Astra Microwave Products Ltd. share price target

Astra Microwave (AMW) has reported better than expected Q1FY23 numbers. Revenue was up 25.8% YoY.

Order backlog is at Rs1,559cr, which is 2.6x FY21 sales. Order inflow was at Rs916cr, showing signs of improvement. We believe that headwinds like order inflow & execution delays have seen some improvement. While order inflow visibility has shown improvement in recent times. Order intake guidance of Rs750cr for FY22E is encouraging. Going ahead with given order execution mix, we expect EBITDA margin remain in the range of 12-13% versus 20% (5yr avg.). However, likely hit on margin profile is expected to hurt the profitability and valuations in the long run....

Astra Microwave Products (Astra) Q4 earnings was below our expectation mainly on account of low order booking in the previous quarters and slow pace of execution in Q4. Revenue for Q4 came in at Rs. 1,132 Mn lower by 33% compared to Q4FY18 and PAT for the same period was down by 75% to Rs. 73 Mn.

Order intake guidance of Rs650cr for FY20E is encouraging. Going ahead with pick-up in execution of higher margin domestic orders, we expect EBITDA margin to improve. However, given steep fall in EBITDA margin in Q3FY19, we lower...

Dismal Performance from Astra Micro: Astra Microwave Products (Astra Micro) revenue declined by 19% to Rs. 444 mn and posted net loss of Rs. 46 mn in Q2FY19. Revenue declined due to deferment of 2 orders in the defence segment that were facing technical difficulties in execution.

Revenue Mix Impacts Profitability in Q1FY19: Astra Microwave Products (Astra) revenue for Q1FY19 grew by 15% as the company maintains execution phase of the existing order book. However, profitability was severely impacted as the revenue mix was unfavourable for margin expansion.

Given execution of better margin domestic orders, we factor EBITDA margin in the range of 28% vs. 22% (last 5 year average) over FY18-FY20E. To benefit from improvement in demand for radars and subsystems due to ongoing indigenous missiles programmes. Further, company's focus in new projects will drive future growth. However, we lower our earnings estimates for FY19E by 12% to factor in delay in certain orders during FY18. Considering the earnings downgrade, we lower our valuation to P/E 13x...

Q4FY18 Margins in-line with Guidance: Astra Microwave Product (Astra) revenue grew by 6% in Q4FY18 to Rs. 1692 mn and earnings dropped by 24% to Rs. 297 mn largely on account of product mix.

Guidance Revised Partially for FY18E: Astra management maintained FY18E full year guidance for Order book and Revenue at ~ Rs.6,000mn and ~ Rs.4,500mn respectively. However, PAT guidance has been substantially revised to Rs.450-540mn from earlier Rs.600-650mn.

Astra Delivers on Guidance; Revises FY18E Guidance: Astras revenue (net) and PAT for FY17 reached to Rs.4,243mn and Rs.566mn which are in-line with guided revenue and PAT of Rs.4,200mn and Rs.570mnrespectively, these are higher than our estimates by 2.0% on revenue front and 130bps on PAT margin for FY17.