Vinati Organics Ltd. share price target

The de-growth in sales YoY is largely attributed to de-growth in ATBS and IBB volumes. Gross margins improved by 442bps YoY and 509bps QoQ on account of benign RM costs. EBITDA/PAT degrew by 15.1/9.6% YoY to Rs 1.0bn/Rs 746mn respectively. Employee costs were up 21.9% YoY to Rs159 mn, a higher other income up by 57.8% YoY to Rs 162mn and a lower tax rate of 31% against 33% in 4 shielded PAT to Rs 746mn. Vinati Organics has commissioned Butyl Phenols plant and is expected to...

VOL posted a substantial fall in revenues measuring to 21.3% y-o-y in Q3FY20 (Rs. 238.47 cr vs Rs. 303.05 cr) on the back of lower realizations and stumbling revenues from its marquee product ATBS due to stunted oil prices. VOL's clients' desire to keep truncated inventory levels in December also contributed to plummeting top line.. IBB volumes remained low; given our understanding, BASF - a major customer is facing challenges with Ibuprofen manufacturing. With just a handful of customers in the global...

Vinati Organics Ltd (VOL) enjoys global leadership in two specialty chemicals, with market share of 70% in IBB (isobutyl benzene) and 80% in ATBS (2-Acrylamindo 2-Methylpropane Sulfonic Acid). We upgrade VOL to Hold as a we have a positive outlook on the VOL in the longer term given capacity expansion in ATBS, launch of new products and superior margin profile. Further, it is trading at 1 Year FWD P/E of 19x which is 35% discount to last 5 year average, which seems to be attractive. 9MFY20 Revenue de-grew by 5% YoY, on account of lower off-take...

We like VO for its (1) Impeccable product selection (2) High market share globally (3) Best in class return ratios and earnings trajectory. However, in the absence of new product pipeline, we believe current valuations are contextually high at 31.1/26.1x FY21/22E PER. Our TP of Rs 2,040/share is based on a 25x Dec-21E EPS. We downgrade VO to NEUTRAL post an underwhelming performance in 3QFY20. Given a demand slowdown for the high margin ATBS and resultantly lower realizations, we cut our EPS estimates for FY21/22E by 13.5/12.6%.

Background: Vinati Organics Limited (VOL) was established in 1989 to manufacture specialty organic chemicals. It has since grown to becom e the world's largest manufacturer of IBB & ATBS and India's largest manufacturer of IB & HP MTBE. The company's products are exported to customers in countries across Europe, America and Asia. Competitive edge in niche specialty chemicals Cost leadership & scale economies in IBB and technological entry barrier in ATBS. The company started with a small capacity of 1,000 TPA and gradually expanded to 26,000 TPA today for its ATBS production, capturing 60% of the market share. The company also commands more than 65% market share in the world for IBB. With consistent investments in technology and capacities, the company is the largest producer of IBB in the world with a capacity of 16,000 TPA....

VO has corrected 17% from its peak (Sep-19) and is trading at 22.8/19.4x FY21/22E PER. We believe it should command premium valuations owing to (1) Its impeccable product selection (2) High market share globally (3) Best in class return ratios and earnings trajectory. We upgrade VO to BUY despite muted performance in 2QFY20. VO will generate RoE of 30.5/27.1/24.8% and RoIC of 29.6/30.7/33.1% in FY20/21/22E. Valuations are contextually low at 22.8/19.4x FY21/22E PER. Our TP of Rs 2,331/share is based on a 25x Sep-21E EPS.

Vinati Organics Ltd (VOL) enjoys global leadership in two specialty chemicals, with market share of 70% in IBB (isobutyl benzene) and 80% in ATBS (2-Acrylamindo 2-Methylpropane Sulfonic Acid). Q2FY20 Revenue de-grew by 3% YoY, but PAT grew by 69% YoY led by higher operating profit and corporate tax cut. EBITDA margins improved by 310bps YoY to 40.7% due to softer RM price and higher contribution from ATBS. We continue to maintain our positive outlook on the VOL given capacity expansion in ATBS and launch of Butyl phenols, which is expected to drive growth for 2-3 years....

000 TPA. In anticipation of the accelerating demand for ATBS, VOL decided to increase its existing ATBS TBS capacity to 40000 TPA by September 2019, however, due to delays it is expected to be completed by November. The rising demand for ATBS and withdrawal of Lubrizol from the ATBS...

VO has been commanding a premium in valuations due to an impeccable history of product selection and best in class return ratios (ROE and RoIC for FY20/21E will be 27.6/25.1 and 26.3/27.2%). However, we expect ATBS volume growth to taper and blended margins to correct with increase in the share of low-margin Butyl phenols. With the PAP project back to laboratory testing and no other products in the pipeline, we maintain NEU on VO. Post an underwhelming performance in 1QFY20, we cut our EPS estimates for FY20/21E and arrive at a TP of Rs 1,986/share based on a 25x Jun-21E EPS. We maintain NEUTRAL.