Tata Motors Ltd. share price target

10 October 2019 Automobiles JLRs wholesale volumes were flat YoY (+34% MoM) at 53k units (our 4% YoY). JLRs retail volumes declined by ~0.5% YoY, as the recovery in China (+18% YoY) was offset by the decline in the UK (-6.5% YoY) and RoW (-13% YoY). China witnessed the third consecutive month of a recovery in volumes. Jaguars retail volumes declined ~15% YoY, led by a decrease in sales for all models, except I-Pace. LRs retail volumes grew ~7% YoY, driven by the ramp-up of new Evoque (+51%), RR (+11%) and RR Sport (+31%). Against challenging market headwinds, for the third consecutive month we have achieved double-digit growth in China, benefitting from our local turnaround plan and performing ahead of the broader market. Despite these negative market trends, Land Rover sales saw year-on-year growth in the quarter. A comprehensively updated and well-received new Discovery Sport will support this positive development in the months to come.

11 September 2019 Automobiles JLRs wholesale volumes declined 7.1% YoY (-5.2% MoM) to 39.6k units (our 4.7k units. JLRs retail volumes declined ~7% YoY with de-growth across markets (marginal in Europe). However, China sales grew ~17% YoY to 8.8k units. Jaguars retail volumes declined ~18% YoY, led by lower sales in models like XF, XK/E-pace and Others/F-types. XJ and I-Pace sales were higher at 291 and 903 units, respectively, in the month. LRs retail volumes declined marginally by 1.4% YoY owing to lower sales growth for Discovery, Freelander, RR and RR Velar. RR Evoque sales were up ~51% YoY to 5.4k units. the global market remains challenging, we have seen a second month of consecutive growth in China.

Q1FY20 consolidated revenue declined by 7.7% YoY on weaker sales volumes (-20.8% YoY). Standalone TML (S) revenue dropped by 19.9% YoY and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) revenue was down by 5.4% YoY. Adj. EBIT loss came in at Rs. 1,562cr vs. Rs. 548cr loss in Q1FY19, primarily on negative operating leverage from lower wholesale business. Adj. EBIT margin dropped 170bps YoY to -2.5%. Adj. loss after taxes stood at Rs. 3,590cr vs Rs. 1,902cr in Q1FY19 (Adj. loss per share at Rs. 10.6 vs. Rs. 5.6 in Q1FY19)....

Turnaround 2.0 intensified. Focused on doing the right things for long term success. Commercial Vehicles (CV) and Passenger Vehicles (PV) continues to focus on retails given challenging market backdrop. CV Wholesale (Dom) was down 16.0% while Retail (Dom)...

JLR base effect kicks in, India CV business- cyclicality to prevail! Thus far, Tata Motors' JLR brand has been suffering from a prolonged softness in sales volumes, with the China geography proving to be a particular pain point. Total JLR volumes for Q1FY20 were at 1.18 lakh units, down ~10% YoY. Encouragingly, however, in June 2019, JLR reported a volume growth of 15% YoY, albeit on a lower base. With base effect kicking in at JLR, going forward, we expect its volume growth to be in positive territory. However, it will still be marred by hovering concerns over Brexit...

Consol. revenue declined 8% YoY to INR614.7b (our estimate: INR564.9b). TTMT reported adj. net loss of INR36b (our estimate: loss of INR11.8b). JLR higher VME, op. deleverage impact margin: Net revenue declined 3% YoY to GBP5.1b, implying realization growth of 1.5% YoY to GBP48.7k (our estimate: GBP47.2k). EBIT margin was at -5.5% (our estimate: -4%), implying a contraction of 180bp YoY due to lower volumes and higher...

11 July 2019 Automobiles JLRs wholesale volumes grew 15% YoY (+8.3% MoM) to 43.2k units (our JLRs retail volumes declined ~10% YoY in Jun19, led by de-growth across markets (except UK), particularly in China (-12.3%) and Europe (-11.7%). Jaguars retail volumes fell ~8.5% YoY, led by a decline in sales in models like XF, F-pace and XK/E-pace, while I-Pace sales came in at ~1.6k units. LRs retail volume declined ~10% YoY due to lower sales across models, except RR Evoque (+3.4% YoY to 7k units). challenging conditions continue to impact other regions, we were pleased to see sales return to growth in the UK, where we are outperforming the market aided by higher sales of the new Range Rover Evoque, Land Rover Discovery, Jaguar I-PACE and the new Jaguar XE. At Land Rover, the new Range Rover Evoque luxury compact SUV continues to strengthen its global sales performance following its recent debut.

JLR's wholesale volumes declined 18.2% YoY (+12.5% MoM) to 39.9k units (in-line), including the China JV volumes that fell 40% YoY to 4.2k units

Macro environment is challenging as industry volumes in all its key markets have declined. China particularly has been bad, as for the first time in 25 years Chinese auto volumes have declined (~10%). However, JLR has gained market share in FY19 in four of the five markets (except China)

Sharing of costs (billions of dollars) is a more prudent way of investment in a technology (autonomous driving) that lacks a regulatory framework and possesses uncertain demand prospects. However, is widely acknowledged as the future of driving...