UPL Ltd. share price target

UPL reported a mixed Q3 with in-line EBITDA and a 9% sales miss.

We recommend a BUY on UPL Ltd with a Target Price of Rs 490 an upside of 8% from CMP of Rs. 452 and Stop Loss Rs 410

UPL's stock corrected over 15% today after a report by ET Prime cited a whistleblower complaint alleging that promoter Jaidev Shroff along with family members has siphoned off money.

UPL Q2 PAT soars 166% to Rs 537 cr, above estimates Consolidated revenue from operations came at Rs 8,939 crore in Q2 September 2020, 14.35% higher than Rs 7,817 crore in the same quarter last year. Profit before tax (PBT) stood at Rs 655 crore in Q2 September 2020, rising 112% from Rs 309 crore in the corresponding period last year. Current tax fell 25% year on year to Rs 201 crore in Q2 September 2020. EBITDA grew 17% to Rs 1,808 crore in Q2 September 2020 from Rs 1,541 crore in Q2 September 2019....

UPL Ltd's 2QFY21 earnings were ahead of our estimates, Sales/EBITDA grew by 14.4/15.2% YoY to Rs 89.3/16.6bn (D.est: Rs 83.8/15.7bn). APAT grew by 55% YoY to Rs 6.47bn. Sales growth was driven by a 19% volume growth across geographies....

UPLL's 14% topline growth (PLe 13%) & 15% EBITDA growth (PLe 15%) was in line with our estimates. APAT @ Rs6.7bn (PLe @ Rs 4.7 bn) up 43% came in better due to lower than expected depreciation (due to restatement) & tax rate and higher than expected other income. Q2 saw broad-based growth in all geographies driven by market share gains, improved supply chain and robust agronomic conditions. UPLL's strong business momentum indicates its solid competitive positioning and successful integration of Arysta. Its rich...

In 2QFY21, UPLL's revenue growth was driven by Latin America (LatAm)/ India/ RoW markets while Europe/North America (NA) markets grew in single digit. Gross margin contracted due to change in the product/ geography mix, price decline and exchange impact. Operating leverage and synergy benefits led to EBITDA growth of 17%. Lower tax rate, lower interest cost and higher other income led to adj. PAT growth of 64% during 2QFY21. Factoring in the beat to our PAT estimates (mainly due to lower than estimated tax rate), we increase PAT estimates by 9% for FY21 while...

UPL reported better-than-expected revenue growth of 14.4% to Rs. 8,939 crore (5.4% ahead of our estimate) driven by growth across regions. EBITDA margin of 20.2% (up 54bps y-o-y) lagged our estimates, given pricing pressures and unfavorable forex movement in Latin America. H2FY2021 to be strong for the US, Europe and Latin America, led by good agronomics; margins to expand led by price hikes in Latin America and growth in high-margin regions of US and Europe. Company aims to reduce debt by $700-750 million and targets a net debt-equity ratio of 2x by...

UPL reported better-than-expected revenue growth of 14.4% to Rs. 8,939 crore (5.4% ahead of our estimate) driven by growth across regions. EBITDA margin of 20.2% (up 54bps y-o-y) lagged our estimates, given pricing pressures and unfavorable forex movement in Latin America. H2FY2021 to be strong for the US, Europe and Latin America, led by good agronomics; margins to expand led by price hikes in Latin America and growth in high-margin regions of US and Europe. Company aims to reduce debt by $700-750 million and targets a net debt-equity ratio of 2x by...