Thermax Ltd. share price target

Thermax’s performance has been under pressure over the last few quarters, mainly due to a drag from one of its two key segments – industrial infra.

Thermax’s (TMX) 2QFY26 results came in sharply below our expectations on lowerthan-expected order inflows, execution and margins.

It operates in four key segments Industrial Infra (~%48 of revenue), Industrial Products (~38%), Green Solutions (~7%) and Chemicals segment (~7%) Q2FY26 performance: Thermax reported a muted set on impact from legacy orders in Industrial Infra. Revenue EBITDA and PBT declined 3%, 19% and 13% YoY to 2473 crore, 172 crore and 174 crore respectively. EBITDA and PBT Margins at 7% and 4.7% down of 137 bps and 293 bps YoY. The company received 66 crore as Package incentive scheme in Industrial Infra business last year. Thus, Revenue, EBITDA and PBT have been adjusted for the same. Segmentally, Industrial Products (48% of revenue mix), green...

We downgrade our rating from Accumulate' to HOLD' given the persistent execution challenges, valuing the core business (excl. Green Solutions) at PE of 40x Mar'27E (same as earlier) with SoTP-derived TP of Rs3,633 (Rs3,629...

We revise our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by -2.2%/-3.0% factoring in probable execution delays in Industrial Infra. Thermax (TMX) delivered a decent performance in Q4, reporting 11.6% YoY revenue growth, while EBITDA margin saw a marginal decline of 17 bps YoY to 9.7%. Management remains optimistic about FY26 revenue growth with better margins, supported by robust momentum in the Industrial Products segment. The Chemicals business is poised to contribute meaningfully in the medium term through continued product innovation and market expansion. Execution challenges in the...

Thermax (TMX)’s 4QFY25 performance reflected improved execution while order inflows remained weak. Its 4QFY25 revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 11.6%/10%/5% YoY.

Operating profit grew 36% y-o-y to Rs. 278 crore. OPM improved by 176 bps. In line with revenue
and operating profit growth adjusted PAT grew 24% y-o-y to Rs. 197 crore against expectation of
Rs. 180 crore.

Thermax reported unexciting Q1FY25 numbers as revenue grew 13% YoY to INR 21.8bn while EBITDA ascended 6% YoY to INR 1.4bn impacted by a one-off provision of INR 500m in the industrial infra segment.

Thermax (TMX) in its annual report outlined its strategy to innovate for energy transition, strengthen its solutions business, scale up sustainability and urbanizationoriented businesses, and drive digital transformation.

Company reported Revenue/operating profit/Adj. PAT of Rs. 2,764/273/190 crore, a growth of 19.6%/36.6%/22% y-o-y respectively

Thermax reported a growth of 15% YoY FY24 respectively, which is nearly half of the growth seen for the previous two fiscals. Order intake for the year was on the lower end and the order book now stand +4% over that of FY23.

Thermax 4QFY24 results beat our estimates, with in-line revenue and higherthan-expected PAT on strong margins. 4Q revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew by
20%/37%/20% YoY.

AMBER: Persistent near-term challenges; cut to SELL. CPI and IIP: Still some pain points on inflation. Credit Composition: Study on personal loans. HMCL: Healthy quarter but positives priced in. TMX: Improving order outlook; maintain HOLD. BANDHAN: Recovery on track. IGL: Legacy UP, new GAs can offset slowdown, reiterate BUY. ZYWL: Seasonally weak quarter

Q3 operating performance stable with EBITDA margin inching up 20bps YoY despite a Rs 100mn hit from cost overruns