Timken India Ltd. share price target

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Timken India reported strong operational numbers in Q4FY18. Revenues came in strong at | 345.4 crore, up 32.6% YoY. We had estimated 15% topline growth at | 300 crore Absolute EBITDA increased 22.4% YoY to | 46 crore. EBITDA margins came in at 13.3% vs. 14.4% YoY. Lower EBITDA margins were primarily due to a decline in gross margins (dropped 210 bps YoY). We expected EBITDA margins of 15.4% for the quarter...

Top line to grow owing to improved volumes: Despite a YoY revenue growth of 13.9%, EPS de-grew by 31.9% along with an EBITDA contraction of 229 bps due to higher material expenses and employee expenses. We see the margin contraction phenomenon as temporary. In view of the synergies from ABC Bearings Ltd's acquisition coupled with growing railways business, we expect the revenueto grow at ~ 12% CAGR during FY17- FY20E with an improved EBITDA margin of 16.3% by FY20E.

Revenues came in at | 278.6 crore, up 20.6% YoY. We estimated revenues of | 263.8 crore for the quarter EBITDA declined 12.9% YoY to | 20.7 crore as the company reported weak EBITDA margins of 7.4% in Q3FY18. Lower EBITDA margins were on account of a sharp spike of 37.6% and 34.1% in employee and other expenses, respectively. Gross margins remained stable for the quarter. We estimated margins of 13.5% for the quarter PAT operating performance coupled with higher non-operating...

Revenues came in at | 310.2 crore, up 9.8% YoY. We estimated revenues of | 308.2 crore for the quarter EBITDA increased 13.1% YoY to | 53.8 crore as the company reported steady EBITDA margins of 17.3% in Q2FY18. We expected margins of 16.9% for the quarter PAT increased 24.7% YoY to | 37.3 crore as the company reported higher other income of | 14.8 crore vs. | 1.7 crore in Q2FY17 Exports, mobile segment strong, new opportunity to open up in railways...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Timken India (TIL) reported weak Q1FY18 numbers. The company reported topline, EBITDA and PAT, which were below our estimates Revenues came in at | 300 crore, up 6.3% YoY and below our...

Timken India (TIL), a leader in the niche segments of engineered bearings and mechanical power transmission products, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ABC Bearings Ltd through a court-approved amalgamation process ABC Bearings (ABC) is a manufacturer of tapered, cylindrical and spherical roller bearings and slewing rings. ABC operates primarily...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Timken India (TIL) reported dismal Q4FY17 numbers. The company reported a significant decline in topline, EBITDA and PAT numbers. This was mostly due to a continued miss in exports (6% decline YoY) Revenues came in at | 260.5 crore, down 4.2% YoY and below our...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Timken India (TIL) reported dismal Q3FY17 numbers. The company reported a significant decline in topline, EBITDA and PAT numbers. This was mostly due to a miss in exports to the tune of | 50 crore Revenues came in at | 231 crore, down 10% YoY and below our...

Mixed results for Q2FY17, growth story intact: Timken has registered slightly lower sales by -1.1% sequentially & 7.3% YoY growth for Q2FY17 owing to hard market dynamics. EBITDA & EBIT margins have contracted by 30 bps each QoQ mainly on account of rise in other expenses. However, Net profit margin has expanded by 70 bps sequentially to 10.1% on account of lower tax expenses in Q2FY17. H1FY17 performance has been impressive till now with 7.9%, 19.6% & 14.6% growth in revenue, EBITDA & PAT respectively YoY, along with an EBITDA margin expansion of 160 bps & 170 bps expansion in PAT margin.

valuations of over ~25x forward earnings due its niche expertise and sagar.gandhi@icicisecurities.com strong parentage. With moderate capex and strong balance sheet, we believe TIL is well placed to capture the upcoming opportunity in the railways, DFC, renewable and auto segment in addition to export led growth. Thus, we value the company at 29x FY19E EPS of | 21.2 and...