-up of stocks at the dealer level. With robust paddy plantings and decent growth in Corn acreages, seeds segment is...

Domestic agrochemical industry is expected to grow +20% YoY in Q1 driven by massive surge in herbicide sales, pre-buying led by robust demand expectation and ~5% price increase in generic molecules. Geographically, North India followed by South is expected to drive growth. Also, crop wise Rice will be the single largest growth driver for the industry driven by acreage expansion and shift from transplanting rice to Direct Seeded Rice (DSR). Molecules like Bispyribac Sodium (Key player PI Ind- Nominee Gold), Pyrazosulfuron (UPL- Saathi, Dhanuka- Cempa) Pendimethalin (UPL- Dost...

BYRCS reported solid results, topline grew by 82% YoY driven by high corn portfolio sales and sharp growth in CP segment. Massive sales return in 4QFY19 (57% revenue decline in 4QFY19 for core-BYRCS) led to favourable base but even excluding that growth is expected to be ~15-20% in CP. EBITDA (Rs582mn) and APAT (Rs601mn) reversed into profits from losses last year....

insecticides, fungicides and herbicides. The Company operates through Agri Care segment. It offers crop solutions for various crops, such as cotton, fruits, millet, mustard, pulses, rice, soybeans, sugar cane,...

Total Industry volume is up 11% to 4.4 mn tons. Urea/NPK/DAP sales are @ 2.5 mn tons/0.8 mn tons/0.5 mn tons, up 3%/28%/26% resp. SSP volumes grew 10% to 0.3 mn tons. Domestic phosphatic fertiliser sales...

BYRCS reported disappointing 4Q results with high costs and decline in Change in Estimates | Target | Reco revenue of ~57% YoY (due high sales return) leading to EBITDA and PAT loss. Subdued market conditions led to sales return of placed stocks (even though...

Bayer CropScience reported 29% yoy revenue growth to Rs6.2bn in Q3FY19, which was above our and consensus estimates. Despite overall domestic remaining under stress the performance was driven by rice, fruits and vegetable segments. Gross margins improved by 130bps yoy to 42% owing to better product mix and inventory gains. EBITDA margin expanded 280bps yoy to 7.5% vs. our estimates of 5.7%....

Bayer reported a revenue decline of 10% yoy to Rs11.0bn, which was well below our and consensus estimates, primarily due to adverse weather conditions in India (uneven rainfall and hailstorms) which affected standing crops, leading to down-trading by farmers. Despite this, gross margins improved by 170bps yoy to 39.9% on better product mix and inventory gains. However, EBITDA margins contracted by 350bps yoy due to a lower...

Bayer CropScience Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue grew by 76.5% to Rs. 1232.0 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it increased by 11.61% when compared with Q2FY17.

Weak Q1 with revenue down by 15% (flat expected) and PAT at Rs 1.1 bn (Rs 1.4 bn expected). EBITDA margin plummeted to 16.6% (~23% in Q1FY17). The domestic business (~85% of revenue) was impacted by GST-led destocking, while international business was affected by weak global agrichem market.

Past buy-back: In the past, Bayer has done two buybacks of Rs 5 bn each (~46% of prevailing cash)at 7%-18%/4%-11% premium to 3M/2WVWAP.

Revenue fell by 67.5% to Rs. 215.3 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.