Supreme Industries Ltd. share price target

Scarcely helped by the pandemic, Supreme Industries reported most of the least alluring outcomes in recent past for its plastic goods volumes tumbled but by a little charming 19.4% to 91451 mt compared to 113428 mt in the year ago period. Consumer products and industrial products bore much of the brunt for they published volume decline of 70.5% and 54% respectively. Hardly weakish demand for agri-pipes, particularly rural, Tier III and Tier IV cities - boosted by GOI robust investment in infrastructure largely helped circumvent no unabysmal stress in demand...

Background: Supreme Industries (SI) is a plastic product manufacturer and the largest plastic processor in India, processing over 0.37mn MT annually. Company has four business verticals i.e. Plastic Piping (55%), Packaging Products (21%), Industrial Products (16%) and Consumer Products (7%). SI has 22 manufacturing plants situated across India. Company enjoys a significant market share across its business verticals; Plastic Piping (9.48%), Industrial Products (15%) and...

EBITDA margin declined by 50bps YoY to 11.1% on account of suboptimal revenue growth & weak operating performance. Q1 volume de-grew by 19% YoY, but we expect revival in revenue growth from H2FY21E, led by revival in rural & agri demand and gradual pick-up in business as Covid-19 related issues moderate. Though we are positive on long term growth outlook of SIL, the current premium valuation is not sustainable. We value SIL at P/E of...

Pent up demand in June 2020 drives recovery in Q1FY21 Volume growth was down ~19% YoY in Q1FY21 with a sharp decline in the volume of industrial, consumer product categories by 54%, 70%, respectively. However, strong pent up demand in June 2020 in the piping and packaging products categories restricted volume fall in the respective categories to the tune of ~12%, ~20%, respectively. While the company has gained market share in the piping products during Q1FY21, its cross laminated films category grew 40% in June 2020. Supreme sees good...

Revenues were flat YoY to Rs 55.1 billion in 2020. Despite the challenging external environment, it delivered strong gross margins of 35.1% YoY which was a growth of 315 bps. Operating cash flow for FY20 was Rs 5,371 mn as compared to Rs 5,557 mn in FY19. Free cash flow to the firm in FY20 was Rs 2,974 mn as compared to Rs 2,297 mn in FY19. Overall YoY volume...

Background: Supreme Industries (SI) is a plastic product manufacturer and the largest plastic processor in India, processing over 0.37mn MT annually. Company has four business verticals i.e. Plastic Piping (55%), Packaging Products (21%), Industrial Products (16%) and Consumer Products (7%). SI has 22 manufacturing plants situated across India. Company enjoys a significant market share across its business verticals; Plastic Piping (9.48%), Industrial Products (15%) and...

Supreme Industries Ltd (SIL) is India's leading player in plastic products; the wide range of offering includes Plastic Piping system, Packaging, Industrial and Consumer products . We upgrade to Accumulate, given improvement in margin profile driven by better product mix & lower cost. We expect revival in revenue growth from H2FY21E, led by rural & agri demand. Q4FY20 Revenue de-grew by 6% YoY, but PAT grew by 4% YoY on account of higher operating margin....

Supreme's packaging, industrial business performance in FY20 (down 8%, 24% YoY in FY20E, respectively) was impacted by low pricing in cross laminated films products, slowdown in the automotive industry. However, the strong performance of piping business in H1FY20 helped the company to clock segment revenue growth of 9% in FY20 and helped mitigate poor show of industrial segments, to some extent. We believe low construction and infra spending coupled with slow demand recovery of industrial products categories would weigh on volume growth in FY20-22E (we model...

Supreme Industries (SI) reported below-estimated Q4FY20 revenues (7% YoY) due to a 9% lockdown-led volume decline.

Supreme Industries Limited (SIL) delivered in-line revenue and net profit performance, while EBITDA margin beat our estimates led by lower input cost, higher contribution of value-added products and price hike in CPVC. Revenue declined by 6.6% y-o-y to Rs. 1,430.5 crore, in-line with our expectations, owing to substantial reduction of operations at various plants due to outbreak of COVID-19. EBITDA margins improved by 590 BPS y-o-y to 19.1%, exceeding our estimates, led by better product mix, higher contribution of value-added products, good inventory gains and support...